Adaptation and Health Impact Assessment Martin Birley BirleyHIA

© BirleyHIA 2 Contents About health Health impacts of CC Energy needs of adaptation Health impacts of adaptation

CC and health literature Managing the health effects of climate change, Costello et al, Lancet (2009) The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, Ed. Kovats (2008) © BirleyHIA 3

Health definition Health is not merely the absence of disease and infirmity, but a state of complete physical, mental, social, and spiritual well-being BirleyHIA 4

© BirleyHIA 5 Health determinants Environmental Social

Temperature as health determinant 1ºC  UK 1-3%  All cause mortality 4.5%  Food poisoning 6.0%  Respiratory cause mortality © BirleyHIA 6

Current annual health effect of CC 300,000 deaths 325 million seriously affected 4 billion people vulnerable 500 million at extreme risk Inequality © BirleyHIA 7 Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) Anatomy of A Silent Crisis

Inequality and health © BirleyHIA 8 Health Wealth CC amplifies existing health risks and inequalities

Migration as adaptation Matter of choice or survival? 25-50M by 2010, M by 2050 Mental health impacts © BirleyHIA 9

Energy needs of adaptation “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable.” International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook, Nov 2008

Source: David Murphy – The Oil Drum.

Energy intensity © BirleyHIA 12

Energy gap UK BirleyHIA 13 Emissions, Availability Renewables Policy/project lifetime Gap

Health co-benefits of adaptation example BirleyHIA 14 Housing planned round public transport, cycling, local shops and home-working Reduce premature death from air pollution Improved physical, social and mental health and well-being

Conclusion Adaptation strategies should be Assessed for health impacts Assessed for inequality impacts Low emission Energy constrained © BirleyHIA 15

© BirleyHIA 16 END