Roma 24 marzo Organizzazione Key4biz

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Presentation transcript:

Roma 24 marzo Organizzazione Key4biz FORUM 2011 Andrea Fumagalli Principal, A.T. Kearney Roma 24 marzo Organizzazione Key4biz

Sostenibilità della Rete e Nuovi Modelli di Business Avaya Forum Intervento di Andrea Fumagalli, Principal A.T. Kearney 24 Marzo 2011

Enabling Technology / Services3 Overview of the Internet Value Chain Content Rights Online Services Enabling Technology / Services3 Connectivity User Interface User-Generated Content Text/ Images/ Voice/ Video Media Rights Owners Video Audio Books Gaming Adult Content Editorial Content Search Transactions Advertising Online ad agencies Online ad networks/ exchanges Third party ad servers Ratings/Analytics Services Support Technology Web-hosting Web-design/development Content Management Applications Software Media Players Internet browsers Billing & Payments Online billing and payment system providers Devices PCs Smart phones Games consoles Other Internet access hardware Operating systems Communications Entertainment General/Vertical Content User Retail Internet Access Core Network Interchange Con l'aumento esponenziale del traffico dati su Internet, generato soprattutto dalle applicazioni video, cresce la domanda di banda e di infrastrutture tecnologiche atte a supportarla. Il sistema rischia di implodere per lo squilibrio insito nell'attuale modello di business: per chi deve costruire e finanziare le reti i ricavi non crescono in proporzione all'investimento, mentre i fornitori di servizi over the top, che generano il traffico e hanno bisogno di ampiezze crescenti di banda, non hanno incentivi economici all'ottimizzazione dell'uso delle infrastrutture. D'altro canto, la prevalenza di piani tariffari flat fa sì che gli utenti ad elevato utilizzo di servizi bandwidth hungry causino esternalità negative di congestione per la maggioranza di utenti, che usano Internet più limitatamente. In questo quadro, A.T. Kearney ha condotto uno studio internazionale che stima gli investimenti necessari per adeguare la capacità della rete alla domanda crescente di traffico e illustra nuovi possibili modelli di business a beneficio di tutti gli attori della catena del valore. I risultati della ricerca costituiscono lo spunto per il dibattito tra istituzioni e operatori industriali. Fra l’altro lo studio è stato recentemente presentato alla Commisione Europea

f Evolution of market capitalisation by value chain market (base 100 in 2004) * * * * * * * * * * * *

Internet as a two-sided market Content Rights Online Services Enabling Technology / Services Connectivity User Interface Connectivity Providers Online Service Provider Retail connectivity provider End Users Internet Core RAN Enterprise Connectivity Provider Backhaul/ Aggregation Last Mile

Internet traffic expected growth Europe total Internet traffic projection - PB/month - Fixed Mobile * * YoY: * * YoY:* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Price signals in the current Internet model Online Service Provider End User Traffic Traffic Very weak price signal linked with traffic generation No price signal linked with traffic generation Current traffic delivery charge Internet access charge Time Time

Capital intensity across the Internet value chain CAPEX intensity vs. revenue growth 2009-14 by segment - B2C - (CAPEX as % of revenues vs. revenue growth) * * Fuelled by video content growth * Revenue growth remains modest due to competition * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 2009 value of CAPEX Investment

Primary source of Internet traffic Top 10 websites by country ─ US vs. selected European countries (as of 3Q 2010) Spain Germany Google.de Facebook.com Google.com Youtube.com Ebay.de Wikipedia.org Amazon.de Yahoo.com Spiegel.com Twitter.com United States Google.com Facebook.com Yahoo.com Youtube.com Amazon.com Wikipedia.org Ebay.com Craiglist.com Twitter.com Blogger.com United Kingdom Google.co.uk Facebook.com Google.com Youtube.com Yahoo.com BBC.co.uk Ebay.co.uk Windows live Wikipedia.org Amazon.co.uk Italy Google.it Facebook.com YouTube.com Google.com Yahoo.com Wikipedia.org Libero.it Windows Live La Repubblica Ebay.it VS.

A new economic model for the Internet is required Options considered Choice 1 Modification of Retail Price Schemes New revenue streams 2 Traffic Dependent Charges for All Traffic Internet Value Chain Hybrid solution 3 Enhanced Quality Services Over the Public Internet 4 Solve structural problem of lack of price signals Enhanced Quality Services Based on Bilateral Agreements