1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 01, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 01, 2013 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern China, rainfall is below normal, especially near the southeastern coastal regions. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central and interior Australia.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is showing significant deficits over Japan, Malaysia, south eastern China and north western Australia. However, recent abundant rains that fell this past week have considerably eased the severe rainfall short term (30 days) deficits that existed over southeastern China and northern Australia, while the long term (90 days) deficits still remain in these regions.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week rainfall heavy rainfall amounts fell over southeastern China and far northern Australia where it was much needed. Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern China, rainfall is below normal, especially near the southeastern coastal regions. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central and interior Australia. The 30-day precipitation is showing significant deficits over Japan, Malaysia, south eastern China and north western Australia. However, recent abundant rains that fell this past week have considerably eased the severe rainfall short term (30 days) deficits that existed over southeastern China and northern Australia, while the long term (90 days) deficits still remain in these regions. This past week rainfall heavy rainfall amounts fell over southeastern China and far northern Australia where it was much needed. In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model continues to predict above normal rainfall over southeastern China and far northern Australia, where the deficits exist.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology