FALLING BIRTHS AND AGEING IN THE EUROPEAN UNION Group #3 Bymayri De León Beato Yee Yee Win

WHAT IS GOING ON? There is a global decline in the number of children born to each woman: each woman has half as many children as her counterpart did in The fertility rate of half the world is now 2.1 or less, the magic number that is consistent with a stable population and is usually called “the replacement rate of fertility”. Sometime between 2020 and 2050 the world's fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate.

FERTILITY RATES IN THE WORLD Source: Index Mundi 2014 The map displayed here shows how Total fertility rate varies by country. The shade of the country corresponds to the magnitude of the indicator. The darker the shade, the higher the value.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU)? Total fertility rates are projected to rise for the EU as a whole, though remaining below the natural replacement rate.

FERTILITY RATES IN EU Fully 87% of women in 27 European Union (EU) member states reported that the ideal family size for them personally is two or more children.

DEMOGRAPHICS IN EU

LIFE EXPECTANCY IN EU, BY SEX

PROJECTED CHANGE OF MAIN POPULATION GROUPS (IN % CHANGE OVER THE PERIOD )

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? The declines are only partially due to contraception, which was a mechanism that facilitated the underlying causes. The drivers included changing values; the emancipation of women and their increasing participation in the labour force; the high costs for child care and education; couples with fewer children enjoying opportunities for travel and leisure and an improved standard of living. The instability of many partnerships was also a factor. Upstream of these factors were economic pressures, industrialization and urbanization. Changing labour markets are demanding increasingly educated and skilled workers, so the cost to parents of raising and educating numerous children becomes prohibitive. It also requires longer time in education, delaying childbirth among more educated people. As small-scale, family-run businesses decline, children are less economically useful to their parents.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?

It will be less and less working age people and more older people… …and the relationship of workers to pensioners will be bigger. Meaning that there will be fewer working people supporting more retired workers.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? Policiymakers need to combine work and family life, because is not only an important issue for young and middle-aged persons, it also concerns older persons expected to stay longer in paid work. Education and training are no longer associated with young age only; they are becoming lifelong activities. This means that social and economic policies should extend beyond the usual boundaries. Consequently, problem-oriented policies should be reformulated into a policy framework where their links with subsequent stages of the life course are addressed. Different stakeholders need to pay more attention to designing policies. In particular, employers, trade unions and local governments should be more involved in their implementation. Demographic renewal might be considered at the macro level not only as a measure for reducing the imbalances between the young, adults and the elderly, but also for stimulating human capital growth by increasing its quantity.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE? Another important policy issue refers to the accumulation of knowledge and skills over the life course. Increasing the educational attainment of young people not only results in a higher level of their human capital, it also contributes to increasing the human capital gap between the young and other generations. Migration flows increasingly contribute to the population and the labour market. Therefore, it is important to create conditions which allow migrants to further strengthen the human capital potential in Europe. In summary, policies aimed at developing the human and social capital in Europe should combine quantitative and qualitative dimensions which should complement and support each other.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH! Falling births and ageing in the European Union Group #3