The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue after the Russian Ukrainian Gas Conflict Seminar: The Impact of the EU Enlargement upon the Energy Market Munich 26 January 2007 Dr. Josephine Bollinger-Kanne

Causes and Results of the Russian- Ukrainian Gas Conflict  High fuel prices in the last years  Gazprom‘s price demands of $160 in November 2005 and $230 per 1,000 of cubic meters later in December 2005  No Pipelinedeal with Ukraine  Higher transit fee demands of Ukrainian negotiators (1)Gazproms delivery stop of natural gas to Ukraine on 1 January 2006 at 10:00 am (2)Agreement on 4 January 2006: RosUkrEnergo as purchaser of Gazprom‘s and Central Asian natural gas for the Ukraine Mix of Russian and Central Asian gas for $95 per 1,000 cubic meters Increased transit fee: from $1.09 to 1.6 per 100 km per 1,000 cubic meters no more barter

Impacts of the Gas Conflict on EU Member States Reduced gas supplies between 20 and 50 percent to EU Member States after the cut-off Russian gas to Ukraine on 1 January 2006 Growing concerns about the Russian supply security Awakening of the EU Member States to the vulnerability by their demand of natural gas and to the poltical power of natural resources Correcting of the European Energy Strategy - Green Book by the responsible EU energy officals Intensified EU-Russia Energy Dialogue negotiations and several summits and conferences in 2006

Major Gas Pipelines of the Former Soviet Union 80 percent of Russian gas to Europe is transported across Ukraine

Structure of primary energy demand in EU25 and EU27 Source: EC DG TREN, European Energy and Transport.Trends to Update 2005

Gross Inland Consumption of Natural Gas 2005 and 2020 in % Source: EC DG TREN, European Energy and Transport.Trends to Update 2005

EU-Russia Energy Dialogue Launching: at the EU-Russia Summit in Paris in October 2000 Aim: better energy relations between EU and Russia based on the assumption of their growing interdependence: from the EU for reasons of security of supply and from Russia for reason of secure foreign investment and its facilitated access to EU and world markets Main topics: energy security, investments, infrastructures, trade and energy efficiency Results: six Progress Reports from 2000 to 2006 with one Interim Report in spring 2006 in the aftermath of the Gas conflict, first reports of the four thematic working groups in accordance to the main topics, various conferences and activities of the Dialogue Technology Centre Two urgent Questions after Russia‘s New Year gas delivery stop to Ukraine: What is the best way to deal with growing imports of Russian Natural Gas from 25 percent today up to 70 percent by 2030? Is there enough Russian natural gas for all?

Russia‘s Production of Natural Gas in Billion Cubic Meters Source: Gazprom, Economic Development and Trade Ministry and own computations *averaged value