Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I and Non-Annex I to the Historical.

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Presentation transcript:

Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I and Non-Annex I to the Historical Global Temperature Change and Sea Level Rise Natalia Andronova and Michael Schlesinger Climate Research Group Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Phase 1 - Initial check HadCM3 climate model 4xCO2 A2 future emissions scenario Timeframe: 1760 to 2100

Phase 2 - Sensitivity study four country groups OECD in 1990 (OECD) Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (REF) Asia (ASIA) Africa and Latin America (ALM) Timeframe Emissions start dates: 1890 Emission end dates: 2000 The time for which the attribution calculations will be performed: 1980, 1990, 2000

Model parameters: Emissions : Historical: EDGAR database (1.3) ( Future: A2 emission scenario from the IPCC SRES Emissions to Concentrations: Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO 2 -Stabilization Scenarios. Integrated Assessment, 2(3), Concentrations to radiative forcing: as in the IPCC TAR.

temperature change or sea level rise over gases over regions

Case 1: the cumulative emissions for all species Case 2: the cumulative emissions for GHG instantaneous for sulfates Case 3: the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2O instantaneous for CH4&sulfates Global mean temperature change

ALM

Case 1: the cumulative emissions for all species Case 2: the cumulative emissions for GHG instantaneous for sulfates Case 3: the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2O instantaneous for CH4&sulfates SEA LEVEL RISE

Conclusions: A cooling effect of the sulfate aerosol is highly important

Recommendations other aerosols, such as those due to biomass burning and fossil fuels other greenhouse gases, such as the chlorofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone should be included in the analysis: to use other coupled GCMs, with different climate sensitivities and different oceanic heat uptakes to calibrate the simple climate model: different databases for the historical emissions.