1. ENCINITAS UNION SCHOOL DISTRICT (EUSD) DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT NOVEMBER 2004

2. This report contains: A review of forecasts made in 2002-03 and 2003-04 What changes have occurred since June 2004 The November 2004 forecast Implications for EUSD

3. 2002-03 Base Assumptions The City of Carlsbad forecast that an additional 1,553 residential units could be constructed within EUSD’s territory. The City of Encinitas forecast that an additional 3,961 residential units could be constructed within EUSD’s territory. The Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios were as high as 0.486. Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios of existing units located east of El Camino Real were increasing.

4. 2002-03 School Capacity and Enrollment Assumptions

5. 2002-03 West of El Camino Real Forecast

6. 2002-03 East of El Camino Real Forecast

7. 2002-03 District-wide Forecast

8. November 2003-04 Base Assumptions The number of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had not changed. The Pupils per Dwelling Unit average ratios were 0.263 Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios for existing residential units located east of El Camino Real were decreasing.

9. 2003-04 West of El Camino Real Forecast

10. 2003-04 East of El Camino Real Forecast

11. 2003-04 District-wide Forecast

12. The April 2004 Demographic Update revealed: The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had decreased from 5,514 to 3,792. Home sales prices were increasing significantly. The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of all school attendance areas had slightly increased from 0.263 to 0.275.

13. April 2004 Demographic Update

15. The June 2004 Demographic Update revealed: The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had decreased had decreased from 3,792 to 3,394. Home sales prices had increased significantly causing many district home prices to be out of reach for families with elementary school children. The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of all school attendance areas had slightly increased from 0.275 to 0.277.

16. June 2004 Demographic Update

19. New Information for this Report Enrollment is declining over most of Southern California. The district’s sixth grade class that will graduate in 2004-05 is larger than the kindergarten class of 2004-05 thereby decreasing Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios. The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas have decreased to 2,662. The average Pupils per Dwelling Unit has decreased to 0.198 with single family unit ratios at 0.278. Home sales prices have continued to be high.

20. New Information for this Report 2004-05 CBEDS ENROLLMENT

21. New Information for this Report

22. In what types of residential units do our resident students live. How many resident units are in each school’s attendance area.

23. New Information for this Report

26. Analysis of Factors that Affect Enrollment Impact of economic factors – Analyze affordability for first-time buyer families and families with elementary school children. Impact of births for families in existing homes – Analyze female population between 18 and 44 years Impact of new residential development

27. Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years

36. Impact of New Residential Development Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers

37. Impact of New Residential Development –Average PPDU Forecast Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers

38. Impact of New Residential Development Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers

39. Annual Enrollment Forecast Average Pupils per Dwelling Unit (PPD)

40. Annual Enrollment Forecast Single Family Detached PPD

41. Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue

42. Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA

43. Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA

44. Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA

45. Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA

46. When could EUSD enrollment expect to grow?

47. Conclusions Enrollment growth could be negative or flat until between 2012 and 2018. Assessed valuation will likely increase faster than the minimum 2 percent authorized under Proposition 13. Local revenue will likely exceed Revenue Limit revenue for resident ADA until 2015. Current facilities will likely have sufficient capacity through 2015. Our next school may not be needed until 2020.