1. Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Adam Mazurkiewicz, Beata Poteralska
Institute for Sustainable Technologies – National Research Institute, Radom, Poland

2. Presentation plan Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Presentation plan
Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Scope of The National Foresight Programme „Polska 2020”
Methodology of The National Foresight Programme „Polska 2020”
Results of the Programme execution
Conclusions

3. Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Assumptions
Subject area of the analysis covers foresight exercises carried out on a national level
Analysis concerns projects in strategic areas (comprising one or many disciplines)
Particular attention is paid to foresight exercises with the time horizon to year 2020
Aspects of the analysis
Objectives of foresight projects
Applied methods
Implementation of projects’ results in practice

4. Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Analysis of foreign foresight projects
Classification of foresight exercises

5. Scope of NFP„Polska 2020” Structure of the Programme Main Panel
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Scope of NFP„Polska 2020”
Structure of the Programme
Sustainable Development of Poland
Consortium coordinating the project
Steering
Committee
Main Panel
Partner institutions
External Thematics
Research
Area 1
Area 3
Information and Telecommunications Technologies
Security
Area 2
Thematic Panels *
* Additional panel added in the course of the Programme’s execution

6. Scope of NFP„Polska 2020” Scope of Thematic Panels in the Programme
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Scope of NFP„Polska 2020”
Scope of Thematic Panels in the Programme
Thematic Panels
Quality of life
Sources and use of power resources
Key ecological problems
Environmental protection technologies
Natural resources
New materials and technologies
Transport
Integration of ecological policy with sectoral policies
Product policy
Sustainable development of regions and areas
Future advanced industrial technologies
“Sustainable Development of Poland”
Research Area 1
Thematic Panels
Access to information
ICT and the society
ICT and education
e-Business
New media
“Information and Telecommunications Technologies” Research Area 2
Thematic Panels
Economic security (external and internal)
Intellectual security
Social security
Technical and technological security
Development of civic society.
“Security”
Research Area 3

7. Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodological assumptions
Work is executed by formally appointed Thematic Panels with support of external experts
Delphi theses and scenarios are developed within the same time limit in the whole Programme
Two rounds of Delphi are run
Three scenarios (coherent for the whole Programme) are developed
SWOT analysis and work of Thematic Panels are carried out in a flexible way

8. Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
General algorithm of work in the panel „Sustainable Development of Poland”
Determination of key objectives for each Thematic Panel
Preparation of proposals of topics by Thematic Panels, selection of macro-topics
Preparation of proposals of priorities by Thematic Panels
(20-30 for each panel)
(priority – technology, method, way of solving, technique, procedure)
Assessment of priorities with the use of a set of criteria
Assessment of priorities by internal experts of Thematic Panels
Assessment of priorities by external experts
Preparation of a list of macropriorities by Thematic Panels
Analysis of the list of macropriorities
Proposition of additional macro-priorities by the Research Area Panel
Preparation of the list of macropriorities divided into three groups: ecological, technological and socio-economic
Development of Delphi theses
Delphi – 2 rounds
Discussion on Delphi results
PEST analysis
Cross-impact analysis
Selection of key driving forces
Selection of priority technologies
Scenarios development

9. Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
General algorithm of work - phases
Preparation of a list of topics and the selection of macrotopics
Generation of priorities, the preparation of assessment criteria and the selection of macropriorities
Preparation of Delphi theses
Development of scenarios

10. Thematic Panel “New Materials and Technologies”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Model of formulating Delphi theses
Highly-processed functional materials: isotropic, gradient, thin-layer materials
Conceptually new functional (isotropic, gradient, thin-layer) materials based on nanotechnology and processes of layers synthesis for mechanics and biomedical engineering
Nanomaterials and nanotechnologies will create a technological base for creation of new generation mechatronic subassemblies in an industrial scale
Thin functional layers and technologies of their deposition (by means of plasma, electrobeam, laser, etc. methods) will create a technological base for manufacturing sensors and low- friction couples in micro and nano scale
Development of devices and research and process tools for nanotechnologie and micro- and nanorobotics will enable start of their production in an industrial scale
MACROTOPICS
PANEL’S MACROPRIORITIES
DELPHI THESES
Thematic Panel “New Materials and Technologies”

11. Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Development of scenarios
Assumptions
Scenarios comprise visions of the future together with reference to three fields of the Research Area ”Sustainable Development of Poland” - environmental protection and natural resources, technologies, and socio-economic trends.
Three scenarios are created for the Research Area ”Sustainable Development of Poland,” which make the input to the development of the cores of three scenarios for the whole Programme NFP “Polska 2020.”
The year 2020 was assumed as the time horizon of scenarios.

12. Research Area Panel “Sustainable Development of Poland”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Development of scenarios
Ecological group
Socio-economic
group
Technological group
Research Area Panel “Sustainable Development of Poland”
Delphi
Expert panels
Selection of priority technologies
Selection of key driving forces
Scenarios development
Scenario A
- technology a1
- technology a2
- technology a3 …
- technology an
Scenario C
- technology c1
- technology c2
- technology c3
- technology cp
Scenario B
- technology b1
- technology b2
- technology b3
- technology bm
Key driving force B
Key driving force A
∑ an +bm +cp ≤ 30

13. Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Methodology of NFP „Polska 2020”
Development of scenarios
Steering Committee
approval
Main Panel
Research Area 1
Research Area 2
Research Area 3
S 1.1
S 2.1
S 3.1
S ij (i, j 1-3) – scenarios developed by the Research Area Panels
S 1-3 – scenarios developed by the Main Panel
S 1.2
S 2.2
S 3.2
S 1.3
S 2.3
S 3.3
Scenario S1
Scenario S2
Scenario S3

14. Results of the Programme execution
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Results of the Programme execution
Results
Creation of the development vision of Poland until year 2020, including the priority directions of scientific-development work
Implementation of the Programme results in practice in a form of priority directions of national research programmes
Activation of scientific and industrial circles towards generating topics of future research and development and inspiring regional co-operation
Achievement of practical experience and support for the creation of a content-related and methodological base for foresight projects in the future
Dissemination of the culture of planning economic and social future in Poland at the regional, sectoral and national level
Methodological and organisational problems
Insufficient knowledge of experts with respect to the foresight methodology
Insufficient methodological support for the content-related experts
Lack of systematised unified methodology for the whole Programme
Majority of scientists in expert panels
Lack of effective connections of regional and sectoral
projects with NFP „Polska 2020”

15. Conclusions Suggestions for a successful foresight project execution
Methodology of foresight projects in strategic areas on the basis of the National Foresight Programme “Polska 2020”
Conclusions
Suggestions for a successful foresight project execution
resulting from NFP „Polska 2020”
Detailed methodology developed at the initial stage of a project execution
Selection of a group of multispecialists representing different disciplines and spheres of the economy
Methodological training and support for participants of the project
Provision of a coherent structure of experts work results
Introduction of a cyclical process of carrying out foresight