1. and Decadal Prediction Systems
JMA/MRI
One-month, Seasonal
and Decadal Prediction Systems
Tamaki Yasuda
Meteorological Research Institute,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Yuhei Takaya
GPC Tokyo (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting
10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

2. History of JMA One-month & Seasonal EPSs
1959.6
1996.3
2003.3
present
Short-range GCM
6 Mar.
One-month EPS
Seasonal EPS
Mar
1996
2001
2003
2006
Sep
2007
2008
Feb
2010
2014
2015
One-month
EPS
T63
180km
L30
M10
T106
110km
L40
M26
TL159
M50
L60
TL319
55km
Seasonal
M31
TL95
M51
CGCM TL95
CGCM TL159
AGCM A
CGCM
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

3. Current and Next Versions of JMA Seasonal EPS
JMA/MRI-CGCM ( Current )
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 ( Next )
Atmosphere
(JMA-AGCM)
TL95L40, ~180km, Up to 0.4hPa
TL159L60 , ~110km, Up to 0.1hPa
Stochastic Tendency Perturbation
GHG forcing in RCP4.5 scenario
Ocean
(MRI.COM)
(Tsujino et al 2010)
1.0º (lon) x 0.3-1º (lat) L51
75ºS-75ºN Ocean
Sea-ice climatology
1.0º (lon) x º (lat) L53
Tripolar Global Ocean
Sea-ice model
Coupler (Scup)
(Yoshimura and Yukimoto 2008)
1-hour coupling interval
Momentum and heat flux adjustments
No flux adjustment
Initial Condition
Atmosphere: JRA25
Ocean: MOVE/MRI.COM-G
T, S&SSH (Usui et al. 2006)
Atmosphere: JRA55
Ocean: MOVE/MRI.COM-G2
T, S & SSH
Hindcast: 5 member ensembles
started from 1st Feb, May, Aug and Nov during
Verification data： JRA55, GPCPv2.2 and COBE-SST&ICE
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

4. Improved Asian Summer Monsoon
Observation (GPCP)
JJA daily precipitation climatology for (mm/day)
[forecast from 1st May]
[mm/day]
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
Improved representation of the Asian summer monsoon
Higher horizontal resolution in AGCM
Seasonal typhoon forecast
S. Hirahara
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

5. JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
Linear Trend of Surface Temperature
Linear trend of surface temperature
(Sep )
JRA55
starting from May
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

6. Sea Ice Initialization
Sea ice in Ocean Data Assimilation System (MOVE-G2)
Sea ice concentration anomaly in Sep. 2007
OBS
MOVE
Arctic Sea Ice Area
　　OBS　　　 MOVE
Toyoda et al. 2012
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

7. Forecast of Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice Area started from May
Arctic Sea Ice Area in September
Observation (COBE-ICE)
Lead time of 2 months ACC=0.60
Lead time of 5 months ACC=0.37
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

8. Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
ACC of NINO3.4 SST
ACC
ACC
JMA/MRI-CGCM2(Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
from February
from May
ACC
ACC
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM3 (Current)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
from August
from November
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

9. Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
RMSE of NINO3.4 SST
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
RMSE
RMSE
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
from February
from May
RMSE
RMSE
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (Next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (Current)
from August
from November
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

10. JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
SST ACC (starting from Feb.)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
May
Aug.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

11. JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
SST RMSE (starting from Feb.)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
May
Aug.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

12. JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
Z500 ACC (starting from Feb.)
JMA/MRI-CGCM2 (next)
JMA/MRI-CGCM (current)
May
Aug.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

13. Summary (Seasonal Prediction System)
The new version of JMA/MRI seasonal EPS using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model are developing.
- TL195L60 of the JMA atmospheric model
- Global Ocean Model (MRI.COM) including sea ice model
- no sea surface flux adjustments
- JRA55 and the Ocean Data Assimilation System (MOVE-G2)
for initial conditions
Some improvements of reproducibility related to model developments are confirmed.
This system will replace the current system in 2015.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

14. Decadal Prediction by MRI-CGCM3
MRI-CGCM3 for CMIP5 (Yukimoto et al. 2011)
- AGCM: modified JMA AGCM
cumulus convection, cloud, etc
Resolution: TL159L48 (Model top: 0.01hPa)
- OGCM: MRI.COM3 (Tsujino et al. 2010)
Resolution: 1 x 0.5 L51 (triploar global)
Decadal Experiments (1960-, every 5 years)
- 9 ensemble members: 3 (perturbation) x 3 (1st Jul., Oct. and Jan.)
Initial data
- Ocean part of the CGCM is initialized with monthly T & S anomalies.
1960 70 80 90
2000 10 20 30
Hindcast (9)
Data Assimilation (3)
Near-term Prediction(9)
Historical (3)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

