Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959) Howland Will Case Robinson v. Mandell, 20 F. Cas. 1027 (C.C.D. Mass. 1868) (No. 11,959)

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Fact Summary 1836- Hetty Robinson goes to live with her grandfather and aunt, Sylvia Ann Howland January 11, 1862- Sylvia and Hetty write respective wills Between 1862 and 1863- Sylvia’s physician, Dr. Gordon, writes a letter to Hetty that Sylvia will no longer receive Hetty at her home September 1, 1863- Sylvia signs another will November 18, 1864- Sylvia signs a codicil July 2, 1865- Sylvia dies and leaves an estate worth over $2 million August 1865- Hetty contests the will claiming Sylvia was not mentally competent November 1865- Hetty withdraws August case December 2, 1865- Hetty sues executors of Sylvia’s will November 14, 1868- Hetty’s case is dismissed December 17, 1868- Hetty appeals but later settles with the trustees

Comparison of the Wills January 11, 1862 Will September 1, 1863/ November 18, 1864 Will Majority of estate left to Hetty $100,000 left to friends, causes, institutions Hetty was also to write a will giving money to her future children or Sylvia’s causes Both were to exclude Hetty’s father from any inheritance Alleged amended page that made any subsequent wills invalid Half of estate left to Hetty in a trust Half of estate left to friends, causes, institutions Paid out by Executor Thomas Mandell, Dr. Gordon(Sylvia’s doctor), etc. as they deemed fit

The Trial Prosecution Defense Dr. Oliver Wendell Holmes Louis Agassiz John Quincy Adams J.C. Crossman George Morse John Lowell George Mathiot Thomas Mullin Samuel Swett Joseph Willard George Sawyer Albert Southworth George Comer James Congdon Charles Putnam Solomon Lincoln George Phippen, Jr. Joseph Paine John Williams Benjamin Peirce Charles Sanders Peirce

The Statistics Were the signatures forged? Null hypothesis: Signatures are authentic Count number and position of downstrokes on 42 undisputed signatures 861 pairs to check and 30 different downstrokes = 25,830 comparisons Agreement 20.6% of time Product rule= 0.206^30= chance that signatures are identical

The Model

The Statistics Points of Consideration 0.206^30 does not equal “once in 2,666 millions of millions of millions” 20 cases agreed 13-30 times Model does not fit data at tails Always assumed independence Did not look at probability of matches in certain positions Did not review signatures made closer in time

References Howland, S. A. (1890). The Howland will case. The American Law Register (1852-1891), 38(9, New Series Volume 29 (Second Series, Vol. 3)), 562-581. Meier, P., & Zabell, S. (1980). Benjamin Peirce and the Howland will. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75(371), 497-506. Schneps, L., & Colmez, C. (2013). Math on trial: How numbers get used and abused in the courtroom. New York: Basic Books. Slack, C. (2004). Hetty: The genius and madness of America's first female tycoon. New York: ECCO. Sparkes, B., & Moore, S. T. (1930). Hetty Green: A woman who loved money. Garden City, NY: Doubleday, Doran. Wallach, J. (2012). The richest woman in America: Hetty Green in the gilded age. New York: Nan A. Talese/Doubleday.