Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Violent extremism in Iraq and Syria Marcus DuBois King, Ph.D. John O. Rankin Associate Professor August 24, 2015

Water Scarcity and Extremism Project: Key Hypotheses (H1) Water scarcity is one causal factor in the Syria and Iraq conflict (H2) Water “weaponzation” is accelerating and perpetuating the conflict

A satellite view (2014) showing the two main rivers running from Turkey through Syria and Iraq. Credits: MODIS/NASA

Map of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria First Level: Second Level: Third Level: Fourth Level Effects from human responses Examples: Inadequate policy responses, mass migrations, conflict   Effect on ecological systems Example: droughts, desertification Effect on human systems Example: severe stress on agriculture, food security Changes in physical environment Example: higher temperatures Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria First level: Changes in physical environment Example: higher temperatures Second level: Effect on ecological systems Example: droughts, desertification Third Level: Effect on human systems Example: severe stress on agriculture, food security Fourth Level: Examples: mass migrations, conflict

Hypothesis 1: Conclusions Climate change induced water scarcity played a meaningful but complicated role in creating desperate conditions that led to political unrest and ultimately violent insurrection. Violence was perpetrated by IS and others. Drought, food insecurity, poverty and migration were progressive effects that led to desperation. More study needed to assign relative weight to effects. Projected climate change will worsen in next 10-20 years NEXT SECTION: water “weaponzation” is also causing lasting damage to the vulnerable populations

Categories of Water Weaponization (based on perpetrators intent) Strategic Weaponization Tactical Weaponization Instrument of Psychological Terrorism Instrument of Extortion and Incentivization Unintentional Weaponization

Water as a Weapon in Syria and Iraq: Incidents Workbook 23 9 13 11 6 4   Category Totals Syria Iraq Strategic Weaponization 23 9 13 Tactical 11 6 Psychological Terrorism 4 Unintentional Weaponization 7 1 Incentivization 2 N/A

Combatants’ Use of Water as a Weapon No. of Attributed Incidents ISIS 21 Free Syrian Army 2 Syrian regime 3 Iraqi Kurds 1 Jabhat Al Nusra Islamist Sharia Council ISF 4 Other NA 6

Water Weaponization by Cluster and Combatants Source: King and Allers 2015

H2: Islamic State: Use of the Water Weapon IS threat to use the water weapon was the key accelerant that precipitated U.S. direct involvement Use of the water weapon has been a critical enabler and perpetuator of the IS war campaign Use of the water weapon is problematic from a legal and theological standpoint. Successful denial of IS’s ability to use the water weapon may be the decisive element in determining whether they can be defeated.

Recommendations for U.S. Engagement   Defense: First, do no harm. Prevent military ecological damage to water bodies and installations. Apply understanding of IS’s use of the water weapon to Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies. Development: Incorporate restoration of water infrastructure as high priority in post-conflict stabilization programs Diplomacy: Support creation of a river commission and application and enforcement of international laws ENMOD and the Geneva Convention Additional Protocol II.

QUESTIONS? mdking@gwu

Drought map: Erian, W., Katlan, B. & Babah, O. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria, The United Nations Office for Disaster and Risk Reduction ISIS map: 'Syria: Mapping the conflict - BBC News ', BBC News, 10 July 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22798391>, (accessed on 05 August 2015).