1 5 th EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, 30 June – 1 July 2011, Copenhagen Progress on EEA 2012 indicator-based report on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Europe Hans-Martin Füssel and André Jol (Vulnerability and adaptation group)

Impacts of Europes changing climate (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008) Atmosphere and climate Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice) Marine biodiversity and ecosystems Water quantity Freshwater quality and biodiversity Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Soil Agriculture and forestry Human health Vulnerability and economic aspects (sectors)

SOER 2010 (Nov 2010): thematic assessments on understanding climate change, adapting to climate change Thematic assessments Understanding climate change Air pollution Biodiversity Water resources: quantity & flows Soil Freshwater quality Consumption and environment Material resources and waste Land use Mitigating climate change Adapting to climate change Marine and coastal environment Assessment of global megatrends Political megatrends Country assessments Urban environment Environmental megatrends Each EEA member country (32) and EEA cooperating country (6) assessed all six environmental themes above. Climate change mitigation Nature protection & biodiversity National and regional stories Freshwater Air pollution Land use Country profiles Common environmental themes Waste Economic megatrends Technological megatrends Social megatrends Soil Land use Marine and coastal environment Soil Land use

Europes key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended for CC IVA 2012 report

5 Objectives of CC IVA 2012 report Present past and projected climate change and impacts through indicators Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions Present summary of adaptation actions across Europe Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and scenarios at appropriate scale, and for sharing of information

6 Related EEA reports in 2012 Cities and vulnerability/adaptation (early 2012) Freshwater (2012) Coastal (2012) Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (2012)

7 IPCC 5 th Assessment Report, WGII, chapter on Europe: expert review June/July 2012 publication March 2014 AMAP SWIPA report (Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic), launched in May 2011 UNEP: Climate Change Science Compendium, update of 2009 version, in 2011/2012? PRO-VIA: Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation, started 2011 FAO, 2011: Climate change, water and food security WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate and Global Framework for Climate Services NOAA annual report on State of Climate Reports by other organisations

EEA Core set of indicators (CSI) European Commission (incl Eurostat): Europe 2020 indicators; resource efficient Europe by 2020 (being developed) Structural Indicators (SI) Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI) Annual Environment Policy Review EEA thematic: SEBI2010 (biodiversity), freshwater, marine EEA/Eurostat sectoral: energy, transport, agriculture EEA/Eurostat Environmental Accounts (linked to UN) Streamlining of indicators: clearinghouse EEA/Eurostat/JRC in 2011/2012 Other indicator sets

9 0. Summary 1. Introduction 2. EU Adaptation Policy 2.1. Sectoral policy frameworks 2.2. International dimension 3. Socio-economic scenarios for Europe 4. State of the climate system 4.1. Climate and atmosphere 4.2. Cryosphere 4.3. Sea level rise 5. Impacts of climate change and associated social, economic, and ecological risks 5.1. Freshwater quantity and quality 5.2. Marine environment 5.3. Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity and soil 5.4. Agriculture 5.5. Forestry 5.6. Fisheries 5.7. Energy, transport, and tourism 5.8. Human health 5.9. Coastal areas Cities and urban areas 6. Economic consequences 6.1. Damage costs 6.2. Cost of adaptation 7. National and sub-national adaptation actions 7.1. National adaptation strategies and plans 7.2. Adaptation actions at regional and city levels 8. Data gaps, uncertainties and future needs Draft scope of the report, main structure

10 Data and information sources Essential Climate Variables (WMO Global Climate Observing System) GMES services land, marine, atmosphere, climate (reanalysis) Many EU research projects and national information

JRC, PESETA I (2009); PESETA II (2011/2012) ESPON Climate (mid 2011) DG REGIO (2009; 2010) DG ENV ClimWatAdapt (2011) DG SANCO CEHAPIS (2011) EU research projects (Clearinghouse on Adaptation) Main climate change vulnerability/risk indicators in Europe

12 EEA project management with ETCs, WHO, ECDC Responsibilities for indicator (groups) divided between EEA, ETCs, WHO, ECDC Lead(s) for each indicator group and final report chapter will organise author(s) and other expert/scientific input External advisory group (Commission, EEA Scientific Committee, international organisations, EEA/WHO/ECDC/JRC) Eionet Forum Interest Group: Country and other review will be organised by EEA Publication (editing, layouting etc.) as EEA report EEA writing guidance and guidance on figures/maps EEA indicator management system (for final product, 2012) Organisation CC IVA 2012 report

13 Criteria for selection of indicators in report 2008 report: some criteria were used, draft technical paper 2012 report: evaluation/selection more transparent and documented, learning also from SEBI ETC CCA Technical paper (April – Sep 2011) Related but somewhat different criteria for observed and projected indicators Main groups of criteria for selection: Relevance for policy (targets) Causal links to climate change Methodological/data quality and data accessibility Robustness and/or known uncertainty Acceptance and intelligibility

Experts have compiled information on available data and projections for about 60 potential indicators Draft evaluation based on the criteria is available for most indicators using a scale from 1 (=low) to 5 (=high) Harmonisation to be done (by EEA and ETC-CCA) Total amount of indicators expected to be no less than in 2008 report (about 40) 14 Current status of ETC CCA technical paper on indicator evaluation

15 Improving communication of uncertainty in the CC IVA report 1.Is there need for improving assessment and communication of uncertainties in the 2012 report? 2.Which options exist for improving uncertainty assessment and communication? 3.(How) can the calibrated uncertainty language from the IPCC AR5 guidance be applied? Which uncertainty scales (quantitative / qualitative)? For which types of indicators and key messages (observation / trend / attribution / projection)?

16 Typology of key messages ObservationProjection O.1: Climate observation O.2: Climate trend O.3. Detection of impacts O.4. Attribution of impacts P.1: Climate change P.2: Climate impacts P.3: Adaptation needs

17 Examples (key messages from 2008 report): 1.Single (approximate) value Since 1850, glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately two thirds of their volume. 2.Range The annual average temperature [in Europe] is projected to rise this century by °C (best estimate). 3.Semi-quantitative Climate models indicate a slight increase in the number of storms and an increase of the strength of the heaviest storms. 4.Direction (of change) The vast majority of glaciers in Europe [...] are in retreat 5.Existence (of effect) The changing range of host species has major implications for range expansions of species... Different levels of quantification

18 Draft conclusions on uncertainty 1.Assessment and communication of uncertainties can and should be improved in the 2012 report 2.The best approach depends on the type of indicator and/or statement 3.The level of quantification should be carefully chosen based on the available evidence 4.The calibrated language for communicating the level of evidence and agreement from the IPCC AR5 guidance can be applied to selected key messages of the 2012 report

19 Outline and structure of the report Indicator selection process Addressing and communicating uncertainty Considerable interest in the report Broad support for the overall approach Many relevant suggestions regarding structure and content Discussion at first Advisory Group meeting (15 June 2011)

20 Indicative time schedule PeriodActivity Feb 2011Preliminary EEA-ETC meeting/discussions Feb –March 2011First draft outline of report and work plan April-May 2011 Draft ETC CCA Technical paper on evaluation of climate change state, impact and vulnerability indicators 14/15 April st full authors meeting (discussion on scope, objectives, content, contributions by partners) 15 June st Advisory Group meeting 30 June – 1 July Discussion at EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation 1 Sep 2011Updated work plan and ETC CCA technical paper September 2011 (?)2 nd full authors meeting 1 Nov 2011First draft indicator chapters 8 Nov nd Advisory Group meeting Feb 2012Second draft chapters April rd Advisory Group meeting May 2012Final draft chapters and full report June-July 2012:External EIONET and other review August-Sep 2012Inclusion of comments October 2012Final editing, layouting November 2012Publication and launch

Additional slides

Evaluation criterionYes/No Indicative ranking 1-5 Policy relevanceRelevant for areas of EU policies and actions No1 Link to existing or emerging policy targets No1 Relevance forCausal link to climate change Yes4 climate changeSensitivity towards change Yes4 Spatial coverage and resolution Yes2 Length of time series and temp. resolution Yes1 Methodological Transparent methodology Yes4 validity and Valid model base Yes4 data accessibility Data availability and regular updating Yes4 RobustnessUncertainty assessment Yes4 Broad Intelligibility Yes5 acceptabilityParticipatory development Yes5 Example (1): storms and storm surges

Evaluation criterionYes/No Indicative ranking 1-5 Policy relevance Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions 3 Link to existing or emerging policy targets 5 Relevance forCausal link to climate change 5 climate changeSensitivity towards change 2 (slow) Spatial coverage and resolution 5 (global significance) Length of time series and temp. resolution 5 (long reconstruction) 2: only indicative projections Methodological Transparent methodology 5 (detailed documentation) validity and Valid model base 2 (Projection uncertainties) data accessibility Data availability and regular updating 4 RobustnessUncertainty assessment 4 Broad Intelligibility 5 acceptabilityParticipatory development 1 Example (2): Greenland ice sheet

Evaluation criterionYes/No Indicative ranking 1-5 Policy relevance Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions Link to existing or emerging policy targets Y4 Relevance forCausal link to climate change 4 climate changeSensitivity towards change Spatial coverage and resolution Y Length of time series and temp. resolution Methodological Transparent methodology Y4 validity and Valid model base data accessibility Data availability and regular updating RobustnessUncertainty assessment Y4 Broad Intelligibility Y5 acceptabilityParticipatory development Example (3): Distribution of plant species

Evaluation criterionYes/No Indicative ranking 1-5 Policy relevance Relevant for areas of EU policies and actions 4 Link to existing or emerging policy targets 4 Relevance forCausal link to climate change 2 climate changeSensitivity towards change 2 Spatial coverage and resolution 5 Length of time series and temp. resolution 3 Methodological Transparent methodology 3 validity and Valid model base (current economics)1 data accessibility Data availability and regular updating 2 RobustnessUncertainty assessment 1 Broad Intelligibility (visually attractive)2 acceptabilityParticipatory development 3 Example (4): ESPON-Aggregate potential economic impact of climate change

Climate and Atmosphere CodeIndicator Obser ved data Projec ted data Descri ption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CSI012 Global and European mean temperature xxoSplit CSI012 indicator(s) for consistency with precipitation (where mean and extremes are handled by different indicators) CSI012 Temperature extremesxxo CLIM002 Mean precipitationxxo CLIM004 Precipitation extremesx?o CLIM005 Storms and storm surgesxxoxMove part on storm surges to "Coastal areas"? CLIM006 Air pollution by ozonexMove to "Human health" or to "Cities and urban areas"? NEW Air pollution and climate?xoWorking title; move to "Human health"?; combine with CLIM006? CSI013 Green house gas concentrations xxDrop from this report?

Cryosphere CodeIndicator Obser ved data Proje cted data Descr iption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM007Glaciersx?o CLIM008Snow coverxxox CLIM009Greenland ice sheetx?xxTentative projections exist (Text to be checked by Copenhagen Univ) CLIM10Sea icexxxoSpatial coverage expanded to include Baltic Sea CLIM011Mountain permafrostxoConsider including northen permafrost (palsa mires) CLIM020Lake and river ice coverxxxMove to "Freshwater"?

Freshwater CodeIndicator Obse rved data Proje cted data Descr iption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM016 River flowxxxo CLIM017 River floodsxxxo CLIM018 River flow droughtsxxxo CLIM019 Water temperaturexxo CLIM021 Freshwater biodiversity and water qualityxxo CLIM029 Soil moisturexo NEW Water exploitation indexxxx Rename to "Water stress" or "Water scarcity"? NEW Public water supply and drinking water managementxxo Indicators to be merged? NEW Water demand (households and tourism)xxx

Coastal areas & Marine environment and fisheries CodeIndicator Obser ved data Proje cted data Descr iption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM012 Sea level risexxxx CLIM041 People floodedxo NEW Saltwater intrusionxPotential indicator to be defined; currently just a placeholder CLIM013 Sea surface temperaturexxx CLIM014 Marine phenologyxo CLIM015 Northward movement of marine species xoRename to "Distribution of marine species" (to improve consistency with CLIM022 and CLIM024)? NEW Ocean acidificationxx

Terrestrial ecosystems, biodiversity, and soil CodeIndicator Obser ved data Proje cted data Descr iption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM022 Distribution of plant speciesxxxx CLIM023 Plant phenologyxxox CLIM024 Distribution of animal speciesxxx CLIM025 Animal phenologyxxox CLIM026 Species ecosystem relationshipxoTo be reconsidered CLIM027 Soil organic carbonxxxTo be reconsidered CLIM028 Soil erosion by waterxox NEW European Butterfly Climate Change Indicator (EBCCI) xo NEW Conservation status of species and habitats xxxAppears more relevant for chapter on adaptation policy NEW Arctic species trend indexxxx NEW Alien species and climate changeooSuggested by Wolfgang Rabitsch (UBA-AT) NEW Plant productivityxPotential indicator to be defined; currently just a placeholder

Agriculture and forestry CodeIndicator Obser ved data Projec ted data Descri ption sheet Evalua tion sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM030 Growing season for agricultural cropsxo CLIM031 Agrophenologyxo CLIM032 Crop-yield variabilityxxo CLIM033 Water requirement / Meteorological water balance xo CLIM034 Forest growthxxxx CLIM035 Forest fire dangerxxxx

Energy, transport and tourism, and Cities and urban areas CodeIndicator Obser ved data Proje cted data Descr iption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) NEWModelled conditions for summer tourism in Europe xo NEWPotential economic impact of climate change ?xxxBased on ESPON Climate; should be moved to different/new section if it will be included NEWEnergy??Potential indicator to be defined; currently just a placeholder NEWUrban heat wavesxxox NEWUrban air qualityx?xxCombine with CLIM006 and/or suggested indicator "'Air pollution and climate change"? NEWUrban floodsxxxx NEWPotential aggregate impact of climate change ?xoxBased on ESPON Climate; should be moved to different/new section if it will be included NEWPotential physical impact of climate change ?xox

Human health CodeIndicator Obser ved data Projec ted data Descri ption sheet Evalu ation sheet Comment (x - available; o - partly available; - not available; ? - not clear) CLIM036 Heat and healthx?o NEW Extreme weather events: excess heatxoxReplace or combine with CLIM036? CLIM037 Vector-borne diseasesxxxx CLIM038 Water- and food borne diseasesxxx NEW National health adaptation assessment xoxSuggested for consideration by Jonathan Suk (ECDC) but possibly more relevant for chapter on adaptation actions