Building on the Building Blocks: Possibilities and Pitfalls on the Road to Durban Andrew Light Director, International Climate Policy, Center for American Progress & Associate Director, Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy, George Mason University 1

Building on the Building Blocks 1.Climate Diplomacy to Cancun 2.Paths to Governance? Kyoto vs. Copenhagen 3.An Agenda for Durban 2

1. Climate Diplomacy to Cancun 3

Climate Diplomacy to Cancun The first Climate Treaty: UNFCCC, 1992/ parties – consensus model. - “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities” (CBDR) Kyoto Protocol, 1998/ Annex 1 (5.2% below 1990 by 2012) vs. Non-Annex 1. July 1997, US opts out. Byrd- Hagel Resolution on KP, Bali Action Plan, NAMAs. Emission reductions from emerging emitters in exchange for finance and technology. - Creation of AWG-LCA. 4

Climate Diplomacy to Cancun Dec. 2009: The Copenhagen Accord. - First part of intended “two step” proposal by Danes. - Aspiration to limit temperature increase to 2C. - $30B fast start climate financing, ; $100B annual fund by Outline of an agreement on Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV). - Requirement that parties associated with accord submit emission reduction plans by end of January

The Cancun Agreements Dec. 2010: Against all expectation achieve political consensus on building blocks from Copenhagen Accord expanding agreements on mitigation, adaptation, MRV, technology, forestry, finance. - Creation of “Green Climate Fund.” Specification on transitional committee. - Agreement on MRV for non- supported developing country actions: “International Consultation and Analysis.” - Creation of “Climate Technology Center” -- hub and spoke model. - Showdown with Bolivia challenges consensus process – extended to Mexico-PNG proposal on ¾ voting rule. 6

2.Paths to Governance?: Kyoto vs. “Copenhagen” 7

88 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA.

99 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition).

10 Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.).

Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto Path“Copenhagen Path” - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market- Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.” 11

Deadlock from Bonn intersessional negotiations over past two weeks: Focus on second commitment period for Kyoto or focus on building out Cancun building blocks. 12

Presumed Open Paths to Governance Kyoto PathCopenhagen Path - Build out from existing- Build out from alternate treaty architecture. path in AWG-LCA. - Focus on legally binding- Legally binding or mechanisms (expectation not. of low ambition). - Treaty obligations drive- National interests drive mitigation goals. goals (savings, energy security, etc.). - Enforcement through market- Enforcement through exclusion. “shame and blame.” - Covers ~35% of emissions.*- Covers ~80% emissions. 13

3. An Agenda for Durban 14

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Problem: While emission commitments go to 2020, finance commitments only go to 2012, resuming in

Minimum Gap (billions) Fast Start Funding Copenhagen Pledge Internationa l Offsets Maintain “Fast Start” level (includes inflation) Assume doubling in real terms (includes emissions permit auction revenues) Assumes delay of non-EU carbon markets Traditional Climate Foreign Aid Ramp-up urgently needed Midpoint Increase Climate Foreign Aid “Ramp-up” Period Additional $60 billion over three years

No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. 19

20 No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency.

21 No traction without finance – more important up to 2020 traction than new emission pledges. But this won’t happen unless South Africa sets an aggressive agenda from the COP presidency. Opportunity: US-EU dispute over extension of ETS to air travel in January Next step: July 5th hearing in Luxembourg in suit by three US air carriers against EU.

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