Polar Communications and Weather Mission Canadian Context and Benefits

Economic Recovery Sustainable job creation Development of natural resources, including in the North Northern Strategy Enhancing presence, sovereignty and services Protection of the environment Promoting social and economic development World class Arctic research Improving and Devolving Northern Governance Environment Weather and environmental forecasts Monitoring and protection the environment Clean air, clean water Support for North in Budget 2010, e.g., Canadian responsibility for Arctic MET/NAV Areas RADARSAT Constellation Mission (2015/16 launch) Continued development High Arctic Research Station Government Of Canada Context and Priorities IMO MET/NAV AREAS

Motivation for Arctic Observations A rapidly changing, less-predictable environment climate change amplified and accelerated in polar regions rapidly diminishing ice cover changing snow, permafrost and vegetation cover Increasing economic activity resource exploration and development increased marine and air traffic need for operational information infrastructure to support operations, safety, and regulation High meteorological and climate significance impacts on global weather and climate prediction significant region for air pollution, volcanic ash transport A gap in global observation systems sparse in-situ networks – challenging and costly geostationary observing systems not suitable >50°-55° polar observing systems not continuous spatially and temporally (esp. 55N-70N) Active region of space weather phenomena

Specific Objectives for Weather Mission Improved weather observing and prediction in the North –meteorological imaging and services for the entire circumpolar region –high-quality, geostationary-like imagery with goal of 15 min refresh –variety of applications and products for forecasters and NWP –improved observation of processes for NWP model improvement –potential for reduced future requirement for surface and upper air observing networks Improved detection and prediction of air quality variables –more timely detection and tracking of volcanic ash –fire hot spot detection, smoke and pollutant mapping and transport Improved monitoring of climate variables –apply advantages of high temporal imaging for improved climate monitoring –increased opportunities for cloud-free viewing of the surface –surface, cloud, radiative properties, processes, and climatologies Operational Status –20+ year program life –an integrated component of the WMO Space-Based GOS ▪incl. data policy, distribution, intercalibration, etc –target of operations by 2017

Example Weather Applications and Products High-quality, high-frequency imagery for full region circumpolar >50°N Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from sequences of images Nowcasting products –severe weather, visibility (fog), icing in support of air and marine traffic, stability index, turbulence, etc., … Direct assimilation into NWP –low- to mid-tropospheric sensitive IR channels Smoke, dust, aerosols –support to air quality models and environmental prediction Volcanic ash detection and tracking Surface temperature, boundary layer inversions Climate Products –e.g., vegetation indices, radiative fluxes, leaf area index, etc

Benefits Improved citizen safety, efficiency of economic operations in the North –weather services are critical enabler for communities, commerce, and security –e.g., personal health and safety, transportation, economic development, military –addresses a known weakness in current observing and prediction capability Improved national and global weather prediction accuracy –significant impacts of polar weather at mid-latitudes –improved understanding of polar processes and improvements in numeric models Improved Arctic climate science and policy making –Improved capabilities for climate monitoring and science –a foundation for informed policy development Improved protection of sensitive space and ground infrastructure –through improved space-weather monitoring and prediction services …for Canada –a strong contributor to Canada’s Northern Strategy –significant, relevant Canadian contribution to Global Observing System –investment and sustainability of Canadian aerospace capability