C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Root Causes, Facilitators and Underlying Conditions of Terrorism Army Science Board 19 September 2006

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Agenda  Goal: Brief overview of the spectrum of topics addressed in the academic literature on root causes, facilitators and underlying conditions of terrorism  Underlying Conditions: Local  Underlying Conditions: Global  Facilitating Ideologies of Violence  Summary  What to Do? Root Causes, Facilitators and Underlying Conditions of Terrorism

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Underlying Conditions: Local Could includeCould include political, economic and social conditions, before terrorism –Unemployment –Socio-demographic pressures –Authoritarian/repressive regimes –Ethnic fissures (Tamils, Chechens) Chaos & capacity –Weak/failing states These conditions exist in numerous places without history of terrorism –Think globally, act locally? (e.g., London, Madrid) Expectations Opportunities

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Underlying Conditions: Global CCould include global animosities –e.g., Sunni vs. Shia CCould foreign policies –U.S. relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran –Democracy mandate? –Perceptions (bias/hypocrisy) –State-sponsored terror Energy dependence facilitates funding streams for violent groups as well as vulnerabilities for industrialized nations Demands/Grievances Power to enact change

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Other Global Conditions & Facilitators Global weapons proliferation (especially in weak/failing states) Technology –Communication and transportation shrinks time and space; enable networked forms of terrorism (including fundraising aspects) –Weapons: invention of dynamite helped launch capabilities Global criminal networks –Profit motive –Money laundering –Trafficking in drugs, humans, explosives, other ‘bad stuff’ Ideologies fuel both local and global perceptions of injustices and need for action/retribution

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Facilitating Ideologies of Violence  Nationalist (e.g., Anti-colonial groups)  Left-wing (e.g., radical Communists revolutionaries)  Right Wing (often target race and ethnicity)  Anarchist  Religious (e.g., militias, jihadists, etc.- “attack on Islam”)  Others (e.g., apocalyptic, charismatic cults, philosophies of “Man is evil” - Hobbes, et al.)  Overall: These all reflect the importance of perceptions, emotions, strategic influence, information warfare; The Vision Thing

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies Summary  Economic opportunities (lack thereof)  Political conditions (distribution of power)  Chaos & capacity (weak/failing states)  Think global, act local?  Global animosities  Foreign policies (incl. state sponsorship)  Energy dependence  Weapons proliferation  Technology  Criminal Networks  Ideologies for Action (Retribution?)  Other grievances...

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies What to do?  Economic and political dimensions  Create economic & political opportunities to meet aspirations  Consider foreign policy dimensions (state sponsorship, bias)  Chaos & capacity  Law enforcement, border security; containment  Weapons proliferation & criminal networks  Pressure states and private companies to prevent  Energy dependence  Alternatives to fossil fuels  The battleground of ideologies is particularly important for attacking the motivation and morale of terrorists in Iraq  Exploit ideological vulnerabilities

C OMBATING T ERRORISM C ENTER at West Point James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism Studies “You have to be lucky everyday – We only have to be lucky once” - IRA Bomber Questions?