S&T foresight and government decision-making in the European Research Area Brussels, 21 November 2001 Introduction Rémi Barré OST Associate Professor, CNAM

S&T foresight activities are instruments for public decision making in the area of S&T policy : addressing questions related to the science – society relationships addressing questions related to the science – society relationships are developing at an unprecedented pace in most EU member states and elsewhere are developing at an unprecedented pace in most EU member states and elsewhere have a high potential as open-co-ordination instruments have a high potential as open-co-ordination instruments Hence the importance to understand, clarify and assess their role in public decision-making processes.

The objective is to propose an interpretative framework of such foresight activities : 1. what is meant by foresight 1. what is meant by foresight 2. the major drivers considered foresight exercise 2. the major drivers considered foresight exercise 3. a typology of foresights 3. a typology of foresights 4. acknowledged risks and limitations 4. acknowledged risks and limitations 5. open questions 5. open questions 6. challenges for foresight as goverrnment decision- making processes in the ERA 6. challenges for foresight as goverrnment decision- making processes in the ERA

1. What is meant by foresight Foresight is here definied as a potential new policy instrument, relevant to relate : - the S&T change and innovation problematique, - the S&T change and innovation problematique, - its economic, social, environmental, territorial and geo-political dimensions, - its economic, social, environmental, territorial and geo-political dimensions, - the deepening of democracy in the context of a knowledge society. - the deepening of democracy in the context of a knowledge society.

Linkage with government decision-making Such processes contribute to co-ordinating the anticipations of the institutions thus enhancing their strategic capabilities. Such processes contribute to co-ordinating the anticipations of the institutions thus enhancing their strategic capabilities. The aim of such processes is to distribute strategic intelligence of the S&T dynamics in relation to society to the actors themselves. The aim of such processes is to distribute strategic intelligence of the S&T dynamics in relation to society to the actors themselves. S&T foresight as collective learning process to support strategic decision-making S&T foresight as collective learning process to support strategic decision-making

2. the major drivers considered S&T change and the new forms of knowledge production and circulation S&T change and the new forms of knowledge production and circulation social and economic change (societal foresights) social and economic change (societal foresights) changes in professional, cultural and ethical norms changes in professional, cultural and ethical norms news forms of organisation (learning organis.), news forms of organisation (learning organis.), regional innovation systems and clusters, regional innovation systems and clusters, geopolitical change, the governance of the global systems and international relations geopolitical change, the governance of the global systems and international relations

3. A typology of foresights Axis 1 : the extensiveness of the foresight activity Axis 1 : the extensiveness of the foresight activity the number and variety of persons or the experts involved. Extensiveness class IIIIII Label classical S&Tstudy collective process societal process

Axis 2 : the intensiveness of the foresight activity quality (completeness) of the learning cycles involved in each of the four phases substance of the activities taking place, substance of the activities taking place, what is produced, how, by which methods, what is produced, how, by which methods, what impacts on the participants. what impacts on the participants. Intensiveness class IIIIII Label opinion exchanges; occasional knowledge production ad-hoc knowledge production; collective learning intensive, systematic Collective knowledge production

Intensiveness strategic analytic strategic analytic scenario scenario building buildingindustrialtechnology orientedfocussed societal the typology : the groups of foresights extensiveness macro-societal societal

macro societal foresights group high extensiveness ; low intensiveness Macro-Societal foresight is rooted in the tradition of public participation Macro-Societal foresight is rooted in the tradition of public participation The central focus is on who participates and the objectives are the creation of new networks and circulation of information The central focus is on who participates and the objectives are the creation of new networks and circulation of information such widely spread exercises may end up in rather loose exchange of opinions among participants such widely spread exercises may end up in rather loose exchange of opinions among participants

focussed-societal group medium position on both axes Like macro-societal foresight exercises, they involve a wide constituency of stakeholders. Like macro-societal foresight exercises, they involve a wide constituency of stakeholders. But they are more focused at sectoral level, which may give them the advantages of a broad approach, but without the difficulties of size But they are more focused at sectoral level, which may give them the advantages of a broad approach, but without the difficulties of size They are becoming the standard procedure for policy making in some countries They are becoming the standard procedure for policy making in some countries

strategic scenario building group low on extensiveness, high on intensiveness important knowledge production activity, leading to a data and modelling challenge. important knowledge production activity, leading to a data and modelling challenge. involve few people directly, having interactions only with a limited number of experts and, at best, some representatives of selected social groups. involve few people directly, having interactions only with a limited number of experts and, at best, some representatives of selected social groups. Each stage involves some sort of qualitative or quantitative modelling. Each stage involves some sort of qualitative or quantitative modelling. The central focus is the internal coherence and plausibility quality of the scenarios The central focus is the internal coherence and plausibility quality of the scenarios

industrial technology oriented group rather low on extensiveness, medium to medium high on intensivemess more classical view of foresight : S&T aspects are seen quite independently from societal aspects. more classical view of foresight : S&T aspects are seen quite independently from societal aspects. they are quite analytic and focused, which can bring very valuable information for technology programme setting, they are quite analytic and focused, which can bring very valuable information for technology programme setting, they are typical of industrially oriented technology promotion foresights they are typical of industrially oriented technology promotion foresights

4.Acknowledged risks and limitations too great a role for users, thus shifting objectives to short term, too great a role for users, thus shifting objectives to short term, when all opinions are legitimate, the risks of inconsistency and factual errors are high, when all opinions are legitimate, the risks of inconsistency and factual errors are high, If foresight is just for anyone to present the pieces on the table for whoever wants to use them, what is the real value added ? If foresight is just for anyone to present the pieces on the table for whoever wants to use them, what is the real value added ? Dont societal foresight put at risk the normal channels of the political decision- making, de-legitimising the political arena ? Dont societal foresight put at risk the normal channels of the political decision- making, de-legitimising the political arena ?

5. Open questions the nature and form of the deliverables and outputs of the project as a whole, the nature and form of the deliverables and outputs of the project as a whole, the nomination and exact role of the steering committee, as well as its distance from political authorities, the nomination and exact role of the steering committee, as well as its distance from political authorities, the nomination procedure for the panel members, given the socio-political nature of the whole process, the nomination procedure for the panel members, given the socio-political nature of the whole process, the method and status of the integration of the divergent views within panels, and the different pieces brought by the different panels. the method and status of the integration of the divergent views within panels, and the different pieces brought by the different panels.

6. Challenges for foresight as government decision-making processes in the ERA the handling of the political dimensions of societally oriented foresights ; questions of diversity, legitimacy, openness, the handling of the political dimensions of societally oriented foresights ; questions of diversity, legitimacy, openness, the sensitiveness to different cultures in the respective disciplinary fields and/or countries, to different rationales among the key actors the sensitiveness to different cultures in the respective disciplinary fields and/or countries, to different rationales among the key actors the design and implementation of really interactive processes the design and implementation of really interactive processes the evaluation of foresights ; validity, credibility, quality assurance, criteria, ethical norms, the evaluation of foresights ; validity, credibility, quality assurance, criteria, ethical norms,

the infrastructures needed for access to background studies and previous results the infrastructures needed for access to background studies and previous results infrastructures and mechanims for capitalisation of results, methodologies and experiences, infrastructures and mechanims for capitalisation of results, methodologies and experiences, networking and coordination mechanisms allowing for decentralised, yet coherent and self-reinforcing foresight activities in the member states. networking and coordination mechanisms allowing for decentralised, yet coherent and self-reinforcing foresight activities in the member states.