1. The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue
The Roadmap of cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the energy sector until 2050
Institute of Energy Strategy
Deputy General Director
Alexey Gromov
The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue
Brussels, 18th February 2011

2. EU and Russia: energy market interdependence
Energy markets are globalizing
Russia is a key supplier of energy for EU
EU is a key market of energy for Russia
Oil market as global factor
LNG market is globalizing
Russia develops alternative export markets
EU develops alternative import sources 2

3. Russia and EU need common long-term Energy Vision
Long-term global social and economic vision
Nature – Society – People system
Mathematical modeling
global energy modeling
macroeconomics modeling
Technology foresight
energy foresight
non-energy foresight
Energy sector analysis
Key trends
Key events
Fact
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
- Energy-intensive
- Energy savings
- Energy efficiency 3

4. Global energy trends: shift to the developing countries
Global energy consumption, btoe
CO2 emission, billion tonnes
Fact OECD
Reference scenario, OECD
Stagnation scenario, OECD
Innovative scenario, OECD
Fact non-OECD
Reference scenario, non-OECD
Stagnation scenario, non-OECD
Innovative scenario, non-OECD 4

5. Global energy trends: shift to the low-carbon energy
Reference scenario –
carbon-intensive + geopolitics
Stagnation scenario – renewables + climate policy
Innovative scenario –
smart energy + market
Uncertainty is very high
Renewables are key factor
Radical change in energy mix may happen and may not
btoe 5

6. Energy efficiency: €40 bln in 2009 Energy service: €10 bln in 2009
European energy market: shift from commodities to service and to technology
Energy efficiency: €40 bln in 2009
Energy service: €10 bln in 2009
Smart grids: €30 bln in 2009
Renewable energy market: €50 bln in 2009
Carbon markets: €70 bln in 2009
EU as the global leader in new low-carbon energy
Energy commodities market
2010
Energy service market
2030
Energy technology market
2050 7

7. Russia in global energy sector Trend Risk for Russia
Requirement for Russia
Slowing demand for Russian energy
Slowing growth of economy & export
Optimization of export pipeline projects
Shift of demand to Asia
Growing competition in Europe
New export destinations in Asia
End of oil era
Economic crisis
Reduce dependence on oil exports
Climate policy
Limited export opportunities
New markets
New-generation energy sector
Irreversible lag for Russia in energy and economy
Modernization and innovative development of energy and economy
To achieve these goals,
Russia needs cooperation with European Union 8

8. Key challenge for Russia: oil prices: wave dynamics and downward trend
From commodity market to service & technology market
Volatility reduction
The end of oil business
Долл г. за баррель
Fact
Stagnation scenario
Reference scenario
Innovative scenario 9

9. EU and Russia cooperation: common opportunities
Oil & gas
Energy efficiency
Modernization
Arctic fields development
EU-Russia Centre for energy innovation
Common investment in Russia
Projects of common interest
Cooperation in renewable energy
Interconnection of power systems
Oil prices forecast
Heating efficiency in Russia: EU experience is needed
Cooperation in smart greed development
Oil market regulation
Common vision of the transit problem
Regional and municipal energy cooperation
Import of equipment and technology
Creation of common pan-European energy space is a key goal
Objective differences between Russia and EU should be regarded 10

10. Thank you for your attention!
Institute of Energy Strategy
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