ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Hazel H. Reinhardt January 21, 2014 June 15, 2015

SUMMARY In the past ten years, enrollment increased 1.2 percent The district’s school age population increased 1.8 percent while resident enrollment in the Marshall Public Schools increased 2.8 percent The Marshall Public Schools’ share increased but is lower than some comparable communities due to the high percentage of students in nonpublic settings, but similar to state wide average The Marshall Public Schools are a net gainer among the various public school options

SUMMARY All four enrollment projections show enrollment increasing. In ten years, the projected increase ranges from 18.6 percent to 23.3 percent Enrollment increases at all levels (elementary, middle and high school) Caution: Projections assume that Grade 9 will be percent larger than Grade 8 due to nonpublic students or other students entering high school If that rate is lower, the overall rate of growth will be lower The district will need more single-family detached housing units to house the projected enrollment increase 2014—needs more units, not just single-family detached

TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY K-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT , , , , , , , , , , ,293 Excludes Early Childhood and MECLA

COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE Fall to Fall TotalNatural Increase/Decrease Net Migration #% 2004 to to to to to to to to to to %1861

EDUCATION CHOICES MinnesotaMarshall Nonpublic settings10.0%16.3% Traditional schools8.1%14.9% Home schools1.9%1.3% Public Options Open enrollment6.4% In10.2% Out6.1% Charter schools4.1%--- Capture Rate78.8%77.7%

TOTAL ENROLLMENT Grade K Total2,1872,1902,1822,2242,1702,1362,1682,2062,2162,214

TOTAL ENROLLMENT Grade K Total2,1902,1822,2242,1702,1362,1682,2062,2162,2142,293

AVERAGE GRADE SIZE “Average” grade size 171/175 K-4 151/ / The distribution of students by grade suggests enrollment will increase if kindergarten remains near its current level Kindergarten fluctuated in size but is significantly larger today than ten years ago

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS RESIDENT BIRTHS YearMinnesotaLyon County , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,183361

MACRO TRENDS Aging population Less mobility Decrease in school age population per household Shift in size of adult age groups Less demand for single-family detached housing More births this decade and the next (Gen Y) Another enrollment cycle (third) Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)

PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES Cohort survival method Projections by grade Reflects recent births and current size of grades Difficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect additional housing units, especially if a large number of units

KINDERGARTEN POOL Birth YearsCounty PoolPercentageKindergarten 1998; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; % ; ; ; ;

KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATES Cohort survival method Kindergarten Assumptions (based on 2013 data) Low is 50.3%, the average of the past three years High is 51.3%, the average of the past five years Longer-term Lyon County births are higher than projected, so adjusted upward by 5.5%

KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS Total1,9171,954

NET MIGRATION SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR Grade04 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 13 K Total

NET MIGRATION SCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR Grade05 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 1313 to 14 K Total

NET MIGRATION BY GRADE Grade04 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to 13 K to to to to to to to to to to to to Total

NET MIGRATION BY GRADE Grade05 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 0909 to 1010 to 1111 to 1212 to to 14 K to to to to to to to to to to to to Total

PROJECTED SURVIVAL RATES GradeLow (past 5 years)High (past 3 years) K to to to to to to to to to to to to

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Based on 2014, enrollment projections based on 2013 data are still reasonable. No reason to make new projections

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Year Low K Low Mig High K Low Mig Low K High Mig High K High Mig , ,2712,2742,2702, ,3242,3312,3242, ,3742,3812,3792, ,4182,4312,4322, ,4432,4592,4682, ,4782,4982,5152, ,5192,5422,5662, ,5662,5932,6242, ,5922,6232,6572, ,6252,6612,6932,730

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS K Total , Low K/Low Mig ,443 High K/Low Mig ,459 Low K/High Mig ,468 High K/High Mig , Low K/Low Mig ,625 High K/Low Mig ,0032,661 Low K/High Mig ,0262,693 High K/High Mig ,0302,730

HOUSING Maxfield Research, Inc. findings: Demand to support 608 general occupancy housing units in City of Marshall between 2015 and 2025 Demand expected to favor rental housing, with 371 rental units and 237 for-sale housing units needed in City of Marshall by 2025 Based on recent sale transactions, housing demand is highest for modestly-priced housing in the $100,000 to $150,000 range