CASE STUDY - THE CHINESE CENTURY 1949-2049 SOFT & HARD POWER CASE STUDY - THE CHINESE CENTURY 1949-2049

Questions What is Soft Power? What is Hard Power? How hard is soft power? (How compelling?) How soft is hard power? (How vulnerable?) What dictates which is used when? Or in what combination?

Introduction of the term ‘soft power’ Nye, Jr., Joseph S. Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. PublicAffairs, 2004. Joseph S. Nye Jr. from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. “power today lies not only in the might of one's sword but in the appeal of one's ideas” - U.S. Power and Strategy After Iraq Joseph S. Nye, Jr. From Foreign Affairs, July/August 2003 http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20030701faessay15405/joseph-s-nye-jr/u-s-power-and-strategy-after-iraq.html

The Chinese Century The Chinese Century from 1949 began with the slogan 'political power grows out of the barrel of a gun'. What did this mean? Was it true? Is it still true?

Transformative power If the above is the slogan of struggle, what might be a slogan for the traditional Chinese virtue of harmony? Slogan from the traditional Chinese tributary system: Lai Hua (Come and be transformed) What might the slogan be in 2049?

Strategic Culture What is Strategic Culture? Compare the strategic cultures of the USA, the Middle East, East Asia, the EU. It will help to describe their behaviour in the pursuit of security.

‘All warfare is deception’ Features of Chinese strategic culture: yin-yang, wen-wu, 'people's war' (3 phases); 'All warfare is deception' - Sun Tzu. How deceptive is China's military power? How soft is China's hard power? - as in (a) vulnerable and (b) a disguise for soft power? How hard is China's soft power? - as in (a) compelling and (b) a disguise and means for the acquisition of hard power.

The Chinese Superpower? Is it important for China to become a superpower? What are the pros and cons? What kind of superpower might it be if this was to eventuate? Think about its strategic culture for clues. What did the Chinese President mean when he said to the American Secretary of State - "The fat man didn't get that way with just one bite"?

‘China’s Defense Policy in the Context of Globalization’ 15/6/06 Rear Admiral YANG Yi Director, Institute of Strategic Studies National Defense University, PLA Speaker at ‘China Confronts New Security Issues’ workshop, China Foreign Affairs University Beijing, 12-16 June 2006

Yang’s observations on Soft Power Spoke of: ‘soft power and hard power in promotion of harmonious world’ ‘following defensive strategy, not aggressive – China will not follow the superpower military policy’ ‘military power should be used not aggressively but [in the arena] of international cooperation’ – e.g. UN peacekeeping, disaster relief, anti-terrorism. China’s military power is not ‘focused on a third party’. Encouraged more military exchanges in officer training colleges, joint military exercises for building trust and transparency.

‘Strategic Culture & International Security’ By Prof. QIN Yaqing Exec. Vice President China Foreign Affairs University Vice President, China National Assoc. for Int’l Studies

Cooperative Internationalism Prof Qin spoke of 3 possible foreign policy choices: 1. Aggressive nationalism (as China develops so does nationalism) 2. Utilitarian realism (work only for national interests) 3. Cooperative internationalism – China’s choice (highly integrated in int’l system – both economic & security fields)

Useful Readings The Rise of China's Soft Power Joseph S. Nye, Jr. The Wall Street Journal, Asia edition, 29 December 2005. Posted on the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs website at Harvard University. Also available on: Chinese Military Power: http://www.comw.org/cmp/ Purnendra Jain and Gerry Groot, “Beijing's 'soft power' offensive”, Asia Times Online, 17 May 2006, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HE17Ad01.html Bates Gill & Yanzhong Huang, ‘Sources and Limits of Chinese “Soft Power”’, Survival, Vol. 48, No. 2, Summer 2006, pp. 17-35. The State Council Information Office, China's National Defense in 2004 (White Paper), PRC, 27 Dec. 2004, Beijing,www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/natdef2004.html

Class Exercise: China’s soft power in 2049 Form small discussion groups and create a best case and worst case scenario for China’s soft power in 2049. At the end of the session we will compare findings.