15. Decadal Prediction by MRI-CGCM3
RMSE: 0.05℃ Corr: 0.95
RMSE: 0.05℃ Corr: 0.50
RMSE: 0.12℃ Corr: -0.81
M. Ishii
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

16. Decadal Prediction by MRI-CGCM3
Decadal Prediction of sea level
in the area around Japan
Annual Mean Dynamic Height (m)
Aleutian Low
Oyashio
Westerlies
Kuroshio
tide gauge altimetry assimilation
Sea level anomaly in the area around Japan ( E, 30-46N)
prediction
assimilation
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

17. Ensemble Prediction System
New JMA One-month
Ensemble Prediction System
Yuhei Takaya GPC Tokyo　(Japan Meteorological Agency)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting
10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

18. Configurations of JMA One-month EPS
Operation
TL319 (new)
TL159 (current)
AGCM
GSM1403C
GSM1103C
Resolution (model top)
TL319 L60 (0.1 hPa)
TL159 L60 (0.1 hPa)
Initial perturbation
BGM and LAF
Model ensemble
Stochastic physics scheme -
Forecast Issue day
Thursday
Friday
Ensemble size
50 (25 BGM ensembles and 2 initial dates)
SST/sea-ice (prescribed)
MGDSST (0.25deg, with satellite obs.)
COBE-SST (1deg, in-situ obs. only)
Hindcast
Period
1981 – 2010 (3 initial dates in a month)
5 (BGM ensembles)
Initial condition
JRA-55
JRA-25
Verification data
JRA-55, GPCPv2.2
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

19. Z500 anomaly correlation (DJF)
Anomaly correlations for 4-week mean Z500 at a lead time of 3 days (day 3-30) starting from Dec-Feb
TL319 (new)
TL159 (current)
Verified against JRA-55 during the hindcast period of
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

20. Z500 anomaly correlation in N.H.
ACC
RMSE
Verified against JRA-55 during the hindcast period of
The scores are improved for all seasons.
Error bars show ranges of 95% confidence intervals by a bootstrap method (1000 samplings) .
Courtesy Ryoji Nagasawa
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

21. ACC scores w.r.t. lead time
Z500 ACC (NH, DJF)
MSLP ACC (TR, DJF)
TL319
TL159
TL319
TL159
ACC
ACC
Forecast time (day)
Forecast time (day)
7-day averaged forecast fields are verified against JRA-55.
Error bars show ranges of 95% confidence intervals by the bootstrap method (1000 samplings) .
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

22. ACC scores w.r.t. lead time
T850 ACC (NH, DJF)
T850 ACC (TR, DJF)
TL319
TL159
TL319
TL159
ACC
ACC
Forecast time (day)
Forecast time (day)
7-day averaged forecast fields are verified against JRA-55.
Improvements in other seasons more-or-less resembles to this result.
JMA decided to change the forecast issue day (Fri. Thu.) to improve users’ convenience thanks to skill gains of this upgrade.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

23. Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
Probabilistic forecast verification Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) NH TR SH
TL319
TL159
4 week (3-30 days)
Z500 (above)
75.3
74.0
89.0
88.9
71.2
69.6
(below)
75.7
74.1
86.6
87.1
69.3
T850 (above)
74.7
73.1
79.5
78.0
68.5
66.4
74.3
72.7
79.7
78.2
69.0
66.6
SLP (above)
74.9
73.2
79.1
69.5
67.9
75.4
73.5
79.8
79.2
70.3
68.3
T2m (above)
76.8
76.7
76.9
71.5
70.6
76.2
76.3
72.2
70.8
1 week (3-9 days)
90.5
91.3
90.4
82.7
78.5
90.6
89.7
83.0
88.8
84.4
81.5
80.8
75.8
89.3
87.4
89.4
87.2
87.0
85.6
81.4
77.5
85.7
82.0
77.3
77.7
74.4
87.6
86.0
78.6
77.8
75.0
2 week (10-16 days)
72.6
84.2
83.4
65.0
63.0
72.5
82.5
81.6
65.1
69.2
75.2
62.4
60.2
71.0
69.1
74.5
72.8
62.1
59.7
71.3
62.8
71.6
69.7
75.5
64.9
63.2
73.0
66.7
64.7
70.7
72.0
66.9
64.4
3-4 weeks (17-30 days)
60.8
59.8
82.3
59.0
58.5
61.3
79.4
58.3
60.6
72.3
57.0
56.5
60.4
58.8
57.5
56.6
59.4
57.9
57.4
59.5
69.4
58.1
57.6
64.5
62.9
71.7
63.7
64.0
71.1
64.8
63.8
DJF NH TR SH
TL319
TL159
4 week (3-30 days)
Z500 (above)
72.2
70.8
83.5
83.3
69.7
67.8
(below)
71.2
70.0
82.4
82.1
69.5
67.7
T850 (above)
68.8
76.5
75.0
67.4
65.3
71.4
69.3
76.6
75.5
65.5
SLP (above)
69.4
74.8
74.1
67.9
66.4
69.6
75.1
73.8
68.5
66.9
T2m (above)
73.2
71.9
74.0
73.9
68.6
73.7
72.3
74.4
68.7
1 week (3-9 days)
86.3
84.5
87.7
86.1
82.5
79.2
86.2
84.4
78.9
84.8
81.5
78.0
79.8
76.2
82.6
83.7
81.3
80.6
77.1
84.7
81.6
80.9
77.8
79.9
74.5
77.2
80.3
75.7
74.7
77.3
2 week (10-16 days)
66.5
78.1
64.4
62.3
66.2
64.6
77.7
64.5
63.7
62.4
60.2
65.6
63.4
71.5
69.8
62.5
59.7
65.4
64.1
63.2
60.8
63.5
70.3
62.8
61.2
70.2
63.8
61.8
70.1
63.9
61.5
3-4 weeks (17-30 days)
60.0
58.4
75.8
57.5
56.2
59.2
57.8
57.3
56.4
57.4
55.4
54.5
59.6
58.0
69.0
55.6
54.6
56.7
64.2
55.7
57.6
56.1
66.0
55.8
64.7
63.3
60.1
59.8
65.1
59.9
59.5
JJA
improved
degraded
neutral
*with no statiscical test
*ROC scores
multiplied by 100.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

24. Extreme Forecast Index / Warning Map
UK Flood Feb 2014
Forecast, 7-day Ave. 7-day lead
Analysis (JRA-55)
EFIR >= 0.8, EFIR >= 0.5
The EFI products will be released soon from Tokyo Climate Website.
NMHS users only (password-protected)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

25. Extreme Forecast Index / Warning Map
UK Flood Feb 2014
Forecast, 7-day Ave. 2-day lead
Analysis (Precip from JRA-55)
EFIR >= 0.8, EFIR >= 0.5
The EFI products will be released soon from Tokyo Climate Website.
NMHS users only (password-protected)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

26. Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
Summary
The new version of the JMA One-month EPS was introduced in 6 March, Changes include:
Upgrade of the model resolution (~55 km),
Stochastic physics scheme,
Higher resolution SST/sea ice boundary conditions,
JRA-55 analysis for hindcast initial conditions.
Improvements in almost all of aspects are confirmed by the comprehensive verifications. The performance gain corresponds to roughly a lead time of 1 day.
A new product (EFI) will be available from Tokyo Climate Center soon.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

27. Thank you for your kind attention.
The cherry blossoms of Mount Shiude and the Seto Inland Sea (near my hometown)

28. Possible contributing factors for improvements
Higher horizontal resolution (110  55 km)
JRA-55 analysis for atmospheric initial conditions
JRA-55 land analysis for land initial conditions
Lower boundary conditions (MGDSST, interannual variability of sea ice extent)
Stochastic physics scheme, and a few changes in physical parameterizations
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

29. Model climatology of eddy activity (December)
TL319-JRA55
TL159-JRA55
TL319-TL159
Eddy activity diagnosed with high-freq. (cut-off: 10 days) 300-hPa winds.
Contours: model climatology
Colors : differences
I.C.: 31 Dec. during
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

30. Jet biases and convergence of eddy momentum flux
U300 (TL319-JRA55)
U300 (TL319-TL159)
du/dt (TL319-JRA55)
du/dt (TL319-TL159)
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

31. Systematic biases (Z500, DJF )
TL319 (new)
TL159 (current)
[m]
[m]
The improvements are possibly related to representation of the eddy vorticity flux.
The stochastic physics scheme may also have an effect, this point should be further investigated.
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK

32. Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, 10-14 March 2014, Exeter, UK
Atmospheric blocking
Blocking frequency (Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) Index)
February ( ), I.C.: 31 Jan
JRA-55
TL319
TL159
Blocking frequency
Longitude
cf.) Matueda et al JGR
Jung et al JC
Center Latitude: 40-70N,
Courtesy Akihiko Shimpo
Joint CBS/CCl ET-OPSLS Meeting, March 2014, Exeter, UK