Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 EC4MACS Task 3: Ecosystem Impact Assessment by the MNP-Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE)

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 The Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) … Consists of: –Max Posch, –Jaap Slootweg, –Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Collaborates with Alterra (Wim de Vries and Gert Jan Reinds) on bio-geochamical modelling, Collaborates with university of Leiden on GIS and ecology.

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …Develops methodologies and databases on European critical loads (acidification, eutrophication, heavy metals); deposition below which no adverse effects occur to ecosystems according to current knowledge…, 5 th percentile critical loads Acidification Eutrophication

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …and methodologies to assess future effects of changes in the exceedances of critical load (emission scenario dependent)…,

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …in collaboration with 27 National Focal Centres (NFCs), covering about 1,5 million data points on soil-vegetation characteristics within the EMEP modelling domain of GAINS

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …in support of effect-based European air pollution policies; CLRTAP- Oslo protocol (2001), CLRTAP-Gothenburg protocol (1999), EC-NEC directive (2001), EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Intergovernmental bodies, expert groups and scientific centres UN/ECE-LRTAP Convention International Co-operative Programme on Modelling and Mapping

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 EB WGE RIVM CCE Decision on effects basis of protocols. Formulate workplan, endorse CCE results. Methods & data development, reach consensus in ICP M&M, Scientific community & NFCs. Consensus on methods ? Apply methods; provide data. UN/ECE workshops, CCE workshops, Conferences. Data, and maps verified and ok ? TFIAM no yes no yes Results (critical loads) in IMPACT module of RAINS and other IEMs. …Including scientific consensus under the LRTAP-Convention… NFCs

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …implements results in RAINS/GAINS… Industrial production Agriculture Energy NH 3 emissions NO x emissions VOC emissions PM emissions CO 2 emissions N 2 O emissions HFC emissions PFC emissions SO 2 emissions SF 6 emissions Single and multiple pollutant emission controls S deposition N deposition O 3 formation CH 4 emissions Secondary aerosols Primary particles Critical loads for acidification Critical loads for nitrogen Critical levels for ozone Life expectancy Health guidelines O3 Radiative forcing/GWP Surface waters Forests soils Human health Climate Crops

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …focuses in the future on revision processes under CLRTAP and EC (EC4MACS)… EC-Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution CLRTAP Gothenburg Protocol

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for acidification in e.g. 2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR MFR 2020-CLE 2010-CLE Area at risk in EU25: 18%, 11%, 7%, 2% Area at risk in Europe: 12%, 8%, 6%, 1%

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 Exceedance %:EU25: Europe: CLE 2020 CLE 2010 MTFR 2020 …Assessing exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication in e.g. 2000, 2010-CLE, 2020-CLE, 2020-MFR,

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …currently extending methods to include biological endpoints also for natura2000 areas…

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …exploring overlays between NFC-sumissions and location of Natura2000 sites…(e.g. Netherlands)

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 Track 1: Voluntary Call for Data 2006/07 - Empirical N critical loads: Should be done by all countries to be able to compare with computed values! - Update of the critical load of nitrogen: Application of wide(r) range of critical limits, also addressing biodiversity. (CCE-Alterra Background Document) - Dynamic Modelling: - Enquire availability of data to run more complex (Δ vegetation) models. Track 2: 2007-future - Focus on implementation/use of (more complex) modelling of N-effects on biodiversity (see CCE Background Document) and Natura2000 areas - Under climate change… - Under uncertainty. …implemented the CLRTAP and EC4MACS workplan

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …will review results under climate change… Δ temperature → Δ critical load Δ precipitation → Δ critical load … Δ dispersion → Δ exceedance of critical loads … → Δ risk of impacts (magnitude and spatial distribution

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 …will review results under uncertainty. Critical loads cannot be validated (…impacts are in the future…) …Can be verified by means of “ensemble modelling” (use more than 1 single methodology; e.g. comparing magnitude and spatial distribution of empirical and computed critical loads …focus on robustness of exceedances… …by improving knowledge on false positifs (wrongly reject exceedance), and collaborate with the EC4MACS team in identifying no regret scenarios and co-benefits to diminish the “cost” of false negatifs (wrongly reject non- exceedance).

Coordination Centre for Effects Jean-Paul Hettelingh, EC4MACS kick off meeting, IIASA, 6-7 March 2007 Thank you