TE-3 Simulation Support Cell MPAT HA / DR Simulation Support Group Joint USCINCPAC J08 / Sweden – CELL ITS Project Simulation Model – CATS TYR

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Red Banner Relief Supplies CPG 3

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 13 Oct4 Dec C+10C+60 TimelineTimeline 3 Oct4 Oct CTF Estab C Day Distro Exist. Food 5 Oct Health Spt 6 Oct New Food Deliv. 8 Oct All Log Avail 12 Oct Bulk of Forces End of Msn 1 OctC-2 C-DayC+1C+2C+3C+5C+9 Conduct HA / DR Operations Transition to NGOs

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Timeline 100K Refugees (in ROK) “Thousands?” of Refugees (in ROP) Small Quantity of Rations (in ROP) 4 Aug Typhoon Dawn 10 days Rations (in ROK) 200K Refugees (in ROP)100K Refugees (in ROK) 27 Sep Typhoon Nari 3 days Rations (in ROP) 3 days Rations (in ROK) 25 Aug Earthquake “Thousands?” Refugees (in ROP) No Shelter/Rations (in ROP) 22 days Rations (in ROK) 100K Refugees (in ROK)~125K Refugees (in ROP) Sep 7 days Rations (in ROP) 200K Refugees (in ROP) 1 Oct 0 days Rations (in ROP)6 days Rations (in ROK) 3 Oct 200K Refugees (in ROP) 100K Refugees (in ROK) 0 days Rations (in ROP) C Day

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell What we did … Used proven exercise simulationUsed proven exercise simulation – CATS TYR – Developed in Sweden based on extensive Peace Support and HA/DR experience – Model is available to all countries – First use of exercise simulation (CATS TYR) in planning role Ran a “baseline” Course-Of-Action out to C+30Ran a “baseline” Course-Of-Action out to C+30 – Same COA start point (database) – Faced issues / problems common to all COA Groups ›Number of Refugees ›Camps (location) ›Starting location of participating countries ›Limited ports, air fields and long distances – Same scenario as all three COA Planning Groups

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CATS TYR TEAM

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell SAMPLE CATS TYR DISPLAY CATS TYR OPERATOR REPORT TEXT RCVD TAC REPORTS REPORT ARCHIVES TACTICAL DISPLAY UNITS UNDER COMMAND ORDERS GIVEN

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell v

Measles Cholera/Measles Cholera

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Cholera

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 716 Orders given

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 70 Helicopter transport missions 155 Air transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 87 Local & Regional Sea transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 87 Local & Regional Sea transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 985 Land transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell 985 Land transport missions

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CATS-TYR Baseline COA FACTS and ASSUMPTIONS Structure:Structure: – CTF Air – CTF Log – CTF Maritime – CTF Ground Not enough available air lift to move available forces to all sites in sufficient time – Supply vs Forces (we chose 50 – 50 mix)Not enough available air lift to move available forces to all sites in sufficient time – Supply vs Forces (we chose 50 – 50 mix) ROK forces mobilized on 1 OCT – SROKAROK forces mobilized on 1 OCT – SROKA Available forces on Parang Do mobilized on 1 OCTAvailable forces on Parang Do mobilized on 1 OCT – ROK: 50 trucks, 100 troops – ROP: 1100 trucks + police, medical, etc. – ICRC: 35 trucks Kimhae was APOD and Pusan was SPODKimhae was APOD and Pusan was SPOD Kimhae MOG could handle all available fixed-wing airliftKimhae MOG could handle all available fixed-wing airlift

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CATS-TYR Baseline COA FACTS and ASSUMPTIONS (Continued) Military troops deployed w/ 5 days basic loadMilitary troops deployed w/ 5 days basic load Warehouses in Pusan were 80% fullWarehouses in Pusan were 80% full Airfields on Parang Do would not support fixed wing assets until C+3Airfields on Parang Do would not support fixed wing assets until C+3 – Helicopter / ships bring first 3 days of supplies / troops Time / distance / size factors used – no magicTime / distance / size factors used – no magic Did not forward deploy SROKA HQDid not forward deploy SROKA HQ Did not consider Korea’s day-to-day life/economy as far as shipping and airport capacitiesDid not consider Korea’s day-to-day life/economy as far as shipping and airport capacities

