1 1 Technology and Economic Assessment Panel Report on 2014 Assessment M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

2013 TEAP members Stephen O. Andersen, USA Paul Ashford, UK Mohamed Besri, Morocco Biao Jiang, PRC David V. Catchpole, UK Sergey Kopylov, Russia Lambert Kuijpers, Netherlands Bella Maranion, USA Michelle Marcotte, Canada Keiichi Ohnishi, Japan Roberto de A. Peixoto, Brazil Marta Pizano, Colombia Jose Pons-Pons, Venezuela Ian Porter, Australia Miguel Quintero, Colombia Ian D. Rae, Australia Helen Tope, Australia Daniel P. Verdonik, USA Ashley Woodcock, UK Masaaki Yamabe, Japan Shiqiu Zhang, PRC

M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k 3 TEAP 2014 Assessment report TOCs are making organisational preparations for the drafting of the 2014 assessment reports involving about 150 experts. TOCs have scheduled the meetings for the Assessment Report and considered the topics to be addressed Some TOCs have already had preparatory meetings in 2012 and 2013 TEAP, through its TOCs co-chairs, is working to ensure continuity in the work by managing expected attrition in its memberships and, in particular, the TOC membership re- appointment process through 2014 following Decision XXIII/10. As required by the TOR, TOCs will strive for a balance of appropriate expertise so that their reports are comprehensive, objective and policy-neutral.

4 Various TOC developments preparing for the 2014 Assessment (1) CTOC will work to minimise the potential impact on the development of its report with two chairs retiring, one of them being replaced.  FTOC has continued to strengthen geographic representation – particularly with respect to Article 5 members + poorly represented technologies (e.g. PU spray foam).  HTOC has recruited new members (Brazil, Italy, UK) from civil aviation sector, participating in the development of the report.  No MTOC meetings are planned for the 2014 Assessment, MTOC will conduct the 2014 Assessment electronically as it has done in its last two assessments. M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, 2 1 – 2 5 O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

5 Various TOC developments preparing for the 2014 Assessment (2)  MBTOC’s three remaining co-chairs will work to minimise the potential impact of the retirement of one MBTOC co-chair. RTOC has increased the number of Article 5 members participating. Particularly the expertise in the commercial refrigeration and air conditioning chapters (the sectors with highest HCFC consumption) has been strengthened. M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, 2 1 – 2 5 O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

6 6 Essential elements for the Assessment 2014 for the various TOCs M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

7 CTOC: main items for the 2014 Assessment Decreases in process agent uses Increases in feedstock uses New low-GWP alternative solvents entering the market Uncertainties in Carbon Tetrachloride emissions M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, 2 1 – 2 5 O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

8 FTOC: main items for the 2014 Assessment Overview of transition progress, characterising challenging areas Progress with HPMPs and foam sector Article 5 transitions remaining Challenges with PU Spray Foams and XPS Enterprise size and economies of scale Drivers for reducing saturated HFC use in non-Article 5 countries Quantitative update on global blowing agent consumption Data collection based on 2012 data – referring to 2013 trends where transitions are on-going Projections of business-as-usual trends to 2020 Emerging low-GWP alternatives Latest status of unsaturated HFC/HCFC Progress with other low GWP alternative blowing agents Updates on Banks and Management strategies M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , Bangkok

M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P m e e t i n g, O c t , B a n g k o k 9 HTOC: main items for the 2014 Assessment Evaluation of the development status of new chemical alternatives. Continued reliance on halons in the military and industrial sectors. Update on the International Civil Aviation Organization/HTOC progress on the phase-out of halons in civil aviation as required by Decision XXII/11. On 4 October 2013, ICAO adopted a new Resolution on continuing progress towards development of halon replacements in civil aviation and directed its Council to report on a timeframe for cargo compartment halon replacement at its next Assembly in 2016 Status of halon destruction technologies. Update on halon emissions estimates.

10 MTOC: main items for the 2014 Assessment Progress in CFC MDI phase-out and any remaining challenges. CFC use for MDIs has substantially decreased and manufacturing phase- out is anticipated by Progress in ODS phase-out for sterilisation, and medical aerosols other than MDIs. Alternatives continue to replace the use of HCFCs in sterilisation. There are very few, if any, remaining ODS uses of medical aerosols other than MDIs Progress on alternative technologies, such as HFC MDIs, dry powder inhalers, aqueous sprays and any other emerging technologies. M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

MBTOC 2014 Assessment Report – Controlled Uses (3,200 t) Progress in MB phase out for controlled Pre-plant Soil Uses (approx. 3,000 t): Non-Article 5 Parties (approx. 400 t): Technical, regulatory and economic issues for the two remaining sectors applying for CUNs (strawberry nurseries and fruit). Article 5 Parties (approx. 2,500 t in 2012): Progress with final stages of phase out by 2015, particularly issues making the adoption of alternatives in key sectors difficult. Economic issues related to the use of alternatives e.g. adoption of soil-less culture Progress in MB phase out for controlled uses for Structures and Commodities in non-Article 5 and Article 5 Parties (approx. 300 t): Focus on 1) avoiding and managing pest resistance, 2) training leading to correct use of alternatives and 3) improvements in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and adoption of controlled and modified atmospheres. More information is needed on pest control problems and solutions for Article 5 cereal and dry commodity storage.

MBTOC 2014 Assessment Report – Exempted Uses (QPS - approx. 11,000 t) 80% of current global MB use is exempted from Montreal Protocol control as QPS QPS pre-plant soil use in non-Article 5 Parties (approx. 2,000 t): challenges in a range of sectors, including ornamental, fruit, forest and strawberry plant nurseries, and turf. QPS uses for perishable and durable commodities, and structures: detailed breakdown of the uses, and the sectors where alternatives are being successfully used to replace MB. Reasons for substantial increases in exempted QPS use in certain regions.

An analysis of the use of refrigerants in each RAC application chapter, classified as follows: Ammonia (R-717), Carbon dioxide (R-744) and hydrocarbons (HC-290 and others) HCFCs HFCs HFOs (unsaturated HFCs and HCFCs) Market availability, barriers and restrictions (safety, efficiency etc.), current trends, and costs for the applications in each (sub-) sector. Estimates on refrigerant banks and emissions. A new chapter on “Sustainable Refrigeration, AC and Heat Pumps”. An elaboration on the mobile air conditioning sector regarding the application of low GWP alternatives. RTOC: main items for the 2014 Assessment M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

14 Technology and Economic Assessment Panel Schedule and Content 2014 Assessment M o n t r e a l P r o t o c o l M O P - 2 5, O c t o b e r , B a n g k o k

15 TEAP 2014 Assessment Report Schedule The TOCs will complete the assessment reports by the end of Subsequently, the TEAP Assessment report will be completed and available early in Content Key messages. Summarised TOC executive summaries. Complete TOC executive summaries. Cross-cutting technical and economic issues.