GLOBAL WARMING What are the Facts and Impacts on Energy Policy Issues? GLOBAL WARMING What are the Facts and Impacts on Energy Policy Issues? Sallie Baliunas Harvard University and the George C. Marshall Institute

 The scientific facts do not support drastic CO 2 emission cuts.  The Kyoto Agreement would fail to stop model-forecast global warming. CONSEQUENCES FROM SCIENCE

20 TH C SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS NOT CLOSELY LINKED TO THE AIR’S CONTENT OF HUMAN-MADE GREENHOUSE GASES Thermometer measurements, available only for approximately 20% of the globe, analyzed by East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The air’s Co 2 content rose rapidly after the 1950s, and that rise does not readily explain the early 20 th c warming and mid-century cooling trends.

NO GLOBAL WARMING IN CRITICAL AIR LAYER: LOWER TROPOSPHERE Satellite measurements of the lower troposphere (approximately 1-5 miles altitude) show no meaningful human-made global warming trend, in contradiction to the models. Data are from J. Christy, NASA-MSFC

Alaskan temperatures have tended to warm during the positive phases of the PDO ( and ) Data are from S. Hare and N. Mantua PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION

ALASKA TEMPERATURES SHOW PDO AND NOT HUMAN-CAUSED WARMING Composite temperatures from best records: Fairbanks, Anchorage, Nome and Barrow. Since 1978 (after the Great Pacific Climate Shift of , caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO) the average temperature has dropped nearly 1F. Source: Willie Soon

A NATURAL CAUSE FOR RECENT SURFACE WARMING? NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE Left – Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere surface temperature; see S. Baliunas and W. Soon Right – NASA Image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra satellite.

A SUN – CLIMATE LINK? NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND TEMPERATURE AND SOLAR CYCLE Left – Changes in the sun’s output are strongly correlated with terrestrial temperatures where records are available. Data are from S. Baliunas and W. Soon Right – YOKOH satellite image of one million C plasma in the sun’s outer atmosphere. The plasma is shaped and heated by magnetic fields.

U.S. ENERGY AND COAL USE DIMINISH UNDER KYOTO -- EIA FORECASTS FOR 2010 EIA(1998) Impacts of the kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity Total Consumption Petroleum Products Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Power Renewable Energy

KYOTO PROTOCOL WOULD AVERT ONLY 0.06 C OF GLOBAL WARMING BY 2050 Fully implementing the Kyoto Protocol would not produce a meaningful abatement of the projected warming trend. Equivalently, the forecast warming that would have developed by 2050 occurs by Model results are for the UKMO HadCM3 IS92a model.

 The scientific facts do not support drastic CO 2 emission cuts.  The Kyoto Agreement would fail to stop model-forecast global warming. CONSEQUENCES FROM SCIENCE