1. Sustainable Energy for the Built Environment in the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy University of Bath, February 2010 Matthew Leach m.leach@surrey.ac.uk www.surrey.ac.uk/ces

2. Centre for Environmental Strategy Director: Professor Matthew Leach m.leach@surrey.ac.uk www.surrey.ac.uk/ces

3. Long term strategy of CES Take a multi-disciplinary approach to the analysis of sustainable systems, integrating strong, engineering- based approaches with insights from the social sciences to develop action-oriented, policy-relevant responses to long-term environmental and social issues Run a suite of three MScs (Env Strategy, Corporate Env Management, Sustainable Dev.), full time & part time modular programme Long standing and newly enlarged Industrial Doctoral Centre (EngD): in Sustainability for Engineering and Energy Systems

4. Areas of Research Approaches/themes:- sustainable systems: tools for analysis –eg LCA, carbon footprinting, agent-based models, multi-criteria methods social research on sustainability –values, attitudes, behaviours. Linked to departments of Psychology, Sociology, Economics policy/governance and corporate strategy for sustainability –risk, roles of innovation, CSR, communication, regulation Applied (largely) to:- 1.systems analysis for lower carbon processes & products 2.low carbon energy systems 3.water resources and policy 4.lifestyles and environment (nb ESRC RESOLVE consortium)

5. Outline of presentation Low carbon challenge for the UK (& Internationally) Built Environment – in low carbon context Recent scenario analyses Lifestyles and behaviours (briefly) Hence research needs…

6. Source: CCC(2008) First report

9. The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan UK introduced worlds first legally binding carbon targets These carbon budgets set the pathway for the LCTP Early action needed, hence series of budgets to 2022 by when -34% below 1990 In line with -80% for 2050 Emissions fallen 1%/year since 1990 need to fall 1.4%/year to 2020 Action needed in all sectors power and heavy industry see largest reductions (but just scenarios…)

10. Challenge for the built environment Source: adapted from Michael Kelly presentation to IfS Feb 2009 Almost 90% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050…

11. Built environment: problem solved? Source: Tadj Oreszczyn

12. Inter-relationships between factors influencing energy use in residential buildings (source: Summerfield (2008) Energy usage and occupant behaviour: understanding socio-technical interactions. Cited by T.Oreszczyn The challenges of implementation and uncertainty in outcome Plus, influence of policy

13. Smart metering: fostering a link between consumers and system/market/technologies Source: Landis & Gyr

14. Low Carbon Scenario analyses since 2000 Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution Energy Review Energy White papers UK Energy Research Centre Energy 2050 Ofgem LENS Committee on Climate Change First Report Low Carbon Transition Plan modelling for DECC and DEFRA …. Common feature is the use of MARKAL as a modelling tool, or similar techno-economic optimisation framework

15. Gas Coal Losses Homes Transport Industry Business Heat (all sectors) Renewables Nuclear Oil

16. UKs CO2 emissions for 80% emissions reduction: one CCC scenario (Source: CCC (2008) First report)

17. Gas Coal Losses Homes Transport Industry Business Heat (all sectors) Renewables Nuclear Oil Biomass Biofuels

18. Challenges for a highly-electric future: (focus on the built environment)

19. 2050: Types of energy in use; electrification

20. The changing electricity system (View from EDF Energys Cathy McClay)

21. Source: Gearóid Lane, Centrica

24. Source: David Elliott, Open University

26. Mayor of London: the revised London Plan - London as a Low Carbon Capital Energy and carbon reduction strategies seek to reduce the capitals emissions by 60 per cent by 2025. Target to supply a quarter of Londons energy from decentralised sources by the same year. The Mayor will expect all major developments to demonstrate that the proposed heating and cooling systems have been selected in accordance with the following order of preference: connection to existing CCHP/CHP distribution networks; site-wide CCHP/CHP powered by renewable energy; gas-fired CCHP/CHP or hydrogen fuel cells, both accompanied by renewables; communal heating & cooling by renewable energy; gas fired communal heating and cooling.

28. Added: Large scale natural gas fired CHP with Carbon Capture and Storage and heat networks, plus some small CHP using biomass Gas Coal Losses Homes Transport Industry Business Heat (all sectors) Renewables Nuclear Oil Biomass Biofuels CHP

29. Benefits of an efficient, diverse scenario The highly-electric future is low carbon but not high efficiency, and narrow range of options Higher efficiency and greater diversity is possible –CHP with CCS and district heating appears feasible –Our scenario: primary energy demand down 5%; waste heat down 30%; approx 12GW coal eliminated –Reduced peak electricity load –Reduction in effects of intermittency through heat storage and system diversity –Reduced end-user disruption associated with heat pump installation But, challenges of installing heat networks, and acceptability of piped heat??

30. LINKING LIFESTYLES, SOCIETAL VALUES AND ENVIRONMENT A research group funded at Surrey contact details: Gemma Cook Administrative Coordinator g.cook@surrey.ac.uk www.surrey.ac.uk/resolve

31. Eg Lifestyle Scenarios Proof that the world is getting warmer… …..or more fashion conscious? explore emerging trends in direct and indirect energy consumption, as well as in energy-related lifestyles, attitudes and behaviours; longitudinal empirical case studies in lifestyle change: monitoring energy/carbon, psychological and social variables over a 4-year period; evaluate and test a range of sustainable lifestyle scenarios;

32. Inter-relationships between factors influencing energy use in residential buildings (source: Summerfield (2008) Energy usage and occupant behaviour: understanding socio-technical interactions. Cited by T.Oreszczyn The challenges of implementation and uncertainty in outcome Occupant Behaviour

33. Integrated perspectives: technologies have to follow a long, expensive and risky chain of innovation to get from idea to market Diffusion Government Market, People Business and finance community Investments Market accumul ation Commercial -isation Demon- stration Applied R&D Basic R&D Product/ Technology Push Market and demand Pull Source: Foxon (2003) adapted by M. Grubb Policy Interventions Research

34. Much attention in past 5 years to these…eg low carbon scenarios Clear recognition that current arrangements cannot deliver on long term investments or short term security…policy and research focus (My text box additions to EDFs triangle)

35. A low carbon future: key findings A low carbon & sustainable energy future is technologically and economically possible – many different routes or options –Important to dig below the high level optimisation in system-level scenarios: operational impacts? Difficulties in implementation? Diversity may have benefits Big changes in technologies, institutions & our lifestyles likely… –Sensible to pursue: Incremental and transforming technologies, plus attention to consumers/citizens, their attitudes and behaviours For built environment: –How to integrate demand and supply sides? Eg opportunity through smart meters for load reduction as wind drops… –How to stimulate the building sector and individuals to make more sustainable choices, amidst great complexity and uncertainty? Eg role for an energy services market to be developed?

36. Thank You! Matthew Leach m.leach@surrey.ac.uk www.surrey.ac.uk/ces