Scenarios and visions SESSION 1 Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, February 2013 How to think about the future? Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

2 Why to look at the future? How the future looks like? How to do it? Tools and methods Projections Scenarios Using scenarios for strategy making Scenario planning process

Why to think about the future? We don’t know the future We all think about the future every day … there are no future facts “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” Søren Kierkegaard there is increasing interest and need because of increasing dynamic, changes and complexity

The need to look ahead “The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” (Einstein) “For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making.” (Commissioner Poto č nik) New thinking Preparedness

The Unknown As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know, there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns. The ones we don't know, we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld (12. Feb 2003, DOD Press Conference)

They didn’t see it coming … "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Thomas John Watson – President of IBM ( ) “Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual sales for PCs in the 1980s: over 25,000,000.” IBM, 1979

8 The challenge, in an institutional sense, is to develop processes that shift individual, and often unconscious thinking to collective and conscious thinking. Designing your own response to the future infers: challenging unstated assumptions about the future – yours, and your institution’s, challenging the status quo, and thinking differently.

How the future looks like? Uncertian

How to deal with the future? Many tools exist

Right tools at the right time Zureck and Henrichs, 2007

Tools: Forecast (…..and than reality): European wind association, 2008 IEA long-term forecasts of annual publications: World Is it the right tool?

Single – point forecast Today … you get it wrong! Trends Timing Range of uncertainties The danger of forecasting is… “It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.”

Tools: Scenarios Scenarios are … a plausible description of how the future may unfold based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (STEEP). Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. …can be qualitative or combined with quantitative

Slide 16 When are “scenarios” used? 1) Support strategic planning/ decision making by: illustrating options for the future supporting robust decisisons by analysing related uncertainties, drivers and surprises Can we prevent some problems by collection early warnings and acting early (or precautionary)? 2) Improve the information base and relevance: Are we measuring /monitoring relevant issues? Will we met the targets/ goals 3) Science – Research 4) Education / Public Information to educate and teach to raise awareness

17 Emerging issues Earyl warnings Scenarios, tipping points, surprises, discontinuities Distance to target analyses Projections Uncertainties analyses Scenarios (policy options) Scenarios to strategies Forward-looking component in IS Scenarios –options, goals, measures

EXAMPLE: Millennium assessment scenarios: biodiversity and economic growth

EXAMPLE: EEA Land use scenarios: scale of governance and markets

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Scenario thinking process We are here

Scenario thinking for strategy building process Elements of strategy From today to the future - strategy Revisiting existing strategy Scenario planning process 23

24 The elements of strategy

From today to the future

4 approaches to place the bets in strategies according to scenarios Core + satellites One big bet Several bets Robust

Scenarios used to check existing visions

Scenarios used to check existing strategies Wind-tunelling

30 The Scenario Planning Process: A Visual Overview (Concept Map Courtesy of Decision Strategies International)

Thank you!

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Scenarios to strategies Scenarios are plausible futures. With the strategy we want to make desired future happen.

Typical project structure Analysis and Implica- tions for policy Underpinning review of evidence base Systems mapping Scenario development Qualitative modelling of policy response impact Development of quantitative model and analysis Action Scoping