Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Agriculture  Mining  Construction  Manufacturing

Industry Individual companies conducting similar business  Tourism  Hi-Tech

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)  Eventually all Labor Market Information publications will use the NAICS.  Developed in cooperation with Canada and Mexico, NAICS lets analysis cross borders. NAICS Based on: work performed by an industry. SIC Based on: What is produced by an industry.

Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Accountant  Secretary  Flight Attendant  Surgeon  Software Engineer  Network Analyst

Occupation Work in which people engage to earn a living  Customer Service Representative  Administrative Assistant

Colorado Employment and Recessions "A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

Average Industry Salary

ES-202  Quarterly report  Measures industry employment and average wages  All counties and statewide  Derived from quarterly Unemployment Insurance reports  Accounts for about 98% of Colorado employers.

Current Employment Statistics  Monthly survey of businesses  Estimates levels of employment by industry  Statewide, Denver-Boulder, and Colorado Springs.  Current non-farm employment, hours and earnings by industry group.  Benchmarking

Occupational Employment Statistics  Wage Survey of 22,000 employers  Employers  Job Seekers  Occupational Projections  Release in November and May each year

Occupational Employment Outlook  Estimates outlook for 700 occupations –Fastest Growing –Rapidly Declining  Published every two years  Projects 10 year span  Just released through 2012

Employment Outlook: Projections Process  Labor force –Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

Number of live births, Baby boomers Millions

Population 2000 Millions Men Women Age Source: Bureau of the Census

Population, projected 2010 Millions Men Women Age Source: Bureau of the Census

Colorado’s Population 2000 Men Women Age Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

Colorado’s Population Men Women Age Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

Population growth rates Annual rates of change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics projected

The civilian labor force, ages 16 and older, will grow by 1.1 percent annually between 2002 and Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The size of the civilian labor force ages will increase significantly Projected numerical change, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 65 and over 55 to to to to to 24

Labor force participation rate by sex Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent, and projected Total Men Women projected

Women’s labor force growth outpaces men’s Percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics projected

Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up WomenMen Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force projected

Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites Percent change, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Whites remain the largest group of workers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent of labor force

Colorado

Employment Outlook: Projections Process –Labor force  Economic growth –Industry employment –Occupational employment

A healthy economy is projected through 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Selected economic variables GDP (annual growth rate, projected ) Unemployment rate, 2012 (assumed) Productivity (annual growth rate, projected )

The projections assume a 3.0 percent real GDP growth rate Average annual rate of change projected

Average annual rate of change Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, comparison of selected business cycle expansionary periods projected

Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions Average annual rate of change

Percent The projections assume a 5.2 percent unemployment rate

Employment Outlook: Projections Process –Labor force –Economic growth  Industry output and employment –Occupational employment

Nationally, total employment is projected to increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 21.6 million Millions of jobs projected Total employment Nonfarm wage and salary employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total employment is projected to increase by 23 percent or 551,600. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 272,000 Millions of jobs Colorado

Service-providing industries continue to lead employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Goods-producingService-providing projected Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted for nearly half of total output in 2002 Billions of dollars Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Education and health services and professional and business services accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2002 Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

244,085 In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services and Health Care & Social Services accounted for nearly a third of total employment in 2002 Service Providing Goods Producing

Education and health services and professional and business services account for nearly half of projected total employment growth Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

295,046 Service Providing Goods Producing Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services, Health Care & Social Services and Educational Services will account for more than a third of projected total 2012 employment

Three industries are projected to have declines in employment Thousands of non-farm wage and salary jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In Colorado, only the Utilities industry is projected to decline

Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries over are computer related, two are health related. Software publishers Management, scientific and technical consulting services Community care facilities for the elderly Computer systems design and related services Employment services Vocational rehabilitation services Ambulatory health care services Water, sewage and other systems Internet services and data processing services Child day care services Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent change

Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing detailed industries two are health related, two are transportation related and two are manufacturing related.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  Detailed industries with: – employment growth greater than 14.8% – and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3.3%.  These industries accounted for: – 21.3% of employment in 2002 – and are projected to account for 45% of employment growth from National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth  If you include industries with: –faster than average employment growth –and average annual output growth of at least 2% per year:  These industries accounted for: – 38% of employment in 2002 – and are projected to account for 65% of employment growth from National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Manufacturing –Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)* –Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000) –Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000) –Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000) –Other wood product mfg (67,000) –Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000) –Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000) –Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000) –Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000) –Forging and stamping (18,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Utilities and waste management –Water, sewage and other systems (23,000)*  Transportation and warehousing –Truck transportation, couriers and messengers (507,000) –Scenic and sightseeing transportation (100,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Information –Internet services, data processing (244,000)* –Software publishers (174,000) –Motion picture and sound recording industries (116,000)  Financial activities –Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000) –Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000) –Securities, commodity contracts (124,000) –Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Education and health services –Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)* –Ambulatory health care services (670,000) –Hospitals (632,000) –Individual, family, community and voc rehab services (597,000) –Nursing care and residential mental health facilities (559,000) –Child day care services (382,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Leisure and hospitality –Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)* –Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (410,000) –Traveler accommodation (293,000) –Performing art companies, promoters, agents, managers, and independent artists (37,000) –Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions (24,000) –RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and boarding houses (8,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year  Other services –Religious, grant making and giving services, and social advocacy organizations (428,000) * –Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000) –Personal care services (144,000) –Other personal services (51,000) –Commercial and industrial equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance (29,000)  State and local government –State and local electric utilities (14,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, National

Colorado Employment Growth ,480

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year Colorado  Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023) – Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139) – Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services (7,658) – Specialized Design Services (977) – Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369) – Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866) – Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (3,456) – Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518)

Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year  Health Care & Social Assistance (78,480) –Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758) –Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811) –Home Health Care Services (4,898) –Outpatient Care Centers (5,082) –Individual and Family Services (5,670) –General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540) –Offices of Physicians (11,275) –Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225) –Child Day Care Services (4,329) –Offices of Dentists (4,039) –Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033) –Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)

Colorado  Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 ) – Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381) – Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events (440) – Gambling Industries (1,775) – Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275) – Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552) – Amusement Parks and Arcades (537) – Spectator Sports (480) Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Colorado  Transportation & Warehousing (21,078) –Support Activities for Road Transportation (784) –Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595) –Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586) –Freight Transportation Arrangement (847) –Warehousing and Storage (4,146) –Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145) –Urban Transit Systems (225) –Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605) –Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137) Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

 Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 35,738 –Services to Buildings and Dwellings 15,877 –Investigation and Security Services 4,089 –Business Support Services 5,625 –Waste Collection 866 –Other Support Services 1,735  Educational Services 55,912 Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Employment Outlook: Projections Process –Labor force –Economic growth –Industry employment  Occupational employment

There are 22 major occupation groups  Of these, 14 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they: –Accounted for 45% of employment in 2002 –And are projected to account for 65% of employment change National

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (14.8%) Percent change, projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than 1 million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands of jobs, projected Percent change projected to be greater than average (14.8%) Percent change projected to be less than average

Colorado Top 15 Growth Occupations

Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Millions of jobs, projected

Six of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are computer related Percent change, projected Medical assistants Network systems and data communications analysts Social and human service assistants Home health aides Medical records and health information technicians Physical therapist aides Computer software engineers, applications Computer software engineers, systems software Physical therapist assistants 59 Physicians assistants Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected Registered nurses General and operations managers Waiters and waitresses Postsecondary teachers Retail salespersons Customer service representatives Combined food preparation and serving Cashiers, except gaming Janitors and cleaners Nursing aides, orderlies, attendants

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Home health aides Personal and home care aides Receptionists and information clerks Security guards Office clerks, general Teacher assistants All other business operations specialists Sales, whole/ mfg, except tech & science Truck drivers, light or delivery

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster than average (14.8%) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Numerical change in thousands, projected Landscaping and groundskeeping workers All other teachers, primary, secondary, adult Elementary school teachers, except special education Medical assistants Maintenance and repair workers, general Accountants and auditors

Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Physicians and surgeons Chief executives Podiatrists Lawyers Optometrists Computer/information system mgrs Marketing managers Health diagnosing and treating Sales managers Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Radiation therapists All other computer specialists Nuclear medicine technologists Registered nurses Diagnostic medical sonographers Forensic science technicians Computer support specialists Respiratory therapists Paralegal and legal assistants Dental hygienists Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Top ten occupations generally requiring long- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Elevator installers and repairers Flight attendants Transit and railroad police Electricians Fine artists (painters, sculptors, illustrators) Police and sheriff patrol officers All other media and communication workers Actors Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters Musicians and singers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate- term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings 2002 average annual earnings Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Sales reps, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific Tapers All other communication equipment workers Sheet metal workers All other mechanics, installers and repairers Drywall and ceiling tile installers Painters, transportation equipment Hazardous materials removal workers All other sales and related $63,4600

Colorado computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the highest rate

Colorado most job losses

In Colorado expect a slight increase in the proportion of jobs requiring Bachelor's degrees or higher 896 thousand jobs 683 thousand jobs 1,937 thousand jobs 1,614 thousand jobs

In Colorado, about 30% of job growth will be from positions requiring a post-secondary education

Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher

Education Pays for Coloradans