1. ENERGY POLICIES AND STRATEGIES RUSSIA’S THREAT TO EUROPE’S ENERGY SECURITY Janusz Bugajski, Bucharest, 3-5 April 2006 Romanian Energy Program, Phase III (REP3)

2. GEO-STRATEGIC CONTEXT Energy Demand Rising Limits on Diversification Energy Dependence and Vulnerability

3. EUROPE’S ENERGY DEPENDENCE CEE Dependence on Russian Energy Growing EU Dependence

4. RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES Primary Influence over CEE Foreign and Security Policy Gaining Economic Predominance Converting Energy into Political Influence Limiting Western Enlargement Rebuilding Global Status Re-Establishing Multi-Polarity

5. RUSSIA’S GEO-ENERGY POLITICS Russia as Energy Superpower Developing Monopolies Supplier Diversification Extra-Territorial Interests Purchasing Infrastructure

6. EUROPE’S ENERGY SECURITY Common EU Energy Policy Energy Security Pact Direct Energy Sources Assisting Transit States Controlling Strategic Assets Using Economic Leverage