Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe DMCSEE

Contents Drought in SE Europe DMCSEE background DMCSEE partners and project Sustainability of the project results – permanent DMCSEE

How will farming in the SE EU be affected by climate change? Farming will be most affected by droughts in the southern and south- eastern regions. Source: Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector AGRI-2006-G4-05, AEA Energy & Environment and,Universidad de Politécnica de Madrid, 2007

Drought in SE Europe is not solely the matter of climate change

Problem identification – recent updates Bulgaria: June 10, 2009 – wheat output to fall by 20% due to dry conditions Drought in Slavonia, Croatia: May 24, agriculture hit by drought; 90 days lack of rain

Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe Background DMCSEE initiative – “top-down” approach October 2004: A “Balkan Drought Workshop” in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD Outcome: establishment of a Working Group to formulate a proposal that identified the needs and further actions for laying the foundation of the Balkan Sub-regional Drought Management Centre.

DMCSEE Background April 2006 : “2 nd technical workshop” in Sofia (BG) Participants: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO Outcomes: 1)Framework for the preparation of a project proposal on the establishment of a Drought Management Centre for South- Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) within the context of the UNCCD, 2)Further steps towards the establishment of DMCSEE. 3)Decision on DMCSEE host (September 2006)

2012 – permanent center?

DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project 15 partners from 9 countries Total project budget 2.2 M€ Not all countries participate! (not all countries are eligible)

Water use in agriculture southern European countries have the highest water use for irrigation. It represents around 78 % of the total abstraction in southern Accession Countries and 80 % of their consumptive uses, and 51 % of the total abstraction in southwestern European countries which represents around 65 % of their consumptive uses. Europe DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Practical experience with crop-water balance model WinIsareg Irrigation scheduling Why using WinIsareg (Pereira et al, 2003)? soils divided into several layers; large selection of irrigation methods; results: variety of data - problems with data CROP DATA dates of phenological stages SOIL DATA data for different soil layers CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA humidity, wind, sunshine… Etp: in Slovenia we will use Penman-Monteith metod

Impact of climate variability & drought on yield and irrigation requirements Different irrigation techniques

Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Regional implementation of the Standardized Precipitation Index A statistical method for processing precipitation data; fits the data to local distribution SPI is independent of both the location and the range of values - > different seasons and climate areas are represented on an equal basis. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

From regional to local implementation Step 1 Calculation of SPI Stpe 2 Mapping of SPI Step 3 Dissemination DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping risk = hazard x vulnerability HAZARD VULNERABILITY RISK ( Source: MEDROPLAN ) Both, natural hazard due to climate variability, and more subjective vulnerability, cause risk of drought impacts DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Modelling vulnerability (approach 1) Factors that increase vulnerability in agriculture: - soil water holding capacity - terrain slope and aspect - land use / land cover - access to irrigation infrastructure DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Concept of risk Alternative formulation (approach 2): risk = loss x probability of occurence Loss due to drought impact in € - > risk is equal to “daily financial risk” (insurance?) Loss of crop yield - > risk assessment with help of crop yield model? DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project

Impact data: Data of crop yield losses Example – summer drought 2006 in Slovenia Archive of administration for civil protection and disaster relief Concept of risk

Impact data Data of crop yield losses – historical data (bulletins, agricultural reports...) - > preparation of SE regional drought impacts data base Concept of risk

Mission of DMCSEE? Understanding of the problem Regional drought & regional vulnerability to drought impacts Proper Planning Informed decision making (promote and strengthen the capacity for drought preparedness) set-up permanent Drought Management Centre for SE Europe exchange of knowledge, experience and best practice on drought issues (SEE network) raise awareness of decision makers, relevant stakeholders and end users about importance of effective drought preparedness, monitoring and management. Future role of DMCSEE ? Drought Risk Reduction Effective Actions

Long-Term Strategy for adaptation (of agriculture) to drought Preparedness to improve the effectiveness of response and recovery, such as establishing drought early-warning systems. Mitigation measures to reduce the impact of drought prior to their occurrence. Adaptation strategies to prepare for and cope with the potential impacts of drought in climate variability and climate change.

Recently, we have started to publish Drought Bulletin for SE Europe. Bulletin contains following sections: Hot spot - short summary, possibly including a figure. It aims at very short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue. Additional and auxiliary information (such as methology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation) Report on impacts; content of this section is based on information available in electronic media on the internet. To improve the information, you are most welcome to participate by informing us on drought impacts in the current season in your region. Send your contribution and comments through our contact. Also any other comments on the bulletin content would be highly appreciated.contact Please find published issues of bulletin on the web. Visit DMCSEE web page for update