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell RESULTSRESULTS

Greatest Challenges in TE-3 Scenario Transport of Rations, Water and ShelterTransport of Rations, Water and Shelter Deployment of Forces vs. LogisticsDeployment of Forces vs. Logistics Distribution of SuppliesDistribution of Supplies MedicalMedical

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Baseline COA Results Rations, Water, Shelter ROK refugee camps – no significant shortagesROK refugee camps – no significant shortages ROP coast – some shortagesROP coast – some shortages ROP interior – severe shortagesROP interior – severe shortages – Poor road and bridge conditions – Limited ports and airfields early in operation – Misallocated supply distribution (Ross Camp) ›Red Banner ›PAO Possible solution

DataData Thru C+30 Issue No Issue

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Baseline COA Results Deployment Pusan became congestedPusan became congested – Could not accommodate all available sealift at same time – Required staging of ships Using limited airlift for troop deployment delays relief of suffering, but …Using limited airlift for troop deployment delays relief of suffering, but … ROK Forces / ICRC deployed to ROP prior to C-DayROK Forces / ICRC deployed to ROP prior to C-Day – Decreased initial response time – In-place prior to Typhoon Nari – Overlooked by some groups

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Baseline COA Results Distribution of Supplies Repetitive Handling (2 - 5% Loss)Repetitive Handling (2 - 5% Loss) More pallets available than daily airlift can handleMore pallets available than daily airlift can handle TransportationTransportation – Timelines longer than expected ›C-130 speed ›MOG ›Download of supplies in SPOD / APOD ›Distro of supplies in the camps and central ROP – Method of transport (combinations are limitless) ›Ground vs Air ›Air vs. Sea ›Long distances in Asia

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Baseline COA Results Medical Pallet composition limited responsePallet composition limited response – Only 10% of the pallets contained meds – Pallets constructed before SOF assessment 30 times as many minor illness as serious30 times as many minor illness as serious Medical support slow to show improvementMedical support slow to show improvement

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Baseline COA Results Human Suffering* Baseline COA Results Human Suffering* *Using 10% Med in each pallet Little Impact

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell COA 3 RESULTS

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CPG 3 Ran simulation thru C+12Ran simulation thru C+12 Allowed ROP Airfield use at C DayAllowed ROP Airfield use at C Day – Some foreign airlift direct to ROP early Developed detailed COA thru C+3Developed detailed COA thru C+3 SROKA Deployment via Pusan Sealift on C+2SROKA Deployment via Pusan Sealift on C+2 ROKN LSTs used for supply distro between ROK and ROPROKN LSTs used for supply distro between ROK and ROP Engineers deployed very earlyEngineers deployed very early

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CPG 3 Results Supplies arrived in ROP earlySupplies arrived in ROP early Better Med resultsBetter Med results Infrastructure repaired earlierInfrastructure repaired earlier Transition to overland transport earlierTransition to overland transport earlier Early arrival of security force had limited impact on final outcomeEarly arrival of security force had limited impact on final outcome Significant improvement over baseline COASignificant improvement over baseline COA

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell CPG 3 Results Human Suffering* CPG 3 Results Human Suffering* *Using 50% Med in each pallet

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Simulation Strengths and Weaknesses StrengthsStrengths – Infrastructure Details – APOD / SPOD Capacities – Time / Space Visualization – Transportation Timelines – Degraded Road Conditions – Accounts for Illness / Death – Hospital Capacities – Detailed Data Output (Log) – Distributed Capabilities – Wargame plan – Mission Rehearsal WeaknessesWeaknesses – Time Intensive – Manpower Intensive – Cannot replicate C2 / Comms – Database Accuracy Importance (GIGO) – Extensive Preparation – Needs Trained Operators – Not an analysis tool

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell What this means to you … Simulation Helps Planning Process By …Simulation Helps Planning Process By … – Providing access to specific, detailed information… that CPG’s didn’t have time to develop – Indicating trends, choke points and problem areas – Visualizing COA (Time & Space) – Clarifying complex issues ›Sometimes raises more questions for the planner than it answers “Garbage in is garbage out” Cdr Wohlschlegel

TE-3 Simulation Support Cell Questions?Questions?