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Industry Update for: FEI – St. Louis Chapter February 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Industry Update for: FEI – St. Louis Chapter February 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Industry Update for: FEI – St. Louis Chapter February 2012

2 Macro Economic Indicators

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9 Total Inventories Source: U.S. Census Bureau, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

10 ISM - PMI Index

11 Cass Freight Index Source: Cass Freight Systems Index to 1990 base

12 Cass Freight Shipments Source: Cass Freight Systems: February 2012

13 Cass Freight Expenditures Source: Cass Freight Systems: February 2012

14 Dry TL Freight Demand Source: Morgan Stanley Freight Index – February 26, 2012

15 TL Spot Market Demand Source: ITS – February 20, 2012

16 TL Dry Van Rates

17 Flatbed TL Rates

18 Refrigerated TL Rates

19 Spot Market TL Pricing

20 Capacity Constraints

21 Large Fleet Reductions Source: BB&T Capital Markets, June 2011 Company-owned Tractors Have Shrunk More than 12% Compared to a Roughly 2% Shrinkage in Owner-Operators

22 US Class 8 Orders and Production

23 Drivers for Tractors Likely Severe Driver Shortage –CSA2010  Will impact the number of available drivers in the industry  ATA estimates CSA will result in a 5-7% reduction –HOS  Possible reduction of 1 hour in daily driving hours will reduce carrier capacity  10 hrs vs 11 hrs is a 9% reduction in drive time –EOBR requirement  Most impact to smaller fleets & O/O

24 Driver Pay Trends

25 Diesel Prices

26 Total Trucks Parked from Failure Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Avondale Partners, LLC (vs. Diesel Fuel Prices)

27 Less than Truckload

28 Ocean

29 Intermodal Volume

30 Rail Car

31 Air Freight

32 Short Term Landscape  Increasing freight demand  Capacity tightening  Supply/demand equation favors carriers (and rate increases)  Intermodal volumes continue to rise  Diesel fuel prices – increasing dramatically  Shippers looking for partners with flexibility and more comprehensive solutions

33 Top Challenges (Next 2-5 Years)  Tightening driver market  Government regulations –CSA 2010 –Hours of Service (HOS) –EOBR mandates  Aging equipment leads to replacement at higher cost basis –Price increases passed on to shippers  Highway infrastructure – congestion and deterioration –Leads to increased intermodal volumes  Access to capital

34 SCM Actions The Bermuda Triangle facing logistics and supply chain managers consists of:  A lack of planning  A rigid network that is incapable of flexing when uncertainty occurs  A myopic internal focus

35 SCM Actions The top five most mature actions are: (1) Core carrier utilization (2) Dedicated transportation (3) Carrier tracking (4) Load planning (5) Shipment consolidation LACK OF PLANNING

36 SCM Actions Tactical & Operational (1) The use of multiple transportation modes to meet delivery schedules (2) The use of freight brokers (3)Training your people to think on their feet INFLEXIBLE NETWORK Strategic (1) Reduce supply and order-fulfillment lead time (2)Improving integration of information systems with external customers and suppliers (3)Increasing collaboration with key suppliers (4)Challenging your own organization to lean toward change

37 SCM Actions Recommendations are: (1) Sales and operations planning (S&OP) (2) Company-wide inventory reduction initiatives (3) Implement increased collaboration with key customers and suppliers INTERNAL FOCUS


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