Presentation on theme: "ITALIA E RUSSIA – FORO DI DIALOGO Vekselberg V. Marzo 2007."— Presentation transcript:
ITALIA E RUSSIA – FORO DI DIALOGO Vekselberg V. Marzo 2007
2 By 2030 net gas imports may account for two thirds of total consumption. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fuel source in OECD Europe (power generation sector) The bulk of European gas demand growth is provided by just three countries: Italy, Spain and Turkey Net gas imports to OECD Europe expected to grow by 120-150 bcm in next 10 years, which is two thirds of European gas consumption. Average market share of Gazprom in EU countries is 27% Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe, reference case Source: IEA Source: Gazprom Gazprom’s exports to Europe outlook bcm
3 Call on Independents to Increase Sharply Source: IEA, TNK-BP Gas Demand Increasing domestic Russian demand fueled by increase in economic growth and electricity consumption Growing European and FSU demand Gazprom Supply New production from incremental developments will match decline in 3 major fields Significant capex required to keep supply flat. 2005-2015 1% CAGR supply growth Assumes 70 bcma Central Asian supply in 2015 Opportunity for Independents Supply opportunity from independents increase from 105 bcma in 2006 to over 200 bcma in 2015 Russia Demand Europe Demand FSU Demand Gazprom Supply Imports Central Asia Forecast of gas demand and supply by sources 900 800 400 300 200 100 700 600 500 20052010 2015 Independents bcm
4 The Rise of Russian Independent Gas Russian Gas Production Breakdown (Bcm) Total non-Gazprom production up by over 100% during the past 10 years (to 106 Bcm in 2006) Free gas production up by ~50 BCM since 1997 Associated gas production by Russian oil companies back up to 1990 levels Gazprom550 USA526 Canada186 Russian independent producers105 UK88 Iran87 World’s Leading Gas Producers (BCMA) Source: Ministry of Industry and Energy; UBS Independents’ Gas Production Forecast (Bcm/Year) Independents can deliver 140 Bcm/y additional production capacity from existing reserves by 2015!
6 Gas demand in Italy is expected to grow by 25 bcma to 2015; Gazprom will compete for Italian market with Algeria’s Sonatrach Italy is the second largest gas market in continental Europe with consumption of 85 bcm in 2005. Italy is the second largest European market for Gazprom, representing 14% of its exports to Europe. Gazprom provided 24% of Italian gas demand in 2005. OIES predicts that gas demand in Italy should increase by 18 bcm to 2010 and by 25 bcm to 2015. Algeria has two pipeline expansion projects which will allow to increase its exports to Italy by about 10 bcma. Italian gas consumption dynamics Source: OIES Past and projected Gazprom’s exports to Italy Source: Gazprm, EIA, SNBD estimates If Gazprom were to preserve its market share, it should increase gas deliveries to Italy by more than 6 bcma by 2015.