2. K S Rajan Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo IGBP-II LAND Research Program LAND SC-TT Member Scientific Officer, LUCC Focus 2 Office

3. Current Structure of IGBP

4. New Structure of IGBP (2003~ ) GCTE LUCC

5. New Joint Projects START

6. Objective of the LAND Project: To identify changes in the human- environment system and critical thresholds of vulnerability at local, regional and global scales of the system.

7. Fundamental Principles for LAND research First, integrating for Transition to sustainability ‘functionalities’ or characteristics of the Earth System feedbacks (processes which amplify or dampen aspects of the dynamics of the planetary life-support system), teleconnections (linkages between processes across space), switch and choke points on the earth’s surface (control points). Second, Integrative with other sciences, as possible Third, a fruitful platform of investigations - exploration of pathways (or trajectories) of land change

8. Major Concepts to consider Ecosystems as life-support systems Pathways of change (trajectory analysis) People and ecosystems at risk (vulnerability ) Methodological issues Coupled (socio-economic and biophysical) models Linked, geo-referenced and long-term databases of socio-economic and biophysical variables Comparative regional assessments:

9. THE LAND Project Land-Centric integrative research programme Guiding Questions of the Research Agenda are: 1. What are the dynamics and drivers of variability and change in human-environment systems? 2. How is the provision of environmental goods and services affected by changes in human-environment systems? 3. What are the characteristics and dynamics of vulnerability in human-environment systems?

10. Focal Research Themes Agents, Drivers And Processes Of Terrestrial Human Environmental Change Ecosystem Goods And Services Vulnerability Of Terrestrial Human Environment Systems To Global Change

11. Research Questions (1) How do economic growth, globalization, governance, and other socio-economic processes interact to drive changes in land use and the functioning of the land system? How does the changing spatial distribution of land use, urbanization, changing populations, and settlement patterns to drive changes in the land system, and in land-atmosphere, land-ocean exchanges? How do management of land systems and disturbances drive changes in the land system, and its interaction with the atmosphere and oceans?

12. Research Questions (2) How does the legacy of historical management and disturbance, drive changes in the land system, and its interactions with the atmosphere and oceans now and in the future? How do environmental changes and human activities drive changes in biodiversity and how do these effects feed forward to cause changes in ecosystem functioning and properties? How does the changing physical and chemical atmosphere interact with the land to drive changes in land systems, land-atmosphere and land ocean exchanges?

13. Focus on Integrated Research Activities: Agriculture impacts and feedbacks An integrative systems analysis Land scarcity and degradation Impacts of the inputs and flow MEGA-BASINS: How do biophysical and human- decision interactions control vulnerability of mega-basins? Water Resources – Availability, Development and Management Water-Food-Economic Production System Interactions Upstream-Downstream Links (Material Flows)

14. Example Intermediate activity: Changing disturbance regimes, societies and the planet Climate change: land surface interactions in increasingly human- dominated landscapes Changes in land use and the movement of gases, aerosols, solutes and sediments Historical land use and disturbance on carbon storage changes Settlement pattern affecting feedbacks to the atmosphere and water systems The factors contributing to the intensification of the N cycle and the implications on the feedbacks to human environment. Multiple stressors and the resilience and carbon storage capacity of land ecosystems

15. Example of Integrative Research activities: Amazonian Integrative Dynamics (LBA) Urban landscape dynamics Critical role of biodiversity on system feedbacks controlling system’s ability to provide goods and services? Changes in biodiversity distribution in increasingly human-dominated landscapes and consequences for the vulnerability of human-environment systems

16. Agricultural Land Use Modeling and Irrigation Demands

17. Spatial-EPIC Overall Framework Temperature Radiation Precipitation Tillage Layered Soil Pedon Percolation Runoff Sediment Chemicals -Dissolved -Adsorbed Wind Evapotransipration Physical Components of the Model

18. Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements Modelling for Crop Growth EPIC EPIC ModelEPIC ParametersSimulation IE Logit Model Land use pattern and irrigation water use Combination for Main Crops Estimate of planting and harvest date Sample data of Land use and choices RS, GPS and other Investigated data International market/trade model Data handling (Interpolating, analysis) Export of grid data Maps(Climate,Soil, Terrain) and socio-economic data (Population, income, …) GIS Creating of spatial database Flowchart of GIS-EPIC

19. Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements Potential multiple cropping system none Single Single R/R R/M R/W M/W Planting Date for Rice Crop 0 1 8 16 24 32 40 48 (week) Planting date for maize or soybean 0 1 8 16 24 32 40 48 (week) Planting date for wheat crop 0 1 8 16 24 32 40 48 (week) Crop System data ------ Estimated data Spatial Database

20. Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements Estimation of Land Productivity Rice Yields (T/HA) Maize Yields (T/HA)

21. Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 (T/HA) Soybean Yields Wheat Yields (T/HA) Estimation of Land Productivity

22. Using Crop Models and GIS to Study the Global Irrigation Water Requirements Comparing the wheat crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data T/HA Comparing the rice crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data T/HA Comparing the maize crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data T/HA Comparing the soybean crop yields simulated by EPIC with FAO statistic data T/HA Estimation of Land Productivity

23. Spatial-EPIC Results for India - Rice

24. Rice Yield Distribution in Bangladesh Jump

25. Impact of Climate Change Scenario over RICE Crop

27. Source: Fukui, 1993 An Example of the INTERACTIONS at the LOCAL Scale

28. Earth (Environment ) Resource System (Land/ Water, Ecosystem) Agricultural Land Use (Crop Choice) Urban Land Use Pastures/Grassland Other Land uses Farmer Land Owner Micro-sphere of Decision Making Market DynamicsCumulative Changes in Environment Changes in Life Style Macro-sphere of Decision Making Policy DirectionsMigrations Short term Long Term Water Supply

29. Environment / Resource System MICRO Sub-Models SPATIAL URBAN EXPANSION MODEL BIO-PHYSICAL CROP MODEL AGRO-ECONOMIC Sub-Model Behavioral Models Land User Land Use Conversion - within Agriculture Migration Agent Decision Sub-Model Model Structure of AGENT-LUC Population Price Supply Regulations National Scenario Crop Demand Estimation MACRO Sub-Model International Market

31. Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [1] Legend Income Map of Nan Province

32. Urban Centre No. of Households in Each Grid : 60 LU: Paddy(4); Maize(1,6,7,8); Paddy+Maize(rest) Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [2]

34. No. of Households in Each Grid : 83(1,2); 117(rest) LU: Paddy(all grid points) Examples of the Micro-Simulation Model Results [3]

35. Fixed Cost Variable Cost - Land Based - Yield Based

36. USGS Land cover map Web-DSS Project

37. Define discharge observation point Web-DSS Project

38. @irri.raw 0:other, 1:unirrigated 2: irrigated 3 outside Scenario-1 (no change) Scenario2 All agricultural lands change to irrigated lands. Scenario3 All lands change to irrigated lands. Web-DSS Project

39. Monthly discharge at point C Month Scenario1 Scenario2 Scenario3 x 10.000 m 3 Web-DSS Project

40. Monthly discharge at point A Month Scenario1 Scenario2 Scenario3 x 10.000 m 3 Web-DSS Project

41. Sponsored by START Will cover 3 Sub-regions South Asia South East Asia East Asia MAIRS - Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies

42. Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies 1.Emissions/Energy/industrial transformations – 2.Climate-related Disasters and Hazards – floods, droughts, storms, fires, GLOFs 3.Water (fresh and salt), catchments and coasts 4.Food, Fiber 5.Human health 6.Biodiversity and ecosystem change + Ecosystem services Cross-Cutting Themes : Land Use; Monsoon climate system Resilience; Adaptive capacity; Ecosystem services

43. Water-Food Theme 1.How will changes in land-use and cover, atmospheric emissions, and ocean productivity in the Asian Monsoon region interact with the global hydrological cycle? 2.What will be the consequences of changes in land- use, and modification of rivers for ground water, riverine, coastal and marine environments? 3.Will these changes amplify vulnerability to (the natural and man-made disasters like) floods and droughts –Food Production Systems

44. Vulnerability Theme How will changes in the AM, especially the frequency and intensity of extreme event challenges human responses? How do rapid economic and social changes influence vulnerability to hazards? How many changes in frequency/severity of biological invasions, pests, weeds and diseases affect human well-being? How can human-decision making be improved to reduce disasters under both current and future environmental conditions?

45. Thank You !!