1. MAP D-PHASE Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alps June – November 2007

2. end-to-end flood forecasting system day 0 sub-domain X Action Time days -2, -1 sub-domain X limited-area EPS high-res det. model high-res LEPS hydrologic simulation high-res det. model Nowcasting latest obs no global EPS Event? Where? limited-area EPS Alert yes high-res det. model Confir- mation no global EPS high-res LEPS hydrologic simulation days -5, -4, -3

3. Participating models and institutions ensemble forecast systems; mesh-size 7-25 km COSMO-LEPSARPA-SIM, DLR LAMEPSUK Met Office GEM-LAMEnvironment Canada PEPSEUMETNET SRNWP deterministic high-resolution models; mesh-size 1-10 km aLMo/2MeteoSwiss LAMIARPA-SIM MOLOCHISAC-CNR ArômeMétéo France, CNRS ALADIN-AustriaZAMG LMKDWD UMUK Met Office GEM-LAMEnvironment Canada hydrologic modelsPREVAHIAC-ETH ‘hydrologic model’University of Brescia ‘hydrologic model’University of Trento DRIFTARPA-CMIRL ‘hydrologic model’ARPA-SIM ‘coupled hydrologic model’Météo France WATFLOODEnvironment Canada