Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Learning rates Nils Markusson

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage The problem – predicting the future of CCS Demand from policy-makers (and companies?!): what technologies, when, what costs? But prediction is difficult or even impossible So, best possible guesses UK Energy Research Centre - modelling of the energy sector - many supply technologies - economists, engineers, innovation policy researchers

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage A possible approach – learning rates Learning-by-doing (Grubb, 2006)

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Learning rates - equation cost 2xcap / cost cap = 1 - LR - per accumulated capacity, not time - all unknowns...

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage LR and CCS Estimating future costs - we need initial cost, LR and capacities 1. Initial costs: estimates avilable 2. LR: historical analogues (11-12%, capture, environmental technology) 3. Capacities: deployment scenarios

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Example calculation Target: from 80 to /t in 2020 Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity Literature Industry target LR 24-34%

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Some of the known problems 1. Not always any learning like this 2. Sensitive to initial cost and time 3. Learning not always smooth

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage What to do next 1. Develop different scenarios - deployment, breakthroughs 2. Complement with qualitative accounts 3. Highlight policy implications

Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage With breakthroughs Cost per tonne, /t Doublings of installed capacity