Linking Land Use/Land Cover and Biogeochemistry Mateus Batistella Embrapa Satellite Monitoring Chris Potter NASA - AMES

Task (Thanks Mercedes and Michael!) Most important recent findings and how these findings motivate synthetic work Most pressing needs in terms of data synthesis and modeling Specific synthetic products for the benefit of LBA Urgently needed data in the DIS for synthetic studies

25 Physical Climate System Water and Energy Atmospheric Chemistry Carbon Storage and Exchange Biogeochemistry: Trace Gases and Nutrients Land Surface Hydrology and Water Chemistry Land use/land cover Human Dimensions 7 22(9) 5 32(8) 27(7)4(1)

LC LC/Biomass/Carbon LC 3, 5, 10 LULC Change LC 1, 2, 400, 401 LC Interactions with other biophysical factors LC 4, 7, 8, 14, 16, 21, 402 LC Modeling/ Scenarios LC 24 LC Interactions with human systems LC 9 LC Evaluations/ data products and methods LC 6, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23

LC - Most important recent findings and how these findings motivate synthetic work Accurate classification of Amazonian forests (including successional stages) and associated biomass estimation work help reduce uncertainty of carbon emission and sequestration estimates (Brondizio, Potter, Zarin...) Spectral mixture analysis and spatial-spectral classifiers have more accurately captured the heterogeneity of the Amazonian landscape mosaic (Lu, Roberts, Shimabukuro, Souza…) The regional trend towards forest clearing concentration and land use intensification leaves few opportunities for advanced secondary succession (Alves)

Brondizio, in press. In: Moran and Ostrom (Eds.). Cambridge, MIT Press.

LC - Most pressing needs in terms of data synthesis and modeling Regional Patterns: Mesoscale Integration Most Effective Processes: Quantitative Analyses Land degradation and land use intensification analyses including remote sensing models Plausible Scenarios: Including the Human System

LC - Specific synthetic products for the benefit of LBA Regional LULC products based on multisensor approaches Integration of biophysical data with social demands (Land Zoning?): science for the stakeholders Spatial distribution models for land use intensification, land/forest degradation, and vulnerability (including linkages with LBA components - BGC in particular – and with stakeholders demands)

LC - Urgently needed data in the DIS for synthetic studies Multitemporal Census Tract Data Direct Links to other databases (IBGE,, INPE, IPEA, SIPAM...)

HD HD-200 Policies/ LU alternatives HD-400 Climate/Hidrolog y LC/Malaria HD-402 Innovative technologies/ Family Agriculture HD-401 Synthesis

HD - Most important recent findings and how these findings motivate synthetic work (lessons learned) To understand LULC change, social and economic variables should be considered (i.e., time and type of settlement, land tenure regime, land price, household development cycles, cohort effects, among others (Alves, Batistella, Becker, Brondizio, Moran, Reis...) There are analytical and data gaps on Amazonian HD research

HD - Most pressing needs in terms of data synthesis and modeling Standardize household and other field-survey data Design models (and partnerships with stakeholders) allowing more proactive contributions for land-use related development issues More interaction with other LBA components (particularly: BGC x LC changes; PC x landscape patterns)

HD - Specific synthetic products for the benefit of LBA A publication like the IEA special issue with invited papers on: Institutions and governance Institutions and policy making in S&T Institutions and social structure Logistics, regional development and urbanization Production systems The agrarian question Population mobility and urbanization Land cover and use changes

HD - Urgently needed data in the DIS for synthetic studies Census tract (land-use and demographic) data

BGC - Most important recent findings and how these findings motivate synthetic work Conversion to intensive agriculture has the potential to alter the mesoscale N cycle in terms of both trace gases and stream chemistry Rates of secondary regrowth and long-term biomass accumulation are constrained mainly by slow mineralization of N and P from recalcitrant soil pools (are there other constraints that have been overlooked?)

Investigators: R. Victoria, L. Martinelli, M. McClain, D. Markewitz, E. Davidson, A. Krusche, R. Figueiredo, C. Neill, L. Deegan, C. Cerri, R. Cosme, M. Kramer, C. Potter, Others. Recent Findings (and some Conventional Wisdom): Conversion of forests to croplands increases stream export of nitrate, total dissolved N, and most other plant nutrients. Hypotheses to be Tested: Enrichment of stream nitrogen concentrations will be accelerated by the conversion of forest and pasture to soybean cultivation. Long-term DOC enrichment of streams may be reduced in catchments with more land-use change, due to fewer rainfall percolation pathways through the forest canopy and active A horizons of natural forest cover. Vegetation and soils along the riparian zones strongly influence nutrients entering streams from upland land uses. Carbon and Nutrient Export from Watersheds with Mixed Land Use

BGC - Most pressing needs in terms of data synthesis and modeling Reconcile regional and local soil databases More synthesis on mature or undisturbed forests to determine “baseline” conditions Synthesis and development of daily meteorological variables for use in BGC modeling

BGC - Specific synthetic products for the benefit of LBA Region-wide predictions of trace gas emissions related to intensive agriculture Comparative analysis of N export from forests, pastures, and crops, across major global forest biomes and climate seasons

BGC - Urgently needed data in the DIS for synthetic studies Mesoscale climate re-analysis products Tower meteorology to accompany tower flux data

Insights from the current work on LC, HD, and BGC The current work shows the importance of moving back and forth between basin-wide analysis and detailed case studies. Public policies based on basin-wide analysis alone could undermine important sustainable practices Understanding the behavior, the drivers, and the consequences of LULC change cannot be derived from land-cover analysis alone, but requires detailed human dimensions data analysis Investment in training and education are fundamental to establish long-term research in Amazonia Batistella & Moran, Acta Amazonica, forthcoming.

Other Insights LBA is a milestone in Amazonian multidisciplinary science But we still need to improve our interdisciplinary expertises (A. Nobre) Workshop on Interactive LBA Science, perhaps after or before the next SSC Meeting To expand this exercise to all teams within each LBA component

THANKS!