1. North Penn School District Enrollment Projections
School Board of Directors
June 6, 2017
Prepared by the Montgomery County Planning Commission

2. North Penn SD Enrollment Trends
Enrollment in the North Penn School District over the next 10 years will depend upon:
Recent and future births
Demographic change
Moves in and out of the school district
New housing construction
Nonpublic Schools, Charter and Cyber Charter Schools, and Homeschooling options
The Cohort Progression Method accounts for recent trends under these factors 2

3. Part 1 School District Characteristics

4. North Penn SD Population Trends
The NPSD area grew by 5.8% in the ‘00 decade after exceeding 20% in previous decades.
Growth to 2020 continues the trend from last decade with 5.3% growth expected.
Population increases do not necessarily correlate to an increase in school age children.
School age children declined over the last decade as did district enrollment in years between 2000 and 2010.
The population most likely to give birth also declined.
Age Cohort
Total
Total
Change
0-4
6,378
5,722
-656
5-17
16,964
16,043
-921
25-34
13,038
12,041
-997

5. Birth Activity
Birth activity has been subject to a gradual decline over the last fifteen years in the NPSD, with a modest comeback recently, which is similar to the pattern of declining births in most districts and the county as a whole
Births are directly related to future elementary school students, but other factors can disrupt that relationship, i.e. independent school, moving
The effects of changes in birth trends are far removed (6+ years)
NPSD Birth Totals by School Year
Countywide Birth Totals
Source: PA Department of Health 5

6. Child-Bearing Aged Females
Countywide, Females Age are rising and they are projected to peak by This growth corresponds to the Millennial Generation.
Source: DVRPC
In the NPSD, Females Age and decreased by a net of 605 from 2000 to 2010
Look at the bump in cohorts, the drop in most fertile cohorts. If college age females don’t stay then we might not see the increase in 2020 births.
Age Cohort
2000 Females
2010 Females
15 – 19
2,614
2,828
2,058
2,459
2,972
2,931
3,713
3,149
4,352
3,315
40 -44
4,217
3,601
The younger age cohorts increased, although these younger ages are much more fluid in their movement in and out of the district.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 6

7. School District Enrollment
ES grows by 235, or 27%
The last ten years of enrollment in the NPSD reflect the end of the declining period and subsequent trend of increasing enrollment. 7

8. School District Enrollment by Grade Levels
When broken down by grade distributions, enrollment growth in the NPSD has been fueled at the elementary school level over the last 3 years, while middle school totals have declined, and high school has fluctuated. Some cycling is expected looking forward. 8

9. Other School Enrollment
Nonpublic school enrollment has generally trended downward in the county since the recession, but reasons may not be solely economic.
Two data sources appear to confirm the decline in nonpublic school students living the NPSD, although neither data source is perfect.
Census Data
NPSD Bus Data
Year
Private School Students
Percent Private Students in NPSD
Dataset
2000
3,609
21.2%
Census 2000, Summary File 3
2010*
3,279
20.7%
ACS, 5 Year Estimates,
2015*
2,919
18.7%
ACS, 5 Year Estimates,
School Year
Nonpublic School Students
3,078
2,669
2,385
2,364
2,581
2,680
2009 Bus Data showed 671 nonpublic students
Show the top private schools in report
* 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 5 years worth of sampling data
Source: North Penn School District Bus Records
Homeschool and charter and cyber charter school options have held at a fairly consistent level and have a lesser impact on public school enrollment. 9

10. Part 2 Housing Activity

11. Impact of Housing Types on School-Age Children
MCPC conducted a study on the characteristics of the population in different housing types, which included the presence of school-age children
North Penn SD has factors for existing housing types that are very similar to countywide results.
Montgomery County
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached
Multifamily
School Aged Children per Household in Existing Units
0.55
0.41
0.18
School Aged Children per Household in New Units
0.93
0.21
0.06
Source: MCPC, using 2010 Census data
North Penn School District
Single-Family Detached
Single-Family Attached
Multifamily
School Aged Children per Household in Existing Units
0.58
0.41
0.16
School Aged Children per Household in New Units
0.84*
0.08*
0.11*
* Based on limited sample size. 11

12. Impact of Existing Multifamily Developments on Public School Enrollment
MCPC analyzed the number of students coming from all multifamily developments with over 20 units in the North Penn School District.
Multifamily developments are increasing in their student/unit ratio in many districts
Address-only rosters were used for this analysis
All Multifamily (20+ Units)
Multifamily Built After 2000 (20+ Units)
School Year
North Penn SD Students
Total Units
Student / Unit
777
5,350
0.145
897
0.168
1,114
0.208
1,178
0.220
School Year
North Penn SD Students
Total Units
Student / Unit 52
650
0.080 57
0.088 66
0.102 69
0.106 12

13. Housing Construction – Units Built, 2007-2016
Over the last 5 years, an average of 175 units per year were built if you exclude the Age Restricted Developments.
This translates to an average of 46 additional school-age children per year – a baseline for determining impact of future development 13

14. Housing Construction, 2012-201614

15. Impact of Potential Housing Development
The table below shows the most likely new developments on the horizon
Other sites and properties may be in play, but are less certain at this time
If all developments were built as indicated, an additional 121 public school students would be generated
The timelines are best estimates
Development
Type
Total Units
Built by School Years
Notes
Public School Children Impact
Factor for School Age Children
Walnut Creek
SFA
184
2017—2019
Under construction. 31
.21
Belmont Estates
SFD  23
2017, 2018 17
.93
Walnut Street Subdivision
SFD 10
2021
Plan awaiting approvals. 8
Fortuna Station 59
2018, 2019
Thorndale Development
126
2017
Nearing completion of construction, last 27 units delivered by 2017 school year. 5
.2.21
Station Place
2020 2
Penn Square 40
Approved and awaiting construction to begin. 7
Madison Lot Project MF
175
2019—2021
Approved and awaiting construction. 9
.06
Andale Green
172
2017—2020
Under construction in phases. 29
.21.21
Cottage Avenue 22
Conditional use approved, awaiting developer plans. 4
Other Future Possibilities
Hatfield Potential
200+
Up to 200+ units possible across a few sites.
Newbury Phase II
Working on final plans, but currently stalled.
Martin Property
20+
Still in conceptual planning stage.
Walnut Street Apartments
120
Plans still evolving. 15

16. Potential Housing Development
Fortuna Station
59 SFA under construction.
Newbury Phase II
20 SFD currently stalled and working on revisions to plan.
Penn Square
40 SFA approved and awaiting construction
Cottage Avenue
22 SFA conditional use approved and awaiting final plans.
Andale Green
172 SFA under construction.
Station Place
10 SFA waiting for necessary approvals.
Madison Lot Project
175 MF approved and awaiting construction.
Walnut Creek
184 SFA approved and in construction.
Belmont Estates
23 SFD nearing completion.
Thorndale
126 SFA nearing completion.
Walnut Street Subdivision
10 SFD waiting for approvals.
Martin Property
Potential for 20+ SFD units.
Walnut Street Apartments
120 unit MF development that is still evolving while going through pre-development process.
Hatfield Potential
The township has a number of properties in play that could result in 200+ units in the future. 16

17. The Impact of Existing Housing Sales in NPSD
Year of Housing Units Sold
2012
2014
2016
Number of Existing Units Sold
959
1048
1186
Incoming Students at Address of Units Sold
194
193
227
Outgoing Students at Address of Units Sold
169
170
181
Net Change in Students from Sales Activity
+25
+23
+46
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
The last four years of data show a slow increase in housing sales after a period of variability in sales. The sales from 2012, 2014, 2016 all brought in more children than left the district.
If sales increase, an increase in students is expected from that activity – the churning of households.
New households also have a high likelihood of adults age 25-34 17

18. Existing Housing Sales, 2012-201618

19. Part 3 District Enrollment Projections

20. What is the Cohort Progression Model?
Grade Transition
B-K
K-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
5 year avg.
0.735
1.168
1.003
1.005
1.012
1.008
1.015
1.030
0.964
1.048
PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
GRADE
YEAR
BIRTHS
KDG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
TOTAL STUDENTS
1,041
765
944
945
1,015
1,007
1,020
1,016
1,053
952
929
1,044
1,040
1,028
12,757
1,063
781
894
947
949
1,026
1,011
1,032
1,056
957
956
1,006
1,090
12,734
1,132
832
913
897
951
960
1,031
1,035
1,061
985
922
1,055
12,705
1,083
796
972
916
901
962
965
1,047
1,093
966
12,682
1,097
806
930
975
920
911
967
973
1,038
1,052
1,071
995
12,747
942
933
980
931
987
1,059
1,043
1,104
12,791
937
991
935
923
990
1,064
1,074
1,082
12,724
948
996
943
993
1,096
1,036
1,094
12,680
953
1,004
940
998
1,025
1,085
12,621
1,019
1,027
988
1,107
12,574 20

21. Grade Progression Rates – NPSD
School Year
Birth-K*
K-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
0.740
1.177
1.002
0.989
1.007
1.003
0.999
1.005
0.994
0.997
1.022
0.952
1.060
0.737
1.165
1.018
0.991
1.004
1.013
1.030
1.015
1.040
0.957
1.042
0.749
1.184
1.016
1.010
1.031
0.993
0.995
1.021
0.950
1.048
0.724
1.182
0.986
1.028
1.012
1.006
1.039
0.972
1.034
0.726
1.134
1.017
1.014
1.011
1.055
5 Year Average
0.735
1.168
1.008
0.964
On average in NPSD, all classes except for the 10th grade add students from one grade to the next – signified by a progression rate above 1.0
The Birth – Kindergarten ratio is different than other transitions, and more volatile. It connects births from 6 years prior to the kindergarten class they impact
These rates reflect the trends that have been discussed in this study 21

22. Enrollment Projection Model
Primary (next 5 years) and Secondary (6-10 years away) Periods
3 scenarios have been prepared based on alternative futures depending on housing and birth rates.
Option 1 – Base Future Birth Estimate
Progression rate averages are based on five years
Future births are estimated as an average of the last six years
Option 2 – Higher Future Birth Estimate
Maintains the same progression rates as Option One
Increase in Estimated Births—Births affecting the enrollment size of classes beginning in could progressively increase beginning with the birth estimates
Option 3 – Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment for Likely Development
Maintains the same progression rates and higher future birth estimate used in Option Two
Accounts for increase in expected housing construction with an adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level
** Recommended Scenario **
Higher birth could occur due to increase in fertility rates, possibly due to economy, as well as an increase in sales activity 22

23. Scenario Comparisons, All Grades K-12
Year
Option 1—Base Future Births
Option 2 – Higher Future Births
Option 3—Housing Adjustment with Higher Future Births
(Current)
12,870
5 Yr. Change from to
-123
-117
-81
5 Yr. Change from to
-173
115
150
(Projected)
12,574
12,868
12,939
10 Yr. Change Since
-296 -2 69
Option 1 - Without any adjustments to the model, trends show that the District is expected to decline in both the primary and secondary periods.
Option 2 – Increased birth activity results in student gains during the secondary period, but resulting in no net change overall.
Option 3 – The primary period decline lessens with new housing construction and births and new development account for a larger gain in the secondary period. 23

24. Public School Enrollment Projections, District
Year
Option 1— Base Future Births
Option 2 – Higher Future Births
Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment
(Current)
12,870
12,757
12,770
12,734
12,767
12,705
12,753
12,682
12,724
12,747
12,789
5 Yr. Change from to
-123
-117
-81
12,791
12,818
12,861
12,790
12,840
12,680
12,804
12,621
12,820
12,884
12,574
12,868
12,939
5 Yr. Change from to
-173
115
150
10 Yr. Change Since
-296 -2 69
Option 3—Annual Change
-100 -3
-14
-29 65 72
-21 21 23 55 24

25. Elementary School Summary, Grades K-6
Year
Option 1— Base Future Births
Option 2 – Higher Future Births
Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment
(Current)
6,815
6,711
6,718
6,638
6,655
6,604
6,630
6,552
6,574
6,483
6,488
6,507
5 Yr. Change from to
-332
-327
-308
6,482
6,509
6,532
6,480
6,546
6,573
6,529
6,653
6,684
6,560
6,759
6,794
6,823
6,861
5 Yr. Change from to 46
335
354
10 Yr. Change Since
-286 8
Option 3—Annual Change
-97
-63
-25
-56
-67 25 41
111
110 67 25

26. Middle School Summary, Grades 7-9
Year
Options 1 & 2—Base and Higher Future Births
Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment
(Current)
2,887
2,933
2,936
3,044
3,052
3,140
3,151
3,122
3,132
3,146
3,154
5 Yr. Change from to
259
267
3,090
3,099
3,056
2,925
2,938
2,895
2,909
2,924
2,940
5 Yr. Change from to
-222
-214
10 Yr. Change Since 37 53
Option 3—Annual Change 49
116 99
-19 22
-55
-43
-118
-29 31 26

27. High School Summary, Grades 10-12
Year
Options 1 & 2—Base and Higher Future Births
Option 3—Higher Future Births w/ Housing Adjustment
(Current)
3,168
3,112
3,115
3,052
3,060
2,961
2,972
3,008
3,018
3,119
3,127
5 Yr. Change from to
-49
-41
3,219
3,229
3,200
3,212
3,225
3,239
3,166
3,181
3,122
3,138
5 Yr. Change from to 3 11
10 Yr. Change Since
-46
-30
Option 3—Annual Change
-53
-55
-88 46
109
102
-17 27
-58
-43 27

28. Part 4 School Profiles

29. Elementary School Forecasts
Individual schools can be difficult to project due to non-municipal boundaries, redistricting, and smaller sizes
MCPC profiles include:
Past Enrollments
Housing Construction
Housing Sales
Related Birth Figures
Housing Potential
Five year forecasts are best guesses given what we know and how it fits into the context of the overall district model for elementary schools
ES School
Estimated Change Through
Knapp ES 30
Kulp ES 15
Nash ES
Gwynedd Square ES
-10
Bridle Path ES
-15
York Avenue ES
-20
Hatfield ES
-25
North Wales ES
Oak Park ES
Walton Farm ES
-30
Gwyn Nor ES
-70
Inglewood ES
-85
Montgomery ES
-105 29

30. Middle School Forecasts
Total Middle School Enrollment Option 3
Past Enrollment—The three middle schools have exhibited different overall trends since 2011.
Pennbrook - cycled up and down to remain steady.
Penndale - declined by over 200.
Pennfield - gained about 50.
Forecast—The combined MS totals will grow over the next 3 years, stabilize, and then decline during the secondary period (last five years).
Over the next five years…
Pennbrook is the least likely to grow. Penndale should grow again with new construction and currently reduced class sizes cycling through. Pennfield should also grow, but much less than Penndale.
Year
Enrollment
(Current)
2,887
2,936
3,052
3,151
3,132
3,154
5 Yr. Change from to
267
3,099
3,056
2,938
2,909
2,940
5 Yr. Change from to
-214
10 Yr. Change Since 53 30

31. Conclusion
General trends would provide for a decrease of almost 300 students over the next ten years, but birth activity and new housing are expected to counteract the decline and result in a net gain of almost 70 students.
Important Trends:
Housing construction is expected to outpace the recent trend level and bring additional growth. Several projects could add an additional 71 students above the trend development level.
Birth activity has been relatively low in recent years, but it could increase further as the millennial generation moves into child-bearing ages. This effect will not be as relevant to enrollment until the secondary period and beyond.
The number of students coming from older apartment buildings has increased by over 50% since 2009.
Additional students are also resulting from an increase in housing sales activity.
Measures to observe in coming years that could affect the longer term projections:
School Calendar Birth Rates
Residential Development
Sales Activity
Nonpublic School Enrollment
Students in Multifamily Housing 31