1. Strategy Processes and Foresight in Research
Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th – 29th September 2006
Strategy Processes and Foresight in Research
Councils and National Research Programmes
Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup
Risoe National Laboratory

2. Background
National research and innovation councils, national research programmes and similar entities are important users of foresight.
Research councils and national research programmes are a dynamical part of national science systems compared to basic funding for universities and other research institutions.
Research councils and research programmes are mediating arenas between science and politics.
Arenas for coordination and formulation of commons view between scientists and institutions
Launching research programmes in itself is priority-setting.

3. On research councils and programmes

4. Focus of the paper Traditional focus: This paper’s focus:
analysing difficulties in implementing foresight results within research councils’ and research programmes
This paper’s focus:
Analysing strategy processes in research councils and national research programmes:
What do they do when they do strategy?
How do they understand strategy?
Analytical dimensions (inspired by the call for this seminar):
Rationales and drivers for strategy processes
Actors involved
Methods and approaches
Understandings of strategy

5. The study
Based the project “Strategies and identity of science - a study of strategy processes in national research programmes”
Funded by the Danish Social Science Research Council
Carried out in
Two cases were analysed: the strategy processes of
The Danish Technical Research Council, Strategy plan for , carried out in
The Danish Energy Research Programme, new strategy carried out in
Changes in the Danish Research System affecting the study
2002: 2/3 cut in energy research following the change of government in 2001
2005: Restructuring of the research council system

6. Rationales
Rationales for strategy and foresight in science and technology
Underpinned by the evolutionary perspective (or school) within economics – national, regional, sectorial innovation systems
(neo-classical economists tend to disfavour governmental interference in priority setting, etc.)
Today's political arguments for science: Prospects of increased wealth vs. a better understanding of nature and of mankind
Foresight and strategy processes in research councils and research programmes share the same rationales or objectives (i.e. as listed by Georghiou&Keenan)
But such rationales for foresight with its focus on “innovation”, “priority-setting”, “inclusion of stakeholders”, and “future prospects” challenges traditionally thinking (Mode-1) scientists

7. Methods and approaches
Methods and approaches to strategy and foresight in science and technology
Underpinned by the tradition of strategic management literature
‘Strategy’, ‘priority-setting’ and ‘foresight’ are not household terms among many scientists
Often associated with “administration”, “bureaucracy”, “political intervention in science” – early death and other catastrophes
A quite simplified understanding of what strategy is about – (i.e. Mintzberg)
alternative understandings: strategy as environment scanning, as learning, as positioning, etc.
Focus on rational-analytical models or understandings of decision processes (i.e. March)
alternative understandings: Anarchical models (muddling through, logical incrementalism, garbage can), Political models (powers, mean/goal compromises)

8. Rationales and drivers

9. Actors involved

10. Methods and approaches

11. Understandings of strategy – research council
The strategy of covering all existing research areas
Supporting existing areas – the opposite of priority-setting?
The strategy of positions of strengths
Underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future potentials
The strategy of gaps and weaknesses
Priorities related to scientific weaknesses - compared to international developments
The strategy of more money
Attention to science by illustrating its societal importance
The strategy of no strategy
No priorities made – the strategy is a description of existing activities and some promising perspectives
The strategy of co-ordination
coordination activities - creating and reinforcing networks
The strategy of new measures or new instruments
The strategy of (techno-scientific) territory
Demarcation, e.g. against natural sciences and the natural science research council

12. Understandings of strategy - energy programme
The strategy of new technologies
Technology and not science discipline oriented
The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems
Innovation system oriented
The strategy of serving industry

13. Conclusions 1
Research councils and research programmes do carry out strategy processes that have similarities with foresight exercises.
Only very few traditional Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Methods are used.
These processes can be improved by implementing processual elements of foresight exercises – especially with respect to elements such as
legitimacy of future perspectives
inclusion of actors

14. Conclusions 2
Language and terminology. The scientific community not always familiar with common strategy and foresight terminology.
Rational-analytical processes. Foresight exercises are often understood and outlined as rational-analytical decision processes - whereas research councils seem to follow more other models (muddling-through, garbage can, logical incrementalism, political, etc.)
Priority-setting on measures and instruments. Priority-setting goes beyond selections between alternative areas of science and technology, also measures and instruments are important issues in research strategies.
Overall national policies. Foresight exercises taking national policies into account as a boundary condition are much easier to implement than those challenging national policies.

15. More information on this study:
A small related study:
Mapping of Nordic national research and innovation council systems and analysis of their needs for foresight and similar strategic intelligence.
A small survey of Nordic Foresight Network
Draft report by early October