1. Climate Security 101 Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell Co-Directors The Center for Climate & Security www.climateandsecurity.org - www.climatesecurity101.org

2. Is Climate Change A Security Risk? THREAT MULTIPLIER - or accelerant of instability, exacerbates existing risks to security. DIRECT THREAT - on critical infrastructure underpinning a nation’s security. INDIRECT THREAT - Increases stresses on critical resources underpinning a nation’s security, including water, food & energy. High Probability, High Impact Risk (WEF Global Risk Report)

3. Why Does the Security Community Care About Climate Change? RISKS TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Sea level rise, storm surge, wildfires compromise military installations and operations, & critical economic hubs. GEOSTRATEGIC RISKS Climate change increases state fragility and possibility of international tensions in strategically- significant regions CONFLICT AVOIDANCE Climate stress on water, food & energy increases the likelihood of mass displacement, instability and conflict. BIG BLUE RABBIT Gen. McLeod, PACOM “Call it climate change, call it the big blue rabbit…— the military has to respond to those kinds of things.”

4. When Did This All Start? A Climate Security Chronology 1990s: CIA Environmental Task Force, MEDEA program 2003: DoD Office of Net Assessment, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario & Its Implications for US National Security 2007: CNA Military Advisory Board Report: National Security & the Threat of Climate Change 2008: National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 2009: Establishment of the U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change 2010: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review 2011: Defense Science Board Report, “Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security” 2012: U.S. DoD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap 2014: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review 2015: G7, A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks report 2015: U.S. National Security Strategy See the Climate Security Resource Hub for full list 1990s 2003 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sampling of Significant Climate Security Reports/Actions

5. Can Climate Change Cause War & Conflict? * Not Likely Primary Cause of War Between Nations Increases Likelihood of Intra-state Conflict & Instability A Factor in Existing Sub-national Conflicts Historical Record Not Sufficient For Predicting Climatic Impact on Future Conflicts Foresight Exercises, & “Games,” are Important

6. ARCTIC: Ice Melt & Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics With Russia CENTRAL ASIA: Fed By Glacial Waters, Pakistan Vulnerable INDO-ASIA PACIFIC: Growing Coastal And Urban Population, South China Sea FRAGILE STATES: Greatest Impact On Unstable, Conflict- Prone Regions MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA: Political & Demographic Realities, Combined With Climate Change Where Is Climate Change The Biggest Threat To Security?

7. How Can We Address The Security Risks Of Climate Change? Comprehensive Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Policies Incorporating Climate Into National, Homeland Security, Defense, Diplomatic And Development Strategies Recognizing a U.S. National Security Consensus On Climate Change Addressing Climate At Collective Security Institutions Climate-proofing Efforts To Enhance Food, Water And Energy Security Developing Legal And Institutional Structures To Manage Migration As A Climate Adaptation Strategy Incorporating Climate Concerns Into Military-Military And Civilian- Military Cooperation On Disaster Risk Reduction Improving Understanding Of How Climate Change Pressures Interact With State Stability And State Legitimacy Reducing the Risk Profile Via Adaptation and Mitigation

8. Pillars of a More Climate Secure World RESEARCHPOLICYCOMMUNICATIONS CROSS-SECTORAL COLLABORATION

9. Sources Conflict 2015: Werrell, Femia and Sternberg, “Did We See it Coming? State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt,” SAIS Review of International Affairs, Volume 35, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2015, pp. 29-46Did We See it Coming? State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt 2014 : USAID: Climate Change and Conflict, Findings and Lessons Learned from Five Case Studies in Seven Countries 2012: Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest. Femia, F. and Werrel, C. Center for Climate and SecurityUSAID: Climate Change and ConflictSyria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest 2012: Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict. Journal of Peace Research. Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict Where biggest threat 2013: The Arab Spring and Climate Change. Werrell, C. and Femia, F. Center for Climate and Security, Center for American Porgress, The Stimson Center.The Arab Spring and Climate Change 2013: Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource Security. Mabey, N. et al., E3G 2012: Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in Northwest Africa Rising Dangers and Policy Options Across the Arc of Tension. Werz, M. and Conley, L. Center for American Progress and Heinrich Böll Stiftung 2012: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea. Cronin, P. et al., Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource Security Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in Northwest Africa Rising Dangers and Policy Options Across the Arc of TensionCooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea How do we address security risks 2015: Climate and Security Working Group recommendations (available upon request) 2015: Climate Change as Threat Multiplier: Understanding the Broader Nature of the Risk, Center for Climate and Security 2014: “National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change,” CNA CorporationClimate Change as Threat Multiplier: Understanding the Broader Nature of the RiskNational Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change 2012: Protecting Americans in the 21st Century: Communicating Priorities for 2012 and Beyond. National Homeland Security Consortium. 2011: Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security. Mabey, N. et al. E3GProtecting Americans in the 21st Century: Communicating Priorities for 2012 and Beyond.Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security Why does security community care 2014: Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department of Defense 2014: National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change, CNA Corporation 2014: Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of Defense 2014: US Navy Arctic Roadmap: U.S. Department of the Navy Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate ChangeQuadrennial Defense ReviewUS Navy Arctic Roadmap 2011: Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security: Department of Defense Defense Science Board Task Force Report

10. Read More The Center for Climate and Security: www.climateandsecurity.org www.climateandsecurity.org Climate Security Resource Hub: www.climateandsecurity.org/resources www.climateandsecurity.org/resources Climate Security 101: www.climatesecurity101.org www.climatesecurity101.org