Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Data mining in the joint D- PHASE and COPS archive Mathias.

Published byElisabeth O’Neal’ Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Data mining in the joint D- PHASE and COPS archive Mathias."— Presentation transcript:

1 Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Data mining in the joint D- PHASE and COPS archive Mathias W. Rotach, Marco Arpagaus Manfred Dorninger, Christoph Hegg, Andrea Montani, Roberto Ranzi, Volker Wulfmeyer COPS Workshop Hohenheim, 27-29 January 2008

2 2 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Data mining Data mining is the application of statistical - mathematical methods on a data set with the goal of pattern recognition. Thereby in particular those methods will be applied, which have excellent asymptotic run times. Thus data mining is often applied in connection with large data sets. Wikipedia

3 3 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What is available? 7 probabilistic and 23 high-resolution deterministic atmospheric models 7 coupled hydrological models (deterministic and probabilistic) Lots of model runs Lots of data

4 4 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What is available? 6 months, 180 days, 4380 hours > 10‘000 model runs (only atmospheric) > 20‘000‘000 warnings > 50‘000‘000 graphic files (only atmospheric) > 50‘000‘000 model fields (COPS domain, JJA ) from high-resolution models All stored at DA in Hamburg....and made possible through collaboration with COPS

5 5 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What can be done? Evaluate numerical models using COPS data --> find model deficiencies --> investigate key processes in orographic precipitation --> case studies Expect many examples

6 6 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What can be done? Evaluate numerical models in D-PHASE Domain Example: COSMO-LEPS SYNOP reports over the MAP D-PHASE (about 470 stations each day) 12h-cumulated precipitation Courtesy Chiara Marsigli and Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM

7 7 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) COSMO-LEPS Verification Brier Skill Score, JJA, D-PHASE domain, 12h, 10mm 2007 --> forecast range --> BSS

8 8 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) COSMO-LEPS Verification ROC area, JJA, D-PHASE domain, 12h, 10mm --> forecast range --> ROC area

9 9 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Ensemble System - biases COSMO-LEPS reforecasts 30 yrs for each day --> Correct for systematic model errors (spatial & temporal) --> Calibrate over the whole model domain --> Increase the skill (reliability) of the forecast --> Infer on extremity of the forecast Courtesy Felix Fundel, MeteoSwiss & NCCR Climate

10 10 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) New warning index: Probability to exceed a Return Period, PRP Approach: - Use the model climatology to find a return level for a certain return period (for each grid point) - Find number of forecasts exceeding the return level - Give a probability to exceed the return level/period (PRP) (- Use Extreme Value Aanalysis for very rare events (e.g. fit of a GPD)) Syntax: PRP x = Probab. to exceed an event occurring with a return period according to the x-quantile Example: PRP 0.8 = event occurs every 5th day COSMO-LEPS reforecast

11 11 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Warning Product PRP PRP.994 (once in 6 Augusts) 24h rainfall 2007.08.08-2007.08.09

12 12 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Warning Product PRP x

13 13 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Warning Product Warngram

14 14 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Verification Verification of the PRP x Domain Switzerland Verification on CLEPS 10km x 10km grid PRP x from observations necessary Compare uncalibrated to calibrated PRP x 24h total precipitation 1971-2000 >440 stations in Switzerland interpolated on CLEPS grid at least 3 Stations/grid point search radius 2-4 grid points distance weighting Observation Climatology

15 15 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Verification Relative improvement

16 16 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Verification Relative improvement

17 17 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Verification Relative improvement

18 18 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What can be done? Compare different high-resolution models Example: Radar data composit over Switzerland Summer (JJA) 2007 Courtesy Felix Ament, MeteoSwiss

19 19 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Verification of precipitation amount Switzerland, summer (JJA) Individual warning region, summer (JJA) Individual warning region, 3h resolution, summer (JJA)

20 20 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Warngings – yellow level (yellow = frequency 10x per year) Warning frequency 0.91 Probability to correctly warn (hit rate) 51% False alarm ratio 45% and but COSMO-2

21 21 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What can be done? Investigate properties of ensemble systems @ small scales Single model vs. multi model --> ‚micro PEPS‘ (Michael Denhard, DWD) Initial perturbations --> lagged ensembles --> physical perturbation --> spread-skill relations Predictability (convection)

22 22 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) What can be done? All the hydrological components..... Countesy S. Jaun ETHZ

23 23 D-PHASE | COPS Workshop, 27-29 January 2008 Hohenheim, D Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) Summary Lots of possibilities Let‘s just do it!

Download ppt "Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Data mining in the joint D- PHASE and COPS archive Mathias."

Similar presentations

1 October 26, 2009 8 th COPS Workshop, Cambridge, UK COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study) Goal: Advance the quality of forecasts.

1 October 26, th COPS Workshop, Cambridge, UK COPS (Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study) Goal: Advance the quality of forecasts.
COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy.

COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy.
MAP D-PHASE Forecast Demonstration Project Instrument of WWRP Last phase of MAP Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss.

MAP D-PHASE Forecast Demonstration Project Instrument of WWRP Last phase of MAP Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Improving COSMO-LEPS forecasts of extreme events with.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Improving COSMO-LEPS forecasts of extreme events with.
Ensemble activities in COSMO C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy.

Ensemble activities in COSMO C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy.
Gridded OCF Probabilistic Forecasting For Australia For more information please contact © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 Shaun Cooper.

Gridded OCF Probabilistic Forecasting For Australia For more information please contact © Commonwealth of Australia 2011 Shaun Cooper.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss The Latent Heat Nudging Scheme of COSMO EWGLAM/SRNWP Meeting,

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss The Latent Heat Nudging Scheme of COSMO EWGLAM/SRNWP Meeting,
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Alps – first.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Alps – first.
MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC.

MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim,
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics University of Vienna since 1851 since 1365 TOWARDS AN ANALYSIS ENSEMBLE FOR NWP-MODEL VERIFICATION Manfred Dorninger,

Department of Meteorology and Geophysics University of Vienna since 1851 since 1365 TOWARDS AN ANALYSIS ENSEMBLE FOR NWP-MODEL VERIFICATION Manfred Dorninger,
Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.

Ensemble Post-Processing and it’s Potential Benefits for the Operational Forecaster Michael Erickson and Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric.
Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.

Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting. The National Weather Service The National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for forecasts several times.
ECMWF WWRP/WMO Workshop on QPF Verification - Prague, 14-16 May 2001 NWP precipitation forecasts: Validation and Value Deterministic Forecasts Probabilities.

ECMWF WWRP/WMO Workshop on QPF Verification - Prague, May 2001 NWP precipitation forecasts: Validation and Value Deterministic Forecasts Probabilities.
1 On the use of radar data to verify mesoscale model precipitation forecasts Martin Goeber and Sean Milton Model Diagnostics and Validation group Numerical.

1 On the use of radar data to verify mesoscale model precipitation forecasts Martin Goeber and Sean Milton Model Diagnostics and Validation group Numerical.
The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation:

The WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE on flood forecasting in the Alps Authors: Arpagaus, Dorninger, Hegg, Montani, Ranzi, Rotach Presentation:
Summary of MAP D-PHASE Strategy and Requirements MAP D-PHASE / Olympics Project Meeting 6 February 2006 Prepared by: Ron McTaggart-Cowan.

Summary of MAP D-PHASE Strategy and Requirements MAP D-PHASE / Olympics Project Meeting 6 February 2006 Prepared by: Ron McTaggart-Cowan.
How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.

How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss High-resolution data assimilation in COSMO: Status and.

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss High-resolution data assimilation in COSMO: Status and.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google