2. Time horizon of knowledge developing new product concepts
(Tutti/Masina tutkimusprojekti, Leppimäki et al., 2004)
Tutkimuksemme mukaan tuotekonseptointi on jaettavissa kolmeen kategoriaan: visioiva (visioning), kehittävä (emerging) ja määrittelevä (defining) tuotekonseptointi. Neljäs kategoria on ratkaiseva (solving) konseptointi, jota siis tehdään tuotekehitysprojektin sisällä.
Visioivaksi tuotekonseptoinniksi voidaan lukea konseptihankkeet, joilla kartoitetaan pitkän aikavälin eli tulevaisuuden tuotemahdollisuuksia
Kehittävässä tuotekonseptoinnissa voidaan esimerkiksi tutkia lupaavia teknologioita ja uusia, potentiaalisia markkinoita, sekä tunnustella nousevien käyttäjätarpeiden luomia mahdollisuuksia
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

3. Dynamic Business Environment
As Mintzberg (1978) has stated that innovations and strategies can develop with or without organizational intent.
Strategic intent
Emerging
strategy
Planned strategy
Realized
strategy -
Emerging
strategy
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

4. Position of the Company
The Competence Gap
Vision
What business are we in?
Strategy
Competence Gap
Position of the Company
(Rönkkö, 2005)
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

5. Introduction of Scenarios
Future research methods can be divided into quantitative / qualitative and exploratory / normative techniques.
Scenario method is seen as a qualitative and exploratory technique, but the scenarios can be either explorative or normative.
Scenario method is traditionally considered as a strategy formation tool
Scenarios are logical and plausible descriptions about the future development
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

6. Scenario approach The fundamental idea:
To provide a structured way to create a dynamic interaction between the environment and the organization
Scenarios enables:
Management of collaborative networking process
Analysis the past and present environment
Strategic conversation
To challenge the present assumptions and mental maps
Determination of the determinants of the future “driving forces”
Recognition and evaluation of future opportunities
Creation of new knowledge
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

7. Purpose of scenarios To understand the environment 
to reveal important question/issues needed to research
To understand the ongoing changing environment 
To create quality to strategic conversation
To create superior strategy 
No learning and difficult to sustain success
Adaptive learning 
Continuous enhancing of competitive performance  motivates to engage in new actions
Van der Heijden 2004
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

8. Scenario process (mega)trends Scenario process Strategy formation
Phase 1.
Phase 2.
Phase 4.
Phase 3.
Environmental analysis
Weak signals
(mega)trends
Business environment (PESTE analysis)
Stakeholders
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Vision
Scenario process
Strategy formation
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

9. Future anticipation process
(Leppimäki et al. 2003)
Klikkaa kuvaa  Tutu-taul.
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

10. 2. heuristic (van der Heijden, Schoemaker, Meristö)
SCENARIO PROCESS
Scenario approaches can be classified into intuitive (Schwartz, Wack, SRI)
2. heuristic (van der Heijden, Schoemaker, Meristö)
3. statistic models (Godet).
Definition of the focus of business environment (socialization)
Analysis of gathered knowledge and knowledge creation (externalization)
Implementation of scenarios and learning (internalization)
Creation of scenarios (combination of knowledge)
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

11. Scenario approaches Schwartz van der Heijden Schoemaker Masini Godet
1. Exploration of a strategic issue
1. Structuring of the scenario process
1. Framing the scope
1. Description of the process
1. Delimitation of the context
2. Identification of actors & stakeholders
2. Delimitation of the context
2. Identification of the key variables
2. Identification of external key forces
2. Exploring the context of the issue
3. Exploring the predetermined elements
3. Identification of the variables
3. Analysis of past trends and actors
3. Exploring the past trends
4. Identification of Uncertainties
4. Identification of the key variables
4. Analysis of the interaction of actors and the environment
4. Evaluation of the environmental forces
5. Construction of initial scenarios
5. Identification of the uncertainties
5. Creation of the logic of initial scenarios
3. Developing the scenarios
6. Assessment the initial scenarios
6. Identification of actors
5. Creation of the environmental scenarios
6. Creation of final scenarios
4. Stakeholder analysis
7. Creation of the final learning scenarios
7. Formulation of hypothetical questions
6. Building the final scenarios
5. System check, evaluation
8. Evaluation of the stakeholders
8. Building the scenarios
7. Implications for the decision making
8. Follow-up research
6. Action planning
9. Action planning
10. Reassessment of the scenarios and decision making
9. Implementation and action planning
7. Identification of strategic options
8. Action planning
Schwartz  Intuitive approach; Others  Heuristic approach; Godet  Statistic approach
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006

12. References
Godet, M. (2000): The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Technological forecasting and social change, 65, 3-22.
Godet, M. & Roubelat, F. (1996): Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios, Long Rang Planning, 29, 2,
Jääskö & Keinonen (Eds.) (2004): Tuotekonseptointi, Teknologiainfo, Teknova Oy. Isbn:
Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S.C., McGee, V.E. (1983). Forecasting: Methods and applications. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1991): When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration, Journal of forecasting, 10,
Schwartz, P. (1996): The Art of the Long View - Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Doubleday Dell publishing Inc., New York, USA.
van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R. , George, B., Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002): The Sixth Sense - Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chinchester, UK.
Wack, P. (1985a): Scenarios uncharted waters ahead, Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct,
Wack, P. (1985b): Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec,
Jukka Bergman
TBRC
April 4, 2006