Economic and Manufacturing Outlook Presented by: Dan Meckstroth, Ph.D. Vice President and Chief Economist

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Presentation transcript:

Economic and Manufacturing Outlook Presented by: Dan Meckstroth, Ph.D. Vice President and Chief Economist

Yuan and Euro Exchange Rates Source(s): U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics and MAPI Euro Appreciation Has More Impact on the U.S. Than The Yuan

Manufacturing PMI Source(s): Left – China’s Bureau of Statistics Right - China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and HSBC China Manufacturing Production Weaker Than Reported Power and Steel Production and Industrial Value-added

Change in Prices by Commodity *U.S. Hot Rolled Sheet and Strip Source(s): Left – IMF, Right – IMF and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Deflation in Commodity Prices Change in Commodity Prices Metal Percent change in a 3- Month Moving Average Ending in July Aluminum-7 Cooper-16 Nickel-34 Lead-13 Zinc-2 Steel*-21 EnergyDollars Per Brent Oil (Brl)-44 US Gas (MMBtu)-36

Supply Induced “Good” Deflation Price of Oil and Gas Source(s): U.S. EIA and MAPI

A Sudden, Rapid Appreciation of the Dollar Trade Weighted Currency Index Source(s): Federal Reserve Board

U.S. Foreign Trade Prices Source(s): U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics and MAPI Deflation in U.S. Foreign Trade Prices

Consumers Drive Growth Contribution to GDP Growth F=Forecast Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and MAPI

Consumer Spending Growth Driven By Jobs Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending and Job Growth Source(s): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Inventory Levels Rose In the First Quarter Source(s): U.S. Census Bureau An Inventory Correction Likely in 2015 Q2

Federal Reserve Senior Lending Officer Survey and Capital Investment Growth Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis and MAPI Lending Survey Signals Decelerating Investment Growth

2015 H1 $BillionsPercent Change Manufacturing Food/beverage/tobacco6.68 Chemical Plastic/rubber3.266 Nonmetallic mineral1.459 Fabricated metal Computer/electronic/electrical Transportation equipment Other manufacturing Manufacturing Construction Put-in-Place, at Annual Rate Major Comment About the Slide Source(s): U.S. Census Bureau

GDP GrowthManufacturing Production Growth Impact of ChangeRevisionPrevious Impact of ChangeRevisionPrevious May Source(s): Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve Board GDP and Manufacturing Production Revisions Key Economic Statistics Revised Down

Manufacturing Industrial Production Source(s): Federal Reserve Board and MAPI U.S. Manufacturing Is Recovered

GDP Expenditure Categories Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change (F)2016(F)2017(F) Gross Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment Information Processing Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Intellectual Property Products Structures Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government MAPI Economic Forecast F=Forecast Source(s): MAPI Foundation, August 2015

Economic Indicators Percent Change or Level as Specified (F)2016(F)2017(F) Prices (% change) Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Energy ($) Imported Crude Oil ($ per barrel) $89.6$45.6$48.5$63.1 Natural Gas Henry Hub Price ($mmbtu) $4.4$2.9$3.4$3.9 Other Key Measures Nonfarm Inventory Change (Billion 2009$) $65$87$44$42 Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Federal Surplus (NIPA, Billion $) -$632-$583-$576-$589 Current Account Balance (Billion $) -$390-$426-$383-$445 Labor Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Production (% change) Manufacturing (SIC Basis) Computers & Electronic Products Non-High Tech Manufacturing MAPI Economic Forecast F=Forecast Source(s): MAPI Foundation, August 2015

Industry Inflation-Adjusted Percent Change (F)2016(F)2017(F) Manufacturing - SIC Basis Food Textile Mills Textile Product Mills Apparel Wood Products Furniture & Related Products Paper & Products Printing Support Activities Petroleum & Coal Products Chemicals Rubber & Plastics Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computers & Electronic Products Elec. Eq., Appliances, & Components Aerospace Products & Parts Motor Vehicles & Parts Miscellaneous All Less Comp., Commun., & Chips MAPI Manufacturing Production Forecast F=Forecast Source(s): MAPI Foundation, August 2015 Manufacturing Growth Slows Due to Strong Dollar and Less Drilling