Southwest Business Forum January 11, 2008 Fort Lewis College’s 16 th Annual Focus on Our Future: Business and Economics Sponsored by Wells Fargo San Juan Market

The La Plata County Economy

Region 9 Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau La PlataMontezumaArchuletaDolores San Juan ,56325,43912,7771, ,93625,21712,3861, ,23024,76711,8821,809568

Region 9 Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Region 9 Annual Wages Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

Region 9 Annual Wage Growth Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

Region 9 Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available.

Major Industries in Region 9 Industry Change Trade, Transportation and Utilities 26.1%23.2%-2.9% Leisure and Hospitality 23.2%20.4%-2.8% Construction 10.3%14.7%+4.4% Education and Health Services 14.2%13.5%-0.7% Professional and Business Services 8.4%10.3%+1.9% Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Tourism Tourism Includes: 1. Airport Passengers 2. Train Ridership 3. Mesa Verde Visitors 4. Lodger’s Tax Collected 5. Skier Boarder Visits

Airport Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: Durango - La Plata County Airport e = estimate

Train Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad e = estimate

Mesa Verde Visitors Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office e = estimate

Lodger’s Tax Revenue (in 1995 $s) Percent Change By Year ( e ) Sources: City of Durango and La Plata County e = estimate

Skier/Boarder Visits YearUnited States (millions) Purgatory (DMR) 2000/ , / , / , / , / , / , / ,000 e Sources: National Ski Association and Annual Reports e = estimate with regression

Retail Sales (Adjusted for Inflation) An indicator of tourism activity as well as population growth.

Retail Sales (in 1995 $s) Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: Colorado Department of Revenue e = estimate

Employment Indicates job growth in the economy.

Employment Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment e = estimate

2008 Tourism, Retail, & Employment Outlook Tourism: Dependent upon discretionary spending Retail: Cushioned by local spending Employment: Stable unemployment; lower wages

Agriculture Includes Calf Prices and Alfalfa Hay Prices – adjusted for inflation. A better measure would be sales, but these numbers are not available.

Alfalfa Hay Prices Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate

Calf Prices, Adjusted Dollar Value per Cut Weight Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate

2008 Agriculture Outlook Increased prices in field-based commodity prices  Drought across nation  Corn-based ethanol Decreased prices in calf prices  Not passing input costs to consumer  Ranchers/farmers not buying calves with increased feed costs

Industrial Kilowatt-Hours Used as an indicator of industrial activity in the county. Most industrial usage of electricity in the county is to compress natural gas for transmission through gas pipelines

Industrial Kilowatt Hours Percent Change By Year ( e ) Source: La Plata Electric Association Inc. e = estimate

Observations for Oil & Gas Given the current regulations in the oil & gas industry, the region is producing natural gas near full capacity Certain market pundits are calling this the year of natural gas

Fort Lewis College Enrollment The college stabilizes the economy because of higher enrollment in the fall and winter months. This offsets some of the decline in tourism during this time period.

Fort Lewis College Enrollment (Fall) Percent Change By Year ( ) Source: Fort Lewis College

2008 Fort Lewis College Outlook Increased admission standards at FLC  Comparable with UC-Boulder and CSU Slight dip in enrollment last several years Intermediate-term goal is 5,000 students

Residential Real Estate Median Price for La Plata County is used in the index.

Median Home Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

Percentage Change in Price of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

Average Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in La Plata County

Median Home Price of Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County

Total Number of Transactions of Condos/Town Homes in La Plata County

Median Home Price Change of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango

Days on Market of Single-Family Homes in In-Town Durango

Building Permits This indicator uses the adjusted dollar valuation of the properties for which permits were issued—thereby measuring the dollar value (as assessed) of new construction in La Plata County.

Building Permits (Construction) Percent Change By Year ( e ) Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango Planning and Community Development Department e = estimate

2008 Real Estate Outlook Rest of the nation bracing for worst real estate correction since the Depression National builders report a bottom is not in place Single-family homes = healthy correction Condos/Town Homes = less healthy correction Building permits = significant decline

Bank Deposits An important indicator of the economic health of the community. Also an indicator of the ability of local banks to make loans to consumers and business borrowers.

Bank Deposits (Unadjusted) Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation June 30thDepositsYear to Year % Change 2002$615,000, $702,000, $778,000, $874,000, $1,020,000, $1,034,000,

Inflation Durango Price Index (DPI) Monitors the change in the price of goods and services in our region Durango Price Index  Adjust Denver CPI for Durango housing and income levels  Assumes similar other expenditure patterns as Denver consumers

Durango Price Index versus Denver CPI

Annual Inflation Rate: Durango vs. Denver

Weight of Housing Costs: Durango vs. Denver

2008 Inflation Outlook Durango housing rents will probably increase Increased expenses in commodity prices Decreased consumer spending

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