Top Heavy Load: Trouble Ahead for Social Security Systems Peter Diamond.

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Presentation transcript:

Top Heavy Load: Trouble Ahead for Social Security Systems Peter Diamond

Source: Mitchell, Brian R International Historical Statistics: The Americas, , 4th ed. New York: Stockton Press. Mitchell, Brian R International Historical Statistics: Europe, New York: Stockton Press. Crude Birth Rates

Survival Curves A= Stone Age B&C = Greece and Rome D =1800 England E =1900 US F =1941 US G =1961 US H =1998 US Source: Foundation for Infinite Survival, Inc. Berkeley CA, historical slide no. 6.

Source: For the US, Berkeley Mortality Database. For other countries, Human Mortality Database. Remaining Life Expectancy at 21 (Men and Women)

Source: For the US, Berkeley Mortality Database. For other countries, Human Mortality Database. Remaining Life Expectancy at 65 (Men and Women)

Source: Historical data obtained from United States Census Demographic Trends in the 20th Century. Census 2000 Special Reports for the US and the Human Mortality Database for all other countries. Projections obtained from United Nations Population Information Network (Intermediate Variant). Old-Age Dependency Ratio

Labor Force Participation Rates of Men (aged 65 and over) for the United States, Britain, France, and Germany from 1850 to 1990 Source: The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History, 1880 to 1990, Dora L. Costa, University of Chicago Press, 1998, pg 9.

Increasing Life Expectancy and Benefit Adjustment Initial benefits –Adjust benefits –Adjust benefits and taxes –Indexed or legislated Increase in benefits for a delayed start –Indexed or legislated Early entitlement age

Benefit adjustments Sweden –Quasi-actuarial indexed adjustment of benefits –Notional interest rate adjusted for financial balance Germany –Point value adjusted for system dependency ratio US –Legislated increase in “age for full benefits” in response to 75-year measure of “actuarial balance”

Average Unemployment Rate for Males (1991 to 2000) vs. Log of Tax Force Average of Unemployment Rate for Males (1991 to 2000) R 2 = Log of Tax Force (ER to 69)

Funding Pensions

Sources of Medicare Cost Growth Since 1970 Percent of Gross Domestic Product

Projected Change in Health Expenditure as a Percent of GDP (Change from 2004 to 2030) Source: Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission "The Impact of Ageing on Public Expenditure: Projections for the EU25 Member States on Pensions, Health Care, Long-Term Care, Education and Unemployment Transfers ( )." Tables 7-1 and 7-10.

Source: Mitchell, Brian R International Historical Statistics: Europe, , 4 th ed. New York: Stockton Press (for 1901 and 1951). International Database, US Census Bureau (for others). Age Pyramids, Italy ( ) Male Female

Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2004 Changes in Life Expectancy in Select African Countries from 1960 to 2002