Presidential Primaries: pt 2

Who are the frontrunners? 2015 = 2011, 2007, 2003

Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in early polls? How do rules affect who wins nomination?

How it worked in 2012 About 2286 delegates at stake (R) An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc. Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1 Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events

How it worked in 2008 About 4200 delegates at stake (D) An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl (1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states)

2012 Nomination Schedule (R) State # delegates % of total IA % NH 12*0.52% SC 25* 1.09% NV % FL 50* 2.18% ME % CO & MN % AZ & MI 59*2.58% WA (3/3) % March % 34% of delegates awarded by March

2012 GOP Nomination Super Tuesday less super AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA Which candidate advantaged? PR until April 1 Harder for frontrunner to deliver ‘knockout’ blow Does longer process harm nominee?

2008 Nomination Schedule (D) State # delegates % of total IA % NV 25.59% NH 22.52% SC % FL (1/29) % 23 states on 2/ % WA on 2/ % LA, NE, VI (2/9) % 61% of delegates awarded by Feb

Primary campaigns Concentrate resources on early states Visits, spending, ads Hope for momentum; force others out early See Washington Post map Iowa (Jan 3) New Hampshire (Jan 10) New Hampshire ( Washington (March 3)

How it works Frontloading Early wins for frontrunner IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday Momentum & inevitability or.... no clear winner Party Establishment advantage PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%) Funding Most early money = winner

Frontrunners, early ’07 - ‘ frontrunners H. R. Clinton led national polls Oct 06 - Feb 08 led IA polls Aug - Dec 07 Giuliani Led national polls 2007 Romney led in IA McCain never more than 20% until Jan

Frontrunners early ‘11 - ‘ frontrunner? Trump (26% April ‘11) Romney (25% June ) Bachman (27% IA Aug) Perry (32% Sept) Cain (26% Oct.) Gingrich (35% Dec.) Paul (25% IA Dec.) Romney (26% Jan ‘12)

Iowa 2012, result Romney24.5 Santorum24.5 Paul21.4 Gingrich13.3 Perry 10.3 Bachman 5.0 Huntsman 0.6

What Influence of Iowa & NH? Since Carter (1976) More visits to IA More time in IA More spending in IA More media in IA same w/ NH Greater importance of IA? 2015 Straw poll 2007 Straw poll Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee Dan Quayle 1999

Why Iowa & New Hampshire Why do these states go first? National party rule, tradition, stupidity Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? Momentum, momentum, momentum

Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa

Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa

How about this guy? John Edwards Never considered a frontrunner pre-’04 50% of Dems never heard of him in 2003 “Second place” in IA 2004 (Dems don’t report votes).

Or this guy? Led some national polls in 2003 Fundraising leader = major expectations Third place in IA The Scream Stick a fork in it

The Scream People in NH reported seeing “scream” at least 11 times prior to voting in their primary Fox News version Crowd version

Opinion in Iowa, Jan 5-Feb 14-Mar 29-Apr 12-May 6-Jun 2-Jul 3-Aug 29-Aug 14-Sep 15-Oct23-Oct31-Oct 9-Nov 24-Nov 19-Dec 6-Jan 19-Jan date ed gep kerry dean

Jan 5-Feb 14-Mar 29-Apr 12-May 6-Jun 2-Jul 3-Aug 29-Aug 14-Sep 15-Oct23-Oct31-Oct 9-Nov 24-Nov 19-Dec 6-Jan 19-Jan date How Does it Play in the Media: Dean ’ s “ Stunning Setback. ” Iowa,

Failed frontrunner, 2008 Mitt Romney Lost IA to Mike Huckabee Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007 Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads Won Aug ‘07 IA straw poll Earned media, earned high expectations

GOP trends IA loss = Romney never got traction nationally He lead in IA polls for months in 2007 Lost IA to a guy w/ a funny Youtube adYoutube ad 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc End of Romney ‘08

2011 Iowa GOP trends Through October 2011 Bachmann ?? Perry Debate fail Cain Herminated

Iowa GOP trend Pre Iowa, early Jan Romney ahead Santorum gaining Result: Romney and Santorum tied

2012 Post Iowa GOP trend (Natl) Santorum unknown in national polls pre IA Becomes main challenger to Romney

Early Momentum Many campaigns believe that performance in early events determines their fate “Performance” in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation

IA, NH, and Expectations New Hampshire 1972 Ed Muskie 46% George McGovern37% Interpretation Muskie “cried”

IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1976 Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% lost to “Uncommitted” (37%) Interprentation: “Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1” NYT

IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1988 Dick Gephart 31% Paul Simon 27% Mike Dukakis 22% Interpretation: Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well Dukakis “strong showing”

IA, NH and expectations Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996 Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd) Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%) Interpretation “Hart scores upset”....32% behind Mondale, beat McGovern “strong second in surprise” NYT

IA, NH & Expectations 1992, NH Reality Paul Tsongas 33% Bill Clinton 24 % Bob Kerry 11 % Interpretation Big win for Clinton, the “comeback kid” Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do poorly

IA, NH & Expectations NH 2004 Kerry 39% Dean 26% Clark 13 % Edwards 12 % Interpretation two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in wrong time zone

Media influence & expectations Basis of initial expectations standing in early polls fundraising Beating early expectations Big shift in attention (deserved?) Failing to meet expectations Big drop in attention

Media influence & expectations How was the 2012 result interpreted by media What were expectations? Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce? Who failed to meet expectations?

Beating expectations (Media shift) Hart % Reagan % Clinton % Buchanan28% Carter % Huckabee % Robertson % Obama %

Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney33% pre, 37% post Paul20% pre, 17% post Gingrich20% pre, 11% post Perry9% pre, 7% post Bachman7% pre, 3% post Santorum9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post

Lessons from 2008 & 2012 Early frontrunners not always strong Polls capture name ID ‘08 Dem process = real danger of no clear winner Frontloading doesn’t always help frontrunners Instant fundraising now possible (Internet)

Lessons from 2008 & 2012 Could Obama or Romney have won w/o Iowa? 4 days between IA and NH Could Huckabee, Santorum have been noticed w/o Iowa Could Obama have won w/o the Internet?

Lessons Sequence matters IA, NH matter....too much? The schedule matters ? What if NV went first? NY? WA? What reforms?

Earliest polls for 2012 The polls: Feb, April, Dec ‘10 Palin 25%, 15%, 17% Huck 32%, 24%, 18% Rom 21%, 20%, 19%

Looking back to 2007 Dem, Jan ‘07, 1 year before IA Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3% GOP, Jan ‘07 1 year before IA Giuliani 32% McCain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1%

Looking back to 2011 GOP, Jan ‘11, 1 year before IA Huckabee 30% Romney 18% Palin 16% Gingrich 13% Paul 6% Pawlenty 4% Dem, Jan ‘15 Clinton 66% Warren 9% Bidden 8% Sanders 4% GOP, Jan ’15 (Dec 21 ‘ 14) Bush 23% Christie 13% Carson 7% Paul, Rubio, Cruz, Ryan 5%

Reforms Regional Primaries National primary What if everyone voted Jan 2012? Feb 2012? See RCP averages Closed primaries Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos

Reforms Regional primary how implement? who goes first? Delaware Plan 10 smallest states first 10 next largest states, etc.

Why Iowa, NH, etc.? Face to face campaigns ‘Teaching’ people in other states Unrepresentative of US voters Low participation