Use of Weather and Climate information in Climate risk management Example of ACMAD-IFRCC collaboration ACMAD by Léon Guy RAZAFINDRAKOTO Chief of Weather Watch and Prediction Dept

Introduction The rainy seasons in West and Central Africa has become more variable and increasingly changing, floods and dry spells become more frequent and increasingly severe. Given the increased vulnerability of communities to damage caused by floods and flood-related diseases from unhealthy water, food scarcity related to drought … The impacts of climate change and variability in the sub-region is simply a disaster The intent of ACMAD-IFRCC collaboration is to produce tools for Climate Risk Management to reduce impact from disasters.

Increase of reported natural disasters is weather related

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Intensity Frequency Heatwaves Heavy rainfall / Flood Tropical Cyclones Coastal Marine Hazards Strong Wind Water Resource Management Health Industry Food security Transport Energy Urban areas Disasters severity Is increasing Exposure is increasing !

Climate Variability and Consequences on communities Disruption of agriculture calendar –> when to plant? when to harvest? More severity of disaster AND more vulnerability of community, Flood (as drought) causes food scarcity, Population movement: new migratory routes, prolonged stay, conflicts…migration and urbanisation Less knowledge and coping capacity to understand and to face new or unusual ways on how hazards impact community and-or their environment

Tools for Climate Risk Management, All time scales are concerned Long range forecast ACMADIFRCC Long term DRR strategy Seasonal and medium range forecast Disaster risk management and vulnerability reduction Short range forecast Early warning / Early action (for lifesaving and vulnerability reduction)

Forecast transformed into actions Rainfall seasonal forecast by ACMAD ACMAD provides seasonal forecast in the form of probabilistic terciles for expected above normal, normal, and below normal rainfall amounts for the season.

Transform seasonal forecast into IFRCC actions => Revisit contingency plans Identify areas at risk Food market analysis Identify appropriate staff (for drought- flood) and partners Replenish stocks Inform communities about enhanced risk and what to do if the risk materializes. Disaster risk management and vulnerability reduction

- Rainfall tend to be normal to above normal - Cooling trend (La Nina) condition persists during the period - Heavy rainfall during the season (Sahel), - Possibly floods over some areas, - Rainfall peak is in August over the Sahel but due to delay, likely to prolong to September. - Conditions to move south after September. Monthly update, and dekadal forecast from ACMAD

Transform monthly update and dekadal forecast into IFRCC actions Alert volunteers and communities Follow up areas at risk Meet with other response agencies to enable better coordination, Closely monitor rainfall forecasts. Sensitise population and put in place community based join decision making process (EWS)

Short range flood risk bulletin from ACMAD Flood risk for the next 72 hours In three categories: low, medium, and high risk

Transform short-range forecast into IFRCC action Mobilize volunteers Prepare evacuation Get warning and instruction out to communities at risk

ACMAD and IFRCC interaction for the provision of specific information Disaster risk reduction Evolution of the bulletin Weather Climat Info Weather Climat Info ACMAD IFRCC Demand of information And give Feed back Information are need to be on time, understood and trusted

Evolution of the short range flood risk bulletin After IFRCCs recommandation, one text page moved to a graphical form, easier to read,

Evolution of the short range flood risk bulletin After the first season (2009), we are trying to give information at district level to assist IFRCC in making decisions on where action is needed. Transmit climate information more frequently(each 2 days) and timely, to give IFRCC as much lead time as possible.

Problems encountered during the flood risk provision Rainfall data (climatology, observation, forecast) in itself is insufficient for the flood prediction. Insufficient data of flood-prone areas at district scale over West and Central Africa. The resolution of numerical model (0.5°x0.5°) that we are using does not allow us to give precision at district level, as it is requested by IFRCC.

Prospect of improvement: taking into account the experience of the last seasons and the recommendation expressed by IFRCC: Include hazard thresholds based on the experiences wich will facilitate decision making in case of urgency, Use of fine mesh regional model ( km resolution) Use of hydrological and finer topographic data to identify flood-prone areas at district level. Need of GIS software training.