Summary of MAP D-PHASE Strategy and Requirements MAP D-PHASE / Olympics Project Meeting 6 February 2006 Prepared by: Ron McTaggart-Cowan

Outline ● Summary of 1 st MAP D-PHASE Science Meeting (November 2006, Vienna, Austria) ● Deliverables for MAP D-PHASE – Test Period (Feb 2007) – DOP (1 June - 30 November 2007) ● Status of EC contribution to MAP D-PHASE ● Relationship to Olympics Project ● Status of Olympics Project

Summary of MAP D-PHASE ● MAP Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the alpine region ● A Forecast Demonstration Project of the WWRP ● Organized by MeteoSwiss with collaboration from many European centers and universities ● Coordinates with COPS IOP ● Overlap with E-TReC 2007 MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE MAP D-PHASE and COPS output domains for 2007 DOP MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE ● Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers: – Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi- model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD) – Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities) ● Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE ● Preliminary verification strategies: – (real time) subjective evaluation by MAP D- PHASE forecasters from MeteoSwiss – (offline) from data archive by researchers in Austria using the Vienna enhanced resolution analysis (VERA) technique ● The key predictors will be related to flood forecasting, so the focus in on QPF MAP D-PHASE

Deliverables MAP D-PHASE (Test Period, 26 Feb – 2 March 2007) ● High resolution models (mesh size 1-3 km)run between 1 and 4 times daily ● Outputs are requested hourly for 41 surface fields, and a total of 134 upper air fields (mix of model level and pressure outputs) ● Gridded GRIB data will be interpolated to the D-PHASE domain and uploaded to the University of Hamburg ● Generated images will be sent to the Operations Centre MAP D-PHASE

Deliverables MAP D-PHASE (DOP, 1 June – 30 November 2007) ● In addition to the D-PHASE domain fields, all 41 surface fields, and a total of 134 upper air fields are requested at 15 minute intervals for the COPS domain from June to August ● Gridded GRIB data will be interpolated to the D-PHASE and COPS domains and uploaded to the University of Hamburg ● Generated images will be sent to the Operations Centre MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC Contribution ● Intention for twice-daily nested (10, 2.5 km) runs over the Test Period and DOP have been presented to the MAP collaborators ● Preliminary domains have been constructed ● Work has begun on postprocessing: – interpolation to final grids and GRIB generation – GrADS image generation ● No automation or operational consideration has been made MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC Contribution Timeline for tasks involved with completing EC contribution to MAP D-PHASE project. Green – started; Yellow – in planning stage; Red – not planned MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC Contribution ● Specific items that need to be discussed: – Model domain and configuration – Software requirements (GRIB, GrADS) – Storage requirements (temporary / long term) – User account / special account / operational – Host machine for real-time runs – Verification / model improvement strategy (identify collaborators) MAP D-PHASE

Relationship to Olympics Project ● Beijing 2008 is a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP) ● Both the status of the Beijing planning and the Australian support (based on Sydney 2000 experience) were presented in Vienna ● Both are end-to-end systems focused on high impact events using deterministic and ensemble approaches ● Offers of support were received from several European centres Olympics Project

Status of the Olympics Project ? Olympics Project

Next Steps for Olympics Project ● Define the current status of the project ● Establish a rough timeline ● Meet with involved / interested parties to finalize timeline ● Begin development ● [Based on the Australian experience, we should have a basic system ready for operational testing sometime in 2008] Olympics Project

Additional Information ● MAP D-PHASE Links: – MeteoSwiss MAP homepage doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm – EC Contribution Presentation