1 © 2007 Ipsos Reid Public Affairs Privileged and confidential Stalemate in Perpetual Motion Will They Stay or Will They Go?

2 Purpose For the moment, antics in the House of Commons are merely entertainment. Nonetheless, an election can always be triggered by a confluence of random events and general weirdness; Don’t be distracted by isolated events or short-term adjustments in momentum – the overall trends are consistent and enduring; Leaving aside shenanigans in the House, we will have an election only when it is seen to work to the advantage of the three opposition parties; Purpose today is to bring some rationality into the on-going, hysterical speculation about election timing; Scary thing to do given my first point!

3 What’s a Win? (Tories) In the short-term, the only “win” for the Tories is a majority (will take at least 41%); The closer we get to the Fall of ’09, a minority win will start looking “acceptable.”

4 What’s a Win? (Grits) Win a majority; Win a minority; Lose a very narrow minority to the Tories and it’s clear the government won’t last.

5 What’s a Win? (NDP) Significantly increase seats over ’06 (little win); Significantly increase seats over ’06, and hold the balance of power (big win).

6 What’s a Win? (BQ) Increase seats over ’06; Increase seats over ’06, and hold the balance of power; Win the plurality of seats in Quebec.

7 What’s a Win? (Green) Get into Leaders’ debate; Win 1 seat.

8 Reality Check In the short-term, the Conservatives will have the hardest time meeting their winning conditions. Little incentive to trigger an election; The Liberals have more incentive to cause an election, because their winning conditions are much easier to meet; The NDP can only meet their winning conditions if the Liberals slide. So, little incentive to trigger a Grit-driven election; The BQ has the easiest time meeting its winning conditions – will jump on board a bandwagon, but can’t start a parade.

9 Do Canadians want an election? November 2005March %66%

10 Overview Policies & Issues Leadership Political Environment Desire for Election HOUSE OF COMMONS THE ELECTORATE

11 Policies and Issues

12 Thinking of the issues presently confronting Canada, which one do you feel should receive the greatest attention from Canada's leaders? (Open-Ended) Top Canadian Issues

13 Economy

14 Trigger? Which party has the advantage in an economic downturn?

15 The State of the Canadian Economy (Percentage of respondents who describe current Canadian economy as “good”) In terms of the current economic conditions in this country as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the Canadian economy right now? This was the week the TSX lost massive ground and banks posted big losses

16 The State of the Economy cont…

17 Canadian Job Anxiety (Percentage of respondents) All Canadians And, are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off? Base: All respondents N=1005

18 The Economy Going Forward

19 Canadian Opinions on the Economy Thinking about the possibility of an economic slowdown here in Canada, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements Base: All respondents N=1001

20 How Canadians View a Federal Government Deficit How acceptable would it be for the government to run a deficit if there was a downturn in the economy?

21 How Much Credit/Blame Should Tories Get For Economic Conditions of Last Two Years? Thinking overall about the role that the national government plays in managing or stimulating the economy, how much credit or blame should he Conservative government be given for Canada's economic conditions over the last two years?

22 Who Can Best Manage the Economy? Of the three main federal parties, who do you have the most confidence in to best manage the national economy?

23 Afghanistan

24 National Support for the Combat role in Afghanistan (Percentage of respondents)

25 The Future of Afghanistan On Canada’s mission to Afghanistan, in 2009, when our military mission is supposed to finish, which of the following would you be most likely to support? The government should either…

26 Canadians’ Assessment of the Manley Plan As you may know, a panel investigating the future of Canada's Armed Forces in Afghanistan has released its recommendations this week. The panel is recommending that Canada gradually shift its focus to a less combative role after February of 2009, provided that 1,000 additional troops be deployed to Afghanistan by Canada's allies, and that Canada receives new medium-lift helicopters and other aircraft to assist with the job. If these conditions are not met, the panel says that Canada should no longer be responsible for security in the Kandahar region of Afghanistan. Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the panel's recommendations, do you think that this is a great plan, good plan, fair plan, or bad plan for the future of Canada's troops in Afghanistan?

27 Leadership

28 Overall impressions of the leaders Stephan Harper - Conservatives Stephane Dion - Liberals Jack Layton - NDP Gilles Duceppe - Bloc Of the following, how would you rate the leadership qualities and skills that each of the federal leaders possesses?

29 Harper vs. Dion If you had a choice between only voting for Stephen Harper and Stephane Dion in an election, who would you most likely vote for?

30 Would Vote – or Never Vote

31 The Leaders – The Good, The Bad and the Ugly Someone you can trust 39% (Layton 31%, Dion 25%) Someone who will get things done 48% (Dion 24%, Layton 23%) Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada 46% (Dion 26%, Layton 25%) Someone who has vision of Canada that you can support 40% (Layton 29%, Dion 27%) Someone who has values that are close to your own 37% (Layton 32%, Dion 24%) Someone who has a hidden agenda 44% (Dion 34%, Layton 20%) Someone who will fight for what they believe is right even if most people disagree with them 41% (Layton 35%, Dion 22%) Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good 38% (Layton 33%, Dion 25%) Someone who is conceited and full of themselves 45% (Dion 29%, Layton 22%) Someone who will say anything to get elected 39% (Dion 37%, Layton 21%) Someone who is sincerely committed to dealing with Global warming 39% (Harper 28%, Dion 27%) Someone who is open to the ideas of others 36% (Harper 32%, Dion 26%)

32 Vote Support

33 CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid Survey, Mar 4-Mar 6, Decided voters including leaners (867). 8% of all Canadian adults (n=1001) are undecided Federal Vote Support March 7, 2008, percentage of decided voters

34 Federal Voting Intentions 4-Week Rollup Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included N=3358 Field Dates Wave 1: Jan 22 – 24 Wave 2: Feb 13 – 14 Wave 3: Feb 22 – 24 Wave 4: March Canada N=3358 +/ % British Columbia N=437 +/- 4.69% Alberta N=353 +/- 5.22% Saskatchewan/ Manitoba N=211 +/- 675% Ontario N=1276 +/- 2.74% Quebec N=857 +/- 3.35% Atlantic N=224 +/- 6.55%

35 Key Demographics

36 The West vs. The East BCAlberta Sask./ Manitoba OntarioQuebecAtlantic Conservative 41%64%44%35%23%33% Liberal 26%18%29%36%24%44% NDP 19%10%19%15%11%15% Green 11%8% 13%7% Bloc Quebecois %- % Vote in each Region

37 Battleground Ontario Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included 416 N=236, 905 N=254, Other Ontario N=765

38 Montreal vs. the Rest of Quebec Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Montreal N=474, Other Quebec N=383

39 Vancouver vs. Other BC Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Vancouver N=213, Other BC N=224

40 Alberta vs. Saskatchewan/Manitoba Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Alberta N=353, Saskatchewan/Manitoba N=211

41 The Gender Gap Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Male N=1679 Female N=1679

42 Focus on Women: By Age Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women N=375, Women N=734, Women 55+ N=563

43 Focus on Women: By Income Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women Less than 30K N=283, Women 30-60K N=493, Women 60+K N=675

44 Focus on Women: By Urban/Rural Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included Women, Urban N=1659 Women, Rural N=320

45 Political Support by Age Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support? Base: Decided Voters – Leaners Included N=728, N=1482, 55+ N=1134

46 The Elusive Majority

47 Where they are now…23 seats shy *Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University

48 At 41%, seat projection analysis produces a thin majority… *Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University

49 But only if in the right regions *Seat projections in collaboration with Dr. Barry Kay, Wilfrid Laurier University

50 A Tory Majority Needs… Liberal/Tory switchers in Ontario (especially the 905), have to switch and stick this time. Tories need a ballot question that forces this to happen. Micro-targeting won’t create a big enough wave; Key to victory will be suburban, middle class, middle-aged women in Ontario; Tories not yet achieving enough in Quebec to offset Grit strength in Ontario; Tories likely to lose seats in Atlantic Canada, offset by some gains in the West.

51 Conclusion

52 Will We Have an Election in 2008? Apart from an accidental trigger, or completely unforeseen event, the answer is NO. It is a stalemate in perpetual motion; Tories too far away from a majority to want an election. Math is very, very difficult; Grits may say they want an election, but lack momentum, an issue, and leadership advantage; NDP running below the last election, and Grits are now stronger than in ’06; Bloc content to join a bandwagon, but can’t lead a parade; And, Canadians REALLY don’t want an election.

53 Thanks – Merci – Grazie Arigato – Gracias – Thenk Ye Cam on – Kiitos – Terima Kasih Tak – Mahalo – Danke M goi nei sin Xie xie © 2007 Ipsos Reid Public Affairs Privileged and confidential