UNITED NATIONS Population Activities Unit ECONOMIC COMISSION FOR EUROPE Generations and Gender Programme Innovative Way of Advancing Knowledge for Policy-Making Andres Vikat IISP 4 th Annual Scientific Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005

2 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Demographic Context in Europe Below replacement fertility and low mortality  population ageing and decline Changes in reproduction and cohabitation patterns  changes in family structure Consequence: Challenges to social and economic policies, including family policies

3 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Need for policy-relevant knowledge Governments and scientists know of changes in families and family relationships Governments and scientists aware of the lack of solid knowledge of causes of the changes Advances in knowledge essential for informed formulation of coordinated and systematic policies

4 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 UNECE Tradition: Surveys Comparative Fertility Surveys (CFS); ; 12 countries (4 in CEE) World Fertility Survey (WFS); ; 18 countries (6 in CEE) Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS); ; 23 UNECE countries & New Zealand (8 in CEE)

5 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 UNECE Tradition: Policy Discussion Geneva 1993: European Population Conference Budapest 1998: Regional Population Meeting Geneva 2004: European Population Forum

6 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Fertility and Family Surveys - FFS Data 10 or more years old, do not enable the analysis of the effect of societal transition There is a need for a new round of comparative surveys  Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) Many important questions cannot be addressed using retrospective data only

7 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Why GGP? To understand –the relationship between child-bearing and family life on the one hand, and social, economic, political and ideational change on the other –inter-generational relationships –gender relationships … in order to enable informed formulation of policies

8 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 GGP – a Unique Programme Currently the only international programme focusing on the analysis of population dynamics and its causes

9 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Key Features of the GGP Prospective view: Panel design - crucial novelty compared to FFS Multidisciplinarity: demography, sociology, economics, psychology, political science Comparability: aiming at more rigorous adherence to common tools and content Context-sensitivity: contextual database Generations: Addressing the second half of the life course, facets of ageing Gender: access to education and employment, autonomy, division of roles; sample of both sexes, couple perspective, response items

10 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Panel Nationally representative sample of year-old men and women One respondent interviewed in a household Survey Design - Main Features

11 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Panel Design Makes It Possible … to analyze relationships between demographic behaviour and life domains that can hardly or not at all be measured retrospectively, like subjective dimensions, income to analyze how demographic behaviour shapes value orientations and attitudes, influences well-being, intergenerational and gender relationships to analyze intentions of demographic behaviour, and the circumstances supporting or preventing their realization

12 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Focus of the GGS Target processes –Childbearing –Partnership dynamics –Home leaving –Retiring

13 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Main criterion for including explanatory topics Theoretically grounded relevance to explaining one or more of the target processes

14 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Two Main Explanatory Domains Economic aspects, including subjective assessment of them –Activity –Income –Wealth  New Home Economics, relative income; absolute and relative deprivation Values and attitudes  Second Demographic Transition

15 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Other Explanatory Domains Parent-child relationships Gender relationships Household composition Housing Stepfamilies Contraception and infertility treatment Education Health Subjective well-being Social networks and private transfers Welfare state and public transfers

16 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Organisation of the Questionnaire Core: –13 sections 4 optional sub-modules –Nationality & ethnicity –Previous partners –Intentions of breaking up –Housing

17 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Prospective View: Intentions Full set of questions include: –Intention –Expected consequences –Important circumstances –Perceived attitudes of relevant others Implemented for: –starting to live with a partner; if in a non- residential partnership, starting to live with the current non-resident partner –starting to live separately from parents –having a/another child –retiring –breaking up (optional)

18 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Other Intentions moving finishing education (if studying) resuming education (if not studying) marrying starting to live together with parents resuming work after maternity leave, parental leave, or childcare leave; taking a job or starting a business (if not working) changing company or starting a business (employees) starting a new business or taking a job (self- employed) give up paid work (those who are working)

Wave 1 Analysis Retrospective histories childbearing partnerships CHILDHOOD CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS of INTENTIONS LIFE COURSE ANALYSIS

Wave 1 Analysis Retrospective histories childbearing partnerships economic activity CHILDHOOD CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS of INTENTIONS CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS ANALYSIS of INTENTIONS CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS childbearing partnerships economic activity changes from Wave 1 to 2 childbearing partnerships changes from Wave 2 to 3 economic activity LIFE COURSE ANALYSIS Wave 2 Wave 3 …

21 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Examples of Analyses after Wave 1 Intentions as the dependent variable Retrospective childbearing histories as the dependent variable: Analyses of parity progression, and combined partnership and childbearing histories Association of experienced partnership and childbearing history with current value orientations and attitudes and current labor- market status and other current situations Various kinds of cross-sectional analyses The novelty value of GGS unfolds only after implementing the following panel waves

22 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 GGP Outputs Archives of national harmonised –micro-data files of GGS –macro-data files of contextual data National and cross national reports and studies for policy-makers and scientific community National and international meetings Input for policy discussion

23 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Organisation Programme level: –Consortium Board (steering group) –Expert Working Groups Questionnaire Development - Wave 1 Questionnaire Development - Wave 2 Administrative Records Analysis: defining standardised outputs Sampling, fieldwork guidelines, panel maintenance –Informal Working Group: representatives from all interested institutions and countries National level: –National committees / focal points –focal point in Russia: Independent Institute for Social Policy

24 Andres Vikat - IISP Conference, Moscow, 8-9 Dec 2005 Institutional Setting Coordination: –UNECE Population Activities Unit Consortium: –Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) –Institut national d’études démographiques (INED) –Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) –Hungarian Central Statistical Office –Statistics Canada –Department of Social Policy, University of York –Department of Demography, University of Rome “La Sapienza”

Wave 1 Committed, fundraising Pilot, preparation for Wave 1 IWG member May 2004

Wave 1 Committed, fundraising Pilot, preparation for Wave 1 IWG member October 2005

Thank you for your attention.