See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and.

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Presentation transcript:

See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. North American Equity Research June 17, 2013 Airfreight and Surface Transportation Tom Wadewitz AC Bloomberg: JPMA WADEWITZ J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Michael Weinz, CFA J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Alex Johnson J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Airfreight and Surface Transportation

2 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Transport Rating and Price Target Summary Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates. As of June 12, 2013.

3 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Transport Demand Trends Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013). Source: Association of American Railroads. Total Intermodal

4 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Transport Demand Trends Rail Carloadings Show Modest Y/Y Growth (Cont’d) Data through 2013 Week 22 (ended June 1, 2013). Source: Association of American Railroads. Industrial Automotive

5 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Transport Demand Trends Cass Shipments Index Shows Modest Y/Y Contraction in April and May Data through May Source: Cass Information Systems.

6 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA ISM Data Provides a Read to Transport Activity ISM – Manufacturing Shows Contraction in May Sources: Institute for Supply Management via Bloomberg. Orders Minus Inventories Was Also Weak in May

7 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Truckload Pricing Trends Dry Van Pricing Ex-Fuel Shows Modest Y/Y Growth in March and April Sources: Truckloadrate.com via Bloomberg. Over the Past 12 to 24 Months Pricing Across Truck Types Is Roughly Unchanged

8 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Truckload Capacity Analysis Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 5-Year Life Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March Rolling Capacity of Over-the-Road Class 8 Tractor Fleet Assuming a 7-Year Life 2012 capacity rose 3.6%, assuming a 5-year life 2012 capacity contracted 3.2%, assuming a 7-year life

9 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Truckload Capacity Analysis Class 8 Tractor Sales Are Likely to Be Modestly Lower in 2013 Source: ACT and J.P. Morgan estimates. Data through March 2013.

10 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Truckload Capacity Analysis Truckload Fleet Size (# of Tractors) Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Fleet Size at Large Carriers Has Been Declining

11 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA Transport Stock Performance Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan Estimates. As of June 12, 2013 (intraday) YTD Performance for the Transportation Stocks through June 12, 2013 (intraday)

12 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Among Truckload Carriers: Western Express, Marten, and CRST Malone (Flatbed) Are Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

13 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Among LTL, Small Package, and Drayage Carriers: Only Roadrunner Is Deficient on 2 or More BASIC Scores Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

14 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Unsafe Driving – Performance Threshold of 60% or 65% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

15 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Hours of Service (HOS) Compliance – Perf. Threshold of 60% or 65% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

16 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Driver Fitness – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

17 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Controlled Substances and Alcohol – Perf. Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

18 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis BASIC Score Comparison: Vehicle Maintenance – Performance Threshold of 75% or 80% Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

19 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Comparison of Inspection Rates (Total per Driver) Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

20 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Comparison of Crash Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100 Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

21 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Comparison of Injuries or Fatalities Ratios (Total per Driver) – Score Is Out of 100 Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

22 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Comparison of Vehicle Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

23 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA CSA Analysis Comparison of Driver Out-of-Service Orders Issued as a Result of an Inspection Source: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

24 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA

25 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA

26 Airfreight and Surface Transportation: Presentation to the MCSAC Subcommittee on CSA