1. Asish Sen Director Meteorological Centre, Patna
SOUTH-WEST MONSOON : 2016
Asish Sen
Director
Meteorological Centre, Patna

2. Southwest Monsoon Rainfall in Bihar (2002-2015)x

3. MONSOON FORECAST : 2016 (Whole Country)
HIGHLIGHTS
Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% (with a model error of ±4%)
Region wise, seasonal rainfall:-
108% of LPA over North-West India,
113% of LPA over Central India,
113% of LPA over South Peninsula
94% of LPA over North-East India
(with a model error of ± 8 %).
The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be
107% during July and 104% during August
( with a model error of ± 9 %.)

4. Region wise Probabilistic Monsoon Forecast 2016
NW India
Central
South
Northeast
India
Peninsula
Rainfall
Category
Range
(% of LPA)
Below
<92
<94
<93
<95
Normal
92-108
94-106
93-107
95-105
Above
>108
>106
>107
>105

5. State wise Monsoon Rainfall Forecast : 2016

6. PROGRESS OF SW MONSOON 2016

7. DISTRICTWISE SEASONAL TOTAL RAINFALL (01- 21 JUNE 2016)
DISTRICTS
ACTUAL
NORMAL
DEP MM %
ARARIA
134.9
182.8
-26
ARWAL
35.8
58.8
-39
AURANGABAD
50.4
64.2
-21
BANKA
192.2
86.7
122
BEGUSARAI
92.2
-61
BHABUA 33 61
-46
BHAGALPUR
42.8
122.1
-65
BHOJPUR
18.4
58.6
-69
BUXAR
96.5
62.7 54
DARBHANGA
49.7
94.3
-47
EAST CHAMPARAN
73.5
99.6
GAYA
36.6
60.5
-40
GOPALGANJ
63.5
96.8
-34
JAHANABAD
32.3
65.2
-50
JAMUI
25.7
84.3
-70
KATIHAR 37
131.9
-72
KHAGARIA
17.1
110.9
-85
KISHANGANJ
205.2
238.6
-14
LAKHISARAI
29.2
100.5
-71
MADHEPURA
83.6
138.4
MADHUBANI
123
115.6 6
MONGHYR
0.4
-99
MUZAFFARPUR
65.9
94.7
-30
NALANDA
27.9
63.3
-56
NAWADA
8.1
70.1
-88
PATNA
19.3
69.4
PURNEA
79.1
161
-51
ROHTAS
28.6
-23
SAHARSA
47.5
147.7
-68
SAMASTIPUR 42
99.8
-58
SARAN
21.3
73.8
SHEIKHPURA
69.8
74.7 -7
SHEOHAR
13.8
-89
SITAMARHI
57.5
-53
SIWAN
28.7
72.5
-60
SUPAUL
122.4
140
-13
VAISHALI
37.3
80.4
-54
WEST CHAMPARAN
101.4
142.3
-29
BIHAR
60.8
99.4

8. Seasonal Total Rainfall (1st to 21st June)

9. Mean Rainfall Forecast for Last Week of June

10. Mean Rainfall Forecast for First Week of July

11. Mean Rainfall Forecast for Second Week of July

12. Flood Risk Zones in India

13. Flood Risk Zones in Bihar

14. Disaster Preparedness
Knowledge and Preparation
are the keys to survival
in the event of a catastrophe

15. Early Warning Systems: A Tool for Mitigation and Coordination
Monitoring of precursors
to natural events.
Conceptual framework concerning Early Warning. NO
Forecasting: Will there be an event?
Early Warning Systems (EWS) operate on a very simple operational framework.
Precursors to events are monitored on a continuous basis. Data is analyzed to generate a forecast.
If there is a forecast of a large event, a warning is issued.
In the modern framework of EW the emergency committees will begin actions as proposed in the emergency plans.
YES
Issue a Warning or an Alert.
Initiate actions according to emergency plans

16. Different Forecasts and Warning Systems of IMD
Long Range Monsoon Forecast
Regular Weather Bulletin
City Weather Forecast
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for River Basins
Cyclone Alert and Warning System
Short Range Heavy Rainfall Warning
Heat and Cold Wave Warning
Fog Warning
Radar Based Now-cast for Thunder Squall

17. Cyclone Alert and Warning System of IMD
Monitoring for Precursor a
Weather Satellite Data and Imageries
Weather Radar
Observations
Surface and Upper Air Data ON
Will there be Alert/warning ?
Weather Analysis and
Numerical Modelling
YES
Issue of Alert/Warning
Forecast Track and Intensity of Cyclone

18. Flood Warning System of IMD and CWC
IMD CWC
River Guage Network Data
Nation-wide Surface Observatory
Network
Meteorological Satellite Observation
Weather Radar Network
Hydrological Modelling
Numerical Modelling
River Basin wise Quantitative Rainfall Forecast
Flood Forecast

19. Weather Alert/Warning Dissemination
NDMA
Airports
Sea Ports
Weather Forecast Centre (IMD)
State Disaster Managers
Satellite based Warning Dissemination System
Radio/TV/Press

20. Annual +1.41 +0.02* * -0.01 Season Mean Max Temp Trends in o C/ year
SEASONAL CLIMATE CHANGE TRENDS OF BIHAR
Season
Mean Max Temp Trends
in o C/ year
Mean Min Temp Trends
Mean Temp Trends
Mean Diurnal Temp Range Trends
Rainfall trends
In mm /year
Winter
-0.01* *
+0.02*
No trend
-0.02
-0.06
Summer
-0.02*
+0.01*
-0.04*
+0.59*
Monsoon
-0.03*
+1.11
Post monsoon
+0.01
+0.11
Annual
+0.02* *
-0.01
+1.41

21. Thank You