1. The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

2. Office Hours When – Today- 11-2 – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. THE INVISIBLE PRIMARY

5. The Invisible Primary (Historically) The Time from the first Declaration to the Iowa caucus The media shapes your expectations and standings Fundraising was the barometer

6. The Modern Invisible Primary No longer invisible Constant Polls and debates measure success Candidates read the handwriting

7. Constant Debating

9. You Cant tell the players without a scorecard Who was in the Race?

10. MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE

11. Ron Paul Representative from Texas The “libertarian candidate” A Long Shot at Best

12. Newt Gingrich Former Speaker of the House from Georgia Architect of the 1994 Republican sweep Out of Politics for a Decade

13. Michele Bachmann Representative from MN Tea Party Supporter The only woman in the race

14. THE LONG SHOT

15. Herman Cain CEO of Godfather Pizza No Political Experience Guest Host of Rush Limbaugh Show

16. How the Candidates looked

17. THE NEW MITT ROMNEY

18. The 2008 Conservative Tried to Position himself as business conservative Largely Ignored social issues

19. No Traction in 2008 Self-financed No Nationwide appeal Flip-flopper

20. The 2008 Campaign Wasn’t Built for the long haul Deliver a 1-2 Punch He doesn’t even get a 1

21. Attacked from the Right Romney and Huckabee go after each other Romney spends all his money This opens the door for McCain

22. Romney in 2012 Diffuse the Religion issue Call anyone who attacks a religious bigot The attacks never come

23. Romney in 2012 More accepting of attacks Didn’t Punch down Avoided controversy Made himself more approachable

24. JOCKEYING TO BE THE UNROMNEY

25. The GOP in November

26. Being the Unromney Positioning yourself as the alternate to Romney He was viewed as a flawed and vulnerable front runner Every time someone grabbed it, they faltered

27. The Iowa Straw Poll Bachmann wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll Spent much of her money to win No one cared as Perry announced that same day

28. Bachmann’s Brief Time as Unromney Migraine headaches kept her off the trail Took abuse for neglecting her family Criticized for her appearance.

29. Herman Cain: The Next Unromney Led the Race in October 9-9-9 Very Popular

30. The End of Herman Cain Accused of Harassment while head of National Restaurant Association This signals the End of the Campaign The Romney Camp is actually disappointed.

31. THE FALL AND RISE OF NEWT GINGRICH The Next Unromney

32. The Fall of Newt Gingrich Spent more time and money on his wife Staff Deserted him No Money

33. Gingrich’s Problems Needed the Other Conservatives out of the Race Find Money Had to Hang on until South Carolina

34. The Reemergence of Gingrich The Best Red Meat Debater in the field http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To_g23JkXnU http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtkSFGkjaXU The Most political experience No one “punched down” at him

35. RICK SANTORUM

36. The Most Unlikely Unromney Was 4 or 5 th in Most Polls Lost his last race by 18 points Largely Ignored

37. The Santorum Message Said what was on his mind Small Government Populism Blue Collar Roots appealed to working class voters

38. RICK PERRY AS THE UNROMNEY

39. Perry in 2009 He is trailing KBH by 20 Points He was seen as being more lucky than Good People thought He had no chance

40. For the GOP Nomination Claims she is untested and too moderate for the Texas GOP He aligns himself with the Tea Party He makes himself an outsider despite 20 years in Government

41. Perry in 2010 Used the GOP majorities to push conservative policies Pro Job Pro Gun Anti-DC

42. He Goes after the Third Rail

43. Perry Announces 8/13/2011 Charleston S.C. on the day of the Iowa Straw Poll Strong support among conservatives The primaries should be easy for him

44. 12 days after he announces, he is the Unromney 29-17

45. From there his campaign falls